Stock Markets Archives - Page 168 of 170

August 31, 2011April 18, 2024

Reminder: we’re in a bear market

Don’t be fooled by current month-end froth in the markets — into thinking that the bear market is over or that the early August plunge was a false signal. The S&P 500 Index has made little headway after completing a double bottom at 1200 despite average volumes indicating the absence of strong selling. 63-Day Momentum peaking below the zero line indicates a primary down-trend. Expect the bear rally to test resistance at 1250/1260 before a retreat to 1100. Breach of 1100 would find support at the 2010 low of 1000, but the calculated target is even lower*.

S&P500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1250 – 1100 ) = 950

The Nasdaq 100 performed better, clearing 2200 to complete a double bottom with a target of 2350*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. But this is a bear rally in the middle of a bear market, and further falls on the Dow/S&P 500 would drag the Nasdaq lower.

Nasdaq100 Index

* Target calculation: 2200 + ( 2200 – 2050 ) = 2350

Fedex and UPS remain in a primary down-trend, indicating that economic activity levels remain poor.

Fedex and UPS

August 31, 2011

HEARD ON THE STREET: Life in the New Macro World – WSJ.com

Macro issues such as the solvency of European countries and fears of a global economic slowdown have overshadowed fundamental differences between companies. The consequence is that stocks are moving in tandem, indicating a high degree of correlation.

Based on one-month trailing movements, S&P 500-index stocks have a correlation of 80%, even higher than the 73% peak reached during the crisis in late 2008, says Ana Avramovic of Credit Suisse.

via HEARD ON THE STREET: Life in the New Macro World – WSJ.com.

August 30, 2011

$219.2B Pull Out of Mutual Funds in July

The assets held in mutual funds fell $219.2 billion in July – before the announcement that Standard & Poor’s had cut its rating of U.S. debt for the first time ever.

via $219.2B Pull Out of Mutual Funds in July.

August 24, 2011

$1.1B Comes Back into Mutual Funds Investing in U.S. Stocks

Equity funds had estimated inflows of $1.48 billion for the week, compared to estimated outflows of $30.01 billion in the previous week.

via $1.1B Comes Back into Mutual Funds Investing in U.S. Stocks.

August 24, 2011

$40B Flows Out of Mutual Funds. In One Week.

In the week ending August 10, $40.3 billion was pulled out of long-term mutual funds of all types, the Investment Company Institute reported.

via $40B Flows Out of Mutual Funds. In One Week..

August 23, 2011

It’s a bear market

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied Tuesday on fairly light volume. Expect resistance at 11500. This is a bear market, with reactions to good news likely to be short — and declines from bad news severe. Target for the next decline is 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

August 21, 2011

FTSE 100 tests support

The FTSE 100 Index is testing support at 5000. Breakout is likely and would offer a target of 4400*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5600 – 5000 ) = 4400

August 21, 2011

Europe crashes

Germany’s DAX Index is testing support at its 2010 low of 5400. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Failure of support would offer a target of 4500*.

Germany DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5500 – ( 6500 – 5500 ) = 4500

France has fallen well past its 2010 low, testing support at 3000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow again warns of further selling pressure. Breach of 3000 would test the 2009 low of 2500.

France CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3700 – 3000 ) = 2300

Secondary markets are as badly affected. The Amsterdam AEX Index fell below its 2010 low, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.

Netherlands Amsterdam AEX Index

* Target calculation: 300 – ( 340 – 300 ) = 260

August 21, 2011

TSX 60 headed for long-term support

Canada’s TSX 60 Index is falling sharply, headed for medium-term support at 665, but long-term support at 650 is just below. Breakout below 650 would warn of another down-swing, with a target of 580*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580

August 21, 2011

Nasdaq breaks support

The Nasdaq 100 broke support at 2050, warning of a down-swing to 1900*. Follow-through below last week’s low of 2040 would confirm. The latest peak on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, barely breaking the zero line, indicates strong medium-term selling pressure.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2200 – 2050 ) = 1900

The Dow is headed for a similar test: follow-through below 10600 would confirm a down-swing to 9600*. Higher volumes indicate the presence of buyers and failure of support would prove seller’s dominance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 10800 – ( 12000 – 10800 ) = 9600

The S&P 500 is testing support at 1100 on the weekly chart. Failure would signal a test of 1000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1125 – ( 1250 – 1125 ) = 1000