European breakout

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 — representing 50 leading stocks in the Eurozone — broke long-term resistance at 3000, while the 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a healthy up-trend. Expect retracement to test the new support level; respect would signal a primary advance, while failure would test 2850, warning of a bull trap.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

The FTSE 100 is also strengthening, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating buying pressure. Breakout above 6700 would indicate an advance to 7000*. Reversal below support at 6400 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

TSX breakout

Canada’s TSX 60 broke through resistance at 740, signaling a long-term advance to 800*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX below 15 suggests low market risk.

TSX 60 VIX

S&P 500 and Nasdaq bullish while Dow hesitates

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1730, signaling an advance to 1790/1800*. Follow-through above 1750 would confirm. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow troughs close to zero indicate buying pressure. Reversal below 1730 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1650.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790

VIX below 15 signals low market risk.

VIX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for a test of 15700, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of a reversal. Breach of 14800 would confirm. Overall sentiment remains positive, however, and TMF recovery above the descending trendline (20%) would be a bullish sign. Breakout above 15700 would offer a target of 16600*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The Nasdaq 100 is contrastingly bullish, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs well above zero signaling strong buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3050 + ( 3050 – 2800 ) = 3300

S&P 500 breakout

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1700/1710, indicating a primary advance to 1790/1800*. Troughs close to zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggest buying pressure. Reversal below 1675 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1630.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790

India, ASX breakout

India’s Sensex is retracing to test its new support level after breaking resistance at 20500 Friday, signaling a primary advance to 22000*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 19500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing the rising trendline on its weekly chart. Penetration would warn that momentum is slowing, while breach of 13000 would signal a primary down-trend. Breakout above 15000 is as likely, despite the earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, and would signal an advance to 17500*.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is rallying to test resistance — and the upper trend channel — at 2330. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates growing buying pressure. Reversal below 2150 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing resistance at 23500 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 25500*; follow-through above 24000 would confirm. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 23000 is unlikely, but would suggest another test of support at 21500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

Singapore’s Straits Times Index appears to be preparing for another test of long-term resistance at 3300. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 3600*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend, but sentiment is bullish across a wide range of markets and upward breakout is as likely.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600

The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at the May high of 5250, the false break suggesting a bear trap. Follow-through above 5300 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Reversal below 5100 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

Europe on the rise

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 — representing 50 leading stocks in the Eurozone — is advancing strongly, with a 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggesting a healthy up-trend. Breakout above 2800 offers a target of 3200*. Reversal below 2850 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 2850 + ( 2850 – 2500 ) = 3200

The FTSE 100 threatened a primary down-trend after breaching primary support at 6400, but this proved a false break and recovery above 6400 now suggests a rally to 6650/6700. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 6700 would indicate an advance to 7000*, but reversal below support at 6400, while less likely, would warn of a correction to 6000.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

TSX 60 threatens breakout

Canada’s TSX 60 continues to test resistance at 740. Follow-through above 745 would indicate a long-term advance to 800*. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would signal strong buying pressure. Reversal below 725 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX below 15 remains in bull territory.

TSX 60 VIX

S&P 500 reflects bullish LT sentiment

The September quarter-end often heralds a correction as fund managers re-balance their portfolios and shed under-performing stocks. Congressional gridlock raised the probability even higher, but the market has brushed this aside, reflecting bullish long-term sentiment.

The S&P 500 rallied sharply off support at 1650. Follow-through above 1710 would indicate an advance to 1790/1800*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough close to zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 1675 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1630.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1710 + ( 1710 – 1630 ) = 1790

VIX retreated below 20, signaling low/moderate market risk.

VIX Index

Dow kaPow!

Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 300 points, ending its test of primary support at 14750. One swallow doesn’t make a summer, but this is a good start. S&P 500 breakout above 1710 would signal a fresh primary advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average