Analysis of major stock markets around the world.
Canada’s TSX 60 respected support at 772/775, indicating an advance to 800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects selling pressure during the recent consolidation. A trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but reversal below zero would warn of a correction — as would breach of short-term support at 772.
* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800
TSX 60 VIX at historic lows signals a bullish outlook for stocks.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is advancing strongly, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 16600*. Retracement to test the new support level remains likely, however, and respect would confirm the advance. Reversal below 15700 is unlikely, but would test the secondary rising trendline around 15500.
* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600
The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the target of 1800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1750 would warn of a correction to the secondary trendline at 1700. Short corrections are indicative of strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues below 15, indicating low market risk.
The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below the latest trendline would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations reflect an accelerating trend, or blow-off. Steep gains, however, almost inevitably end with a sharp fall.
* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550
This an example of the monthly updates from the new Research & Investment joint venture between Incredible Charts and Porter Capital.
S&P 500 Momentum is based on Porter Capital’s successful ASX200 Prime Momentum strategy which returned +38.43% for the 12 months ended 31st October 2013. Actual historical performance for the S&P 500 is not yet available.
The portfolio includes the usual technology, Internet retail and biotechnology sectors but also insurance, airlines, and oil & gas exploration.
Star performer Netflix (NFLX) climbed from $80 to above $350 over the last year, breaking its 2011 high of $300. Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate strong buying pressure.
We continue to hold the following stocks:
There are four new additions this month:
Biotech newcomer Gilead Sciences (GILD) climbed from $20 to above $70 over the last three years. Short corrections indicate buying pressure and respect of support at $64 would signal a fresh advance. Twiggs Money Flow troughs high above zero also suggest strong buying pressure.
Stocks replaced are:
Regneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) rose from $30 to $300 over the last three years, but encountered strong resistance at $300/$320 and has fallen outside our top ten ranking. Breach of support at $270 and the rising trendline would warn that the primary trend is weakening. Recovery above $320, however, would most likely see it regain its position in the portfolio.
Our market filters indicate low to moderate risk and we maintain full exposure to equities.
As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. There is much discussion in the media as to whether various markets are in a “bubble”. Little attention is devoted to the fact that bubbles can last for several years, and sometimes even decades. The main driver of both stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles is debt. Anna Schwartz, co-author with Milton Friedman of A Monetary History of the United States (1963) described the relationship to the Wall Street Journal:
If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates …..
Currently, there is evidence of expansive monetary policy from the Fed, but the overall impact on the financial markets is muted. Most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed. The chart below compares Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) to the increase in excess reserve deposits at the Fed.
A classic placebo effect, the Fed is well aware that the major benefit of their quantitative easing program is psychological: there is little monetary impact on the markets.
Corporate debt (green line below) is expanding rapidly as corporations take advantage of the opportunity to issue new debt at low interest rates, but household debt (red) is still shrinking.
There are pockets of concern, like the rapid recovery in NYSE margin debt, but risk of a Dotcom-style stock market bubble or a 2002/2007 housing bubble is low while household debt contracts.
Regards,
Colin Twiggs
Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
~ Aristotle
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India’s Sensex found support at 20200 before rallying to test resistance at 21200. Breakout above its 2007 and 2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 18000.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000
Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke through resistance at 15000, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect of 15000 is unlikely, but would confirm the primary up-trend, with a long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline would test primary support at 13200, warning of trend weakness.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500
Singapore’s Straits Times Index respected support at 3000 on the monthly chart, but is struggling to make an impression on long-term resistance at 3300. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Breakout above 3300 is unlikely at present, but would signal a primary advance to 3600*.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600
China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at its upper trend channel. Follow-through above 2200 would indicate the correction is over and a test of 2270 is likely. A down-swing to test the lower channel is just as likely, however, and would indicate continuation of the correction. Completion of a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero (say > 15%) would signal medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2270 may be some way off but would signal a primary up-trend.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng broke resistance at 23500, signaling a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm, offering a medium-term target of 24500 and a long-term target of 28000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500 or the primary trendline.
* Target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 20000 ) = 28000
The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 5300. Penetration of the rising trendline, would warn of a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure.
The monthly chart shows a correction would be likely to test the secondary rising trendline around 5000. Recovery above 5400 is unlikely at present, but would signal an advance to 5600*.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600
Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9000, sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling strong medium-term buying pressure. Target for the current advance is 9500*. Reversal below 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline between 8000 and 8500.
* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing support at its 2009/2011 high of 3000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 3000 is likely and follow-through above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3500*.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500
Spain’s Madrid General Index found medium-term resistance at 1000. A correction to test support at 900 is likely, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow falling sharply. Respect of 900 would suggest a healthy primary up-trend. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would indicate the primary trend is weakening.
* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050
The FTSE 100 is retracing to test support at 6600. Long tails indicate short-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 6800 would indicate an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure, but the specter of a long-term bearish divergence remains. Expect strong resistance at 7000. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 6400.
* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000
Canada’s TSX 60 followed through above 775 after a short consolidation, signaling an advance to 800* — close to the 2011 high of 820. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below support at 740 is most unlikely.
* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800
TSX 60 VIX retreated below 15, indicating low market risk.
The S&P 500 is advancing strongly but expect some resistance at the target of 1800*. Penetration of the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests that selling pressure is easing. Reversal below 1750 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a correction to at least the secondary trendline at 1700. Short corrections are indicative of long-term buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
Bellwether transport stock Fedex exceeded its target of $130*, with rising Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. A bullish sign for the US economy.
* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 – 70 ) = 130
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to indicate low market risk.
The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend, breaking resistance at 3400 after a brief consolidation. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Accelerating trends, or blow-offs, enjoy rapid gains but inevitably end with a sharp fall.
* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550
Dow Jones Industrial Average followed through above 15800 after breaking resistance at 15700 to signal a fresh advance. Expect retracement to again test 15700 in the next few weeks, but respect of the new support level strengthens the breakout signal. Long-term target for the advance is 16600*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 15500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 14800.
* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600
The FTSE 100 is testing its new support level at 6700. Follow-through above 6800 would indicate respect — and an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 6400.
* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing support at its 2009/2011 high of 3000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 3000 is likely and follow-through above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3500*.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500
Canada’s TSX 60 is consolidating in a narrow range at its medium-term target of 770 after a strong spurt. This is a bullish sign and follow-through above 775 would signal a further advance to 800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely.
* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800
TSX 60 VIX is above 15 but still in the low risk range.
