https://vimeo.com/85816848
Sen. John McCain on Russia’s airstrikes in Syria
Shades of Churchill in 1938:
Winston Churchill, denouncing the Munich Agreement in the House of Commons, declared:
“We have suffered a total and unmitigated defeat … you will find that in a period of time which may be measured by years, but may be measured by months, Czechoslovakia will be engulfed in the Nazi régime. We are in the presence of a disaster of the first magnitude … we have sustained a defeat without a war, the consequences of which will travel far with us along our road … we have passed an awful milestone in our history, when the whole equilibrium of Europe has been deranged, and that the terrible words have for the time being been pronounced against the Western democracies: “Thou art weighed in the balance and found wanting”. And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.”
On 3 October 1938, Churchill added:
“England has been offered a choice between war and shame. She has chosen shame, and will get war.”
Why Europe Failed
Dr Oliver Hartwich of The New Zealand Initiative discusses his new book, Why Europe Failed.
Over the past years, we have become used to Europe’s debt crisis. However, the fiscal problems of countries such as Greece are only the tip of the iceberg. Europe’s crisis has much deeper roots. Here, Dr Hartwich explains the causes of Europe’s decline.
Why we need to end the War on Drugs | TED
“Prohibition is not the ultimate in regulation — it is the abdication of regulation.”
Is the War on Drugs doing more harm than good? In a bold talk, drug policy reformist Ethan Nadelmann makes an impassioned plea to end the “backward, heartless, disastrous” movement to stamp out the drug trade. He gives two big reasons we should focus on intelligent regulation instead.
Window on Eurasia: Kyiv Must Work to Isolate Moscow Rather than Negotiate with It
From Paul Goble:
Staunton, August 11 – Up to now, Ukraine has made “a serious error” by trying to negotiate with Russia about the Donbas, Bogdan Yeremenko [former Ukrainian diplomat] says. What it should be doing is devoting all its efforts to isolating Russia internationally. That will have far more impact on Moscow’s behavior than any talks Ukraine might have with it……
Up to now, Russia has acted more effectively than Ukraine by “imposing its will and taking the initiative both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.” Ukraine in contrast “has held fast to a disastrous strategy responding with diplomacy to armed aggression and reducing the opportunities of its own Armed Forces.”
“…..Diplomatic efforts ought to be concentrated not on talks with Russia but on the creation for it of an uncomfortable foreign policy environment and the resolution of practical issues of securing the defense capacity of the country.”
Read more at Window on Eurasia — New Series: Kyiv Must Work to Isolate Moscow Rather than Negotiate with It, Yeremenko Says.
Japan Escalates Its Standoff With China in the South China Sea | VICE News
By Jennifer Peters
July 22, 2015 | 8:45 am
Japan has put its foot down — at least in writing — over China’s attempts to assert greater control of the South China Sea.
….Japan isn’t the only one pushing back against China’s expansion in the region. The Philippines is taking China to court over territorial claims to the South China Sea, with top Filipino officials appearing at The Hague to argue their case before a United Nations arbitral tribunal. China has called it a “political provocation.”
“The Chinese take kind of a Leninist approach to these things,” [Kelley Currie, a senior fellow with the Project 2049 Institute] said. “They probe with the bayonet until they hit steel, and then they’ll stop. When they start to see that people are serious about pushing back, then they will back off a bit.”
Read more at With a Few Words, Japan Escalates Its Standoff With China in the South China Sea | VICE News.
War is politics by other means…Putin’s goals are political
From Brian Whitmore at RFERL:
….War is politics by other means and the Kremlin’s goals in Donbas are ultimately political.
Vladimir Putin may have once dreamed of seizing all of what his propagandists call Novorossia — the strip of land from Kharkiv to Odesa — and establishing a land bridge to Crimea.
But that’s off the table now and he is clearly not interested in annexing the war-ravaged and economically devastated enclaves his separatists currently hold.
“The Kremlin, for its part, is losing interest in the armed conflict it helped create: It wants to move on from military interference in Ukraine to quieter political destabilization,” political commentator Leonid Bershidsky wrote in Bloomberg View.
….If you want to see Ukraine’s future under this scenario, just look at Bosnia.
Read more at How Do You Solve A Problem Like The Donbas?.
“We should be ashamed”…Isis could have been ‘nipped in the bud’ four years ago
The rise of extremist terror group Islamic State (Isis) could have been avoided if the UK began attacks on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2013, according to two former defence chiefs.
“It’s a great shame, something that we should be ashamed of, that we could have nipped this problem in the bud four years ago, but failed to do so,” said Lord David Richards, a former general and the UK’s chief of defence staff from 2011 to 2013 under Prime Minister David Cameron.
“….if anything encouraged Isis at that point, it was that decision,” said Lord George Robertson, Nato secretary general from 1999 to 2004, and UK defence secretary from 1997 to 1999. “It was that fact of a failure of will on the part of the Western powers,” he added, that also encouraged Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade Crimea in 2013.
….”We are our own worst enemy. We simply ignore problems,” said Robertson, who urged the UK’s politicians to do more to convince the public why the government needs to take military action. “Unless people are convinced there are things worth fighting for, then we’ll be in trouble….”
Reminds me of:
“All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” ~ from the film adaptation of Tolstoy’s War and Peace.
Often misattributed to Edmund Burke who wrote: “When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”
Read more at Isis could have been 'nipped in the bud' with attack on Assad in 2013 say ex UK defence chiefs.
The key to economic prosperity is good governance
Podcast: Francis Fukuyama on the importance of good governance [05:23].
It is time we started raising the bar for our own political system.
The Long War [podcast]
Excellent insight into the long-term implications of conflict between Russia and the West. Hosted by Brian Whitmore (RFE/Power Vertical) and co-host Mark Galeotti, New York University professor and expert on Russia's security services, with guest James Sherr, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program.
Podcast: The Long War
It's going to be a protracted conflict and Ukraine is just the first major battle.
It's going to be fought in different ways and on multiple fronts: on NATO's eastern frontier; over the countries of former Soviet Union, in the energy market, over the airwaves, and in cyberspace.
We should have no illusions. The West's conflict with Russia is not going away anytime soon, regardless of how the current standoff in Ukraine is resolved.
And what is at stake is nothing short of the future of the international order.
This ain't no Cold War. Russia isn't strong enough for that.
But according to The Russia Challenge, a widely read and highly influential report issued by Chatham House last week, it is shaping up to be a Long War. A protracted looking-glass conflict with a weakening, but still very dangerous, Russia.
On the latest Power Vertical Podcast, we discuss the new Chatham House report and its recommendations.
The panel make some important points:
- The post-Soviet transition to a modern democracy was poorly handled by the West and left Russians with a deep distrust of their motives.
- The most important response to asymmetric warfare is good governance. The last 15 years shows a series of unmitigated blunders that would leave an independent observer with serious questions as to the competence of Western democracies. The West, Ukraine and Baltic States all need to get their house in order.
- Conventional weapons are important, but the primary response should focus on improved intelligence and policing.