Stock Markets Archives - Page 115 of 170

July 10, 2013

S&P 500 hesitates but ASX 200 follows through

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1650. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for the advance would be 1800*. Follow-through above 1660 would strengthen the bull signal, but reversal below 1640 would warn of another test of 1600 — and a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern (as shown by the arrows) if support at 1600 is respected.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The ASX 200 found resistance at 4900, with a tall shadow (or wick) on Wednesday’s candle. A healthy start this morning suggests a test of 5000. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 9, 2013

ASX 200 rallies despite weakness in Asia

An outside day reversal on Japan’s Nikkei 225 warns of retracement to test support at 13500. Respect of support — or a trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy up-trend. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 12500.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing long-term support at 1950 — as shown on the monthly chart. Failure of support is likely and would warn of a test of the 2008 low at 1700. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Respect of support at 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2400/2500.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

India’s Sensex respected its rising trendline and is likely to test resistance at 20000. Breach of resistance would signal a primary advance, with a target of 22000*. Reversal below 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index remains weak after finding support at 3100. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero after bearish divergence would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 3100 would confirm. Recovery above 3300, while unlikely, would signal a fresh primary advance.

Straits Times Index

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 4860, indicating the correction is over. Follow-through above 4900 would strengthen the signal. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates healthy medium-term buying pressure. Breach of resistance at 5000 would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 9, 2013

European rally follows US lead

The S&P 500 Index penetrated its descending trendline, indicating the correction has ended. Follow-through above 1650 would signal a primary advance to 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The FTSE 100 broke through medium-term resistance at 6400, confirming the correction has ended, after earlier penetrating its descending trendline. Follow-through above 6500 (from the March 2013 peak) would strengthen the signal, indicating an advance to 6900. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would also strengthen the signal. In the long term, breakout above 7000 would offer a target of 8000*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 8000. Breakout above that and the declining trendline would signal another primary advance, with a target of 9300*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Respect of resistance and reversal below 7700 is less likely, but would warn of a test of prmary support at 7400.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

Italy’s MIB Index is consolidating below resistance at 16000. Penetration of the declining trendline suggests the correction is over. Breach of resistance would signal an advance to 18000. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would test primary support at 15000.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index broke resistance at 800 and its descending trendline, indicating the correction is over. We still need to watch the weak 21-day Twiggs Money Flow: a peak below zero would indicate selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest a fresh advance. Respect of the new support level at 800 would confirm an advance to 870. Reversal below 800, while unlikely, would warn of another test of primary support at 750.
FTSE 100 Index

July 7, 2013

ASX 200 threatens breakout

The ASX 200 has also penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting the correction is over. Breakout above 4850 would signal a test of 5250. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Target for a break above 5000 would be 5850* to 6000. Respect of 4850/4900 is unlikely but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 7, 2013

S&P500 tide changing

The VIX retreated below 15, signaling that market risk is falling.

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 is testing its declining trendline after a brief consolidation above 1600. Penetration would suggest that the correction is over; confirmed if resistance at 1650 is broken. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is leveling out and a trough above the line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for an advance would be 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The TSX Composite index penetrated its declining trendline, suggesting that the correction is over. Follow-through above 12250 would strengthen the signal, while a rise above 12400 would confirm. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure. Target for an advance would be 12900/13000. Reversal below 11900 is now unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index

July 1, 2013

Europe rallies despite broad selling pressure

The FTSE 100 respected its rising trendline and long-term support at 6000, indicating another test of 6750. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Retreat below 6000 would signal a primary reversal.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX also signals strong selling pressure, but recovery above 8000 would suggest another primary advance. Continued respect of the long-term rising trendline reflects a healthy up-trend.
DAX Index

Italy’s MIB Index respected primary support at 15000. Follow-through above 15500 would indicate another test of 17500. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates healthy buying pressure.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index is edging lower, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow falling below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Recovery above 800 would suggest another weak rally, while failure of support at 750/760 would offer a long-term target of the 2012 low at 600*.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

July 1, 2013

Asia rallies but ASX meets resistance

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 13500, indicating the correction is over. Expect a re-test of the May high at 16000. Reversal below 13500, however, would mean another test of 12500. A trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy primary up-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index

Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected support at 250, the long tail on both the $DJSH and Shanghai Composite indicating strong buying pressure. Expect a rally to test resistance at 275 (2150 on the Shanghai Composite), but the primary trend remains downward and resistance at 275 (2150) is likely to hold.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

India’s Sensex rallied off its rising trendline, suggesting that the primary up-trend will continue. Follow-through above 19500 would indicate a test of resistance at 20000/20200. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of a reversal and would only be refuted by a breakout above 20200 (or a rise above the May peak on TMF).

