Analysis of major stock markets around the world.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply on Thursday, accompanied by strong volume. Failure of support at 10700 would complete the dead cat bounce, offering a target of the 2010 low at 9600*.
* Target calculation: 10800 – ( 12000 – 10800 ) = 9600
Total estimated outflows from long-term mutual funds were $16.94 billion for the week ended Wednesday, August 3, the Investment Company Institute reported today.
Question from Flint:
If this is an example of a dead cat bounce then what would we look for in a real bounce… .
The best example I can find is the mini-crash of October 1997. The Dow gapped down sharply following a fall in Asian markets, but met with strong buying support the next day. The total correction of 12% did not reach the 6400 level from start of the year. The long-term rising trendline was not tested and 63-Day Twiggs Momentum declined but failed to break below zero. Volume doubled in the week following the crash, confirming buying support.
The 2011 crash is not specific to one region as with the 1997 Asian crisis. The index had not made much progress for the year and the fall of 17% broke well below the starting level of 11500. The long-term rising trendline was breached and 63-Day Twiggs Momentum dropped sharply below zero. Volume doubled in the week following the crash, as in 1997, but this is a completely different scenario: it would take similar volume for 4/5 successive weeks to stop the bear market in its tracks.
The FTSE 100 closed above 5300, indicating a rally to test resistance at 5600. This behavior is again typical of the early “denial” stage of a bear market. Resistance is likely to hold, leading to another test of 5000. In the longer term, failure of support at 5000 would offer a target of 4400*.
* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5600 – 5000 ) = 4400
The DAX rallied strongly, headed for a test of 6500 on the weekly chart. The bear market is not over, even if resistance is penetrated.
* Target calculation: 6500 – ( 7500 – 6500 ) = 5500
A CAC-40 recovery above 3250 would signal a rally to test 3700. Expect resistance to hold, followed by another test of 3000*.
* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3700 – 3000 ) = 2300
The TSX Composite retraced to test the new resistance level at 12750. Declining volume and Friday’s red candle warn that buyers are losing interest. Reversal below 12400 would complete an evening star candlestick reversal.
* Target calculation: 11600 – ( 12800 – 11600 ) = 10400
We have a clear bear market signal across a wide range of indexes and current behavior is typical of the early “Denial” stage. If we look at 2008, the Dow broke primary support at 12800 in January, falling sharply before encountering strong buying support at 12000, signaled by weekly volume over 1.5 billion [1]. The rally failed, but buyers again snapped up bargains, with weekly volumes [2] above 1.5 billion. A third rally even penetrated resistance, but buyers soon lost interest and the next down-swing [3] led to a strong bear market over the next year.
Current buying support, with weekly volume close to 2 billion [4] is typical of the first stage of a bear market . Expect a rally to test 12000 followed by another test of support between 10600 and 10800.
* Target calculation: 10800 – (11800 – 10800 ) = 9800
Friday’s doji candlestick on the S&P 500 Index indicates hesitancy, and 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breakout above 1200 would indicate a similar rally to test 1260, but reversal below 1100 would signal another down-swing.
* Target calculation: 1125 – ( 1250 – 1125 ) = 1000
The Nasdaq 100 Index displays stronger buying support, as evidenced by the long tail and small bullish divergence on the weekly chart. Expect penetration of resistance at 2200, but the primary trend remains downward and reversal below 2200 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 2200 – ( 2400 – 2200 ) = 2000
For those who follow classic Dow Theory, the Transport Index broke below 5000, confirming the bear market. 63-Day Momentum further strengthened the signal with a strong fall below zero.
* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5600 – 5000 ) = 4400
The main long-term risk is that after two massive bubbles and two equally massive resurrection programs, the Fed may be out of ammunition. Should more building blocks fall (government bond downgrade and further market declines have missed my deadline) and a serious global double-dip develop, then the pattern of market behavior this time may be more historically typical. That is, instead of quickly recovering, markets will become cheap and stay below long-term averages for several years as was the case pre-Greenspan.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke primary support at 11800 but encountered buying Friday around the former primary level of 11500. We may witness retracement to test resistance at 11800, but this is expected to be overwhelmed by sellers. Medium-term target for the down-swing is 10800*.
* Target calculation: 11800 – ( 12800 – 11800 ) = 10800
The Nasdaq 100 fared better, recovering above primary support at 2180. But Twiggs Money Flow below zero, and the earlier bearish divergence, warn of strong selling pressure. Failure of support is likely and would offer a target of 1920*.
* Target calculation: 2180 – ( 2440 – 2180 ) = 1920
The TSX Composite Index was one of the first markets to enter a primary down-trend and has now confirmed with a break below the latest support level at 12750. Expect some support at the target of 12000* but the July 2010 low of 11000 beckons.
* Target calculation: 12750 – ( 13500 – 12750 ) = 12000
The FTSE 100 continued on its downward path, approaching its calculated target at 5100*. Expect some retracement this week, but I would not place much reliance on support at 5100 — strongly suspecting that we will see a test of the June 2010 low at 4800.
* Target calculation: 5600 – ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100
The German DAX index has already passed its initial target of 6500 and is headed for a test of 5600.
* Target calculation: 6500 – ( 7600 – 6500 ) = 5400
A friend at golf yesterday, who still holds a number of stocks, asked if they are likely to fall any further. My answer was that holding on to stocks in this market is like standing in front of a stampeding herd in the hope that it will stop before it reaches you. There may be a short retracement early in the week, but strong selling is expected to overwhelm buying support. On August 3rd I gave the probability of a down-turn as 75 percent. The odds are now about as close to 100 percent as you can get.
The S&P 500 followed through below support at 1250, confirming the primary down-trend. Friday’s brief rally was swamped by further sell orders. The herd has started to move. We are beyond the tipping point.
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