Analysis of major stock markets around the world.
The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5380. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 5400 would suggest another advance. Respect of 5380 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650
ASX 200 VIX below 15 indicates low market risk.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index recovered above primary support at 3000. Reversal below 3000 would signal a primary decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding below zero continues to suggest a down-trend. Breakout above 3180 is unlikely at present, but would signal a primary advance to 3300*.
* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 3000 ) = 3300
India’s Sensex continues to test primary support at 20000. Recovery above 20500 would indicate another test of 21500. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of support, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000
A weakening Dollar/Yen exchange rate is hurting Japanese stocks. The Nikkei 225 is testing support at 14000 after breach of the rising trendline indicated weak momentum. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of 14000 would strengthen the signal, while breach of 13200 would confirm. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely, but would suggest another advance.
* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000
China’s Shanghai Composite Index recovered above 2100, suggesting another test of 2250. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero reflects indecision typical of a broad consolidation. Breakout above 2250 would complete a reversal, but breach of 1950 remains as likely and would warn of a decline to the 2008 low of 1700*.
* Target calculation: 1950 – ( 2200 – 1950 ) = 1700
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index displays a large bullish ascending triangle on the monthly chart. Breakout above 24000 is more likely and would signal a primary advance, but reversal below the rising trendline would warn of a decline to 20000.
The FTSE 100 is headed for another test of 6850 after recovering above 6600. Completion of a higher trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would flag buying pressure. Failure of primary support at 6400 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
Germany’s DAX paints a similar picture to Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50. Recovery above 9600 suggests an advance to 10600*. Breakout above 9800 would confirm. Completion of another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough high above zero would signal strong long-term buying pressure. Reversal below the latest rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 9000.
* Target calculation: 9800 + ( 9800 – 9000 ) = 10600
DAX Volatility below 20 suggests a bull market.
Both the Euro and Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index are bullish.
Euro recovery above $1.37, the high of February 2013, suggests another advance. Breakout above $1.38 would confirm. Breach of the (secondary) rising trendline and declining Twiggs Momentum, however, warn of a weak trend. Reversal below $1.35 would test primary support at $1.33.
* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.33 ) = 1.43
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is stronger, recovering above 3100 to indicate an advance to 3350*. Follow-through above 3180 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero reflects a healthy up-trend. Breach of the secondary trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 2920.
* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 2950 ) = 3350
Canada’s TSX 60 is testing the January high at 806. Higher troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggest strong buying pressure. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 770. Expect long-term resistance at the 2011 high of 820*.
* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 740 ) = 820
New lows on the TSX 60 VIX flag a strong bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 broke through its January high, signaling an advance to 3800*. Retreat below the (secondary) rising trendline is unlikely, but would test primary support at 3400. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough high above zero indicates strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800
The S&P 500 is testing similar resistance at 1850. Breakout would signal an advance to 1950*. Respect is unlikely, given the Nasdaq breakout, but would warn of another correction. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would be a bullish sign.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.