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 respected its descending trendline at 4800 and is headed for another test of support at 4650. A peak below zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy down-trend. Breach of 4650 would test the key long-term support level of 4400, while respect would mean another test of 4900. In the longer term, respect of 4400 would be bullish, but failure of support would be a strong bear signal.

ASX 200 Index

The ASX Small Ordinaries, by contrast, exhibits a stronger bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating buying support. Breakout above 1960 would indicate the latest primary decline is over, while reversal below 1880 would offer a target of 1800. Small Caps have been badly mauled over the last two years and at some point will present an opportunity to value investors. Unfortunately that end is not yet in sight.
ASX Small Ordinaries Index

July 1, 2013

S&P500 falters while TSX rises

The S&P 500 rally appears to be faltering. Reversal below 1600 would suggest another decline, with a target of 1500*. Breach of support at 1560 would confirm, while reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal.

S&P 500 Index

The June quarter ended with the S&P 500 above its new support level at 1550. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates a healthy up-trend, but the tall shadow (or wick as some call it) on the latest candle suggests otherwise. Reversal below 1500 would warn of a correction to the rising trendline, around 1400.

S&P 500 Index
Breakout of VIX above 25 would signal increased market risk.

S&P 500 Index

A false break below primary support on the TSX Composite index was followed by a rally above 12000. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest that the correction is over, but a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of selling pressure — and reversal below 11900 would confirm the primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index

June 25, 2013

S&P500 holds strong while Canada and Europe weaken

10-Year Treasury yields broke resistance at 2.50% as bond-holders offload their positions. Expect weak retracement to test the new support level at 2.00%, but recovery above 2.50% is likely and would signal a long-term advance to test resistance at 4.00%. Breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover, enabling the Fed to curtail further quantitative easing.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 broke support at 1600 and is undergoing a correction to test the long-term rising trendline at 1500. Twiggs Money Flow reflects moderate selling and the primary up-trend looks secure.

S&P 500 Index
My concern is: can the US withstand negative sentiment from global markets? The rising VIX is not yet cause for alarm, with the market shrugging off the last foray above 20, but a spike above 25 would warn of elevated risk.

VIX Index

The TSX Composite broke support at 11900/12000 to signal a primary down-trend. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2012 low at 11250.

TSX Composite Index

The FTSE 100 is testing the rising trendline and support at 6000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Failure of support at 6000 would strengthen the signal.

FTSE 100

Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of the long-term trendline and primary support at 7400/7500. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of 7400 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

DAX

June 25, 2013

ASX and Asian selling pressure

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index respected support at 12500 and its long-term rising trendline, but another test is likely in the week ahead. Follow-through above 13500 would indicate the correction is over, suggesting a re-test of resistance at 16000. Breach of 12500, however, is more likely, with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of a reversal.

Nikkei 225 Index

Shanghai Composite Index is falling sharply. So far the down-trend has been gradual, with the PBOC looking to manufacture a soft landing. But 13-week Twiggs Money Flow crossing below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Breach of support at 1950 would offer a target of 1600*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 1600

India’s Sensex breached its rising trendline, warning that the primary up-trend is weakening. Failure of support at 18000 would signal a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates trend reversal is likely. Recovery above 19000 is unlikely, but would suggest a fresh primary advance.

BSE Sensex Index

Apart from Japan, the outlook for Asia is bearish.

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of support at 4400, bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow having warned of a reversal. Failure of support at 4400 would re-test the 2011 lows, while respect would be bullish — suggesting another attempt at 5000.

ASX 200 Index