Spot gold is testing short-term support at $1750/ounce as the greenback strengthens. Breach of the rising trendline would suggest that the advance is losing momentum — and breakout below $1700 would signal another test of primary support at $1600. Respect of $1700 is less likely, but would signal an advance to $1900.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900
CRB Commodities Index is testing the descending trendline at 320. Breakout would suggest that the down-trend has weakened and the index is forming a bottom; respect would indicate another test of primary support at 295. Breach of the long term rising trendline would warn of another test of 2009 lows at 200.
Brent crude is also testing its descending trendline, at $110/barrel. Respect would signal another test of primary support at $99, while breakout would suggest that the down-trend has ended. In the long-term, breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to around $70/barrel.
Spot gold is testing support at $1700/ounce after its recent breakout above the descending trendline and resistance (at $1700). Respect of support would indicate a primary advance to $1900. In the long term, breakout above $1900 would offer a target of $2200, while failure of support at $1600 would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1600 ) = 2200
Amex Gold Bugs Index is headed for another test of the upper border of its right-angled broadening wedge formation. The pattern is bearish and breakout below 500 would warn of a primary reversal for spot gold.
The Dollar Index failed to confirm the primary up-trend, breaking support at 76 with a sharp fall in response to news of a resolution to the euro-zone debt crisis. Expect a test of primary support at 73. Breach of the rising trendline on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm.
Expect gold and commodities to rally as a result of the weakening dollar.
The Dollar Index retraced to test the new support level at 76.00. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would signal trend weakness. A trough above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the bull signal.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84
Gold broke through $1700/ounce in response to dollar weakness. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect would signal a primary advance to 1800*. The long-term (primary) trend remains upward.
* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1600 ) = 1800
The Amex Gold Bugs Index is testing medium-term resistance at 560. Breakout would test the upper border of broadening wedge pattern — around 650 — and support a similar advance for the spot metal.
Brent crude is also stronger, testing its upper trend channel at $110/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower channel — and the ascending long-term trendline — while breakout would signal an advance to $120*.
* Target calculation: 110 + ( 110 – 100 ) = 120
The broader CRB Commodities Index is also headed for its upper trend channel. The ascending primary trendline remains intact but 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line (from below) warns of a strong down-trend.
Spot iron ore prices have shed 19 percent so far this month in a sell-off largely fueled by slower construction steel demand in China, the world’s biggest buyer of imported iron ore at around 400 million tonnes a year.
In Europe, a more important market for Vale than Rio, steel markets have taken a knock given uncertainty surrounding the region’s debt crisis.
Growth of Europe’s steel production will slow in 2012 along with activity in the steel-using sectors, Eurofer, the European steel producers association, has forecast.
via Iron ore crash – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
Spot gold remains in a strong primary up-trend on the monthly chart. Breakout below support at $1500 — or a 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross to below zero — would warn of a reversal, but respect of $1500 support would indicate another primary advance with a target of 2300*.
* Target calculation: 1900 + (1900 – 1500 ) = 2300
Brent crude is edging lower in a wide trend channel. Respect of the long-term ascending trendline (on the weekly chart) would suggest upward breakout from the channel — and a target of $150/barrel*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150
The CRB Commodities index is similarly testing its long-term rising trendline at 300. Penetration of the secondary descending trendline would indicate another primary advance on the monthly chart. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero [R], however, warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 290 would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 370 +( 370 – 290 ) = 450
Spot gold is headed for a test of support at $1600/ounce; failure would offer a target of $1500*. In the long term, the primary trend remains up and breakout above $1700 would signal an advance to $1900.
* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500
Amex Gold Bugs index ($HUI) is headed for a test of primary support at 500 on the weekly chart. Failure would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 400* — and warn of a similar reversal for spot gold. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum slipped below zero to strengthen the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 500 – ( 600 – 500 ) = 400
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3 to 2 today to limit trading in oil, wheat, gold and other commodities after a boom in raw-materials speculation, record- high prices and years of debate and delay.
The rule limits the number of contracts a single firm can hold and it limits traders to 25 percent of deliverable supply in the month nearest to delivery.
