Critical Materials – projected supply gap

Two interesting tables from ZeroHedge. First, is the projected increase in supply of key critical materials needed to achieve global net zero increase in CO2 emissions (NZE) by 2040:

Critical Materials - Expected Supply Shortage to achieve Net Zero by 2040

Second, is the expected supply shortfall by 2030:

Critical Materials - Expected Supply Shortage to achieve Net Zero by 2040

Industrial Metals are currently in a bear market, with DJ Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) testing long-term support at 150. Breach would offer a target of 110.

DJ Industrial Base Metals


Now may not be an opportune time to accumulate critical materials stocks but keep watch. Sooner or later, demand growth is likely to resume — as electrification and EV sales grow — leading to a supply shortfall as projected in 2030 above.


Technology-critical elements

Technology-critical elements (TCEs) are elements for which a striking acceleration in usage has emerged, relative to past consumption, and which are critical to emerging technologies.

Wikipedia provides a useful list:

Rare-earth elements (REEs)

In atomic order:

Light (LREEs)

  • scandium
  • yttrium
  • lanthanum
  • cerium
  • praseodymium
  • neodymium
  • promethium

Heavy (HREEs)

  • samarium
  • europium
  • gadolinium
  • terbium
  • dysprosium
  • holmium
  • erbium
  • thulium
  • ytterbium
  • lutetium

Platinum-group metals (PGMs)

  • iridium
  • osmium
  • palladium
  • platinum
  • rhodium
  • ruthenium

Other elements

  • antimony
  • beryllium
  • caesium
  • cobalt
  • gallium
  • germanium
  • indium
  • lithium
  • niobium
  • tantalum
  • tellurium
  • tungsten