At present, interest rates are driving gold. How long this will continue is hard to say. It depends on what shocks lie in store for the global financial system. Two pending rolls of the dice are the November 8 elections and negotiations over Britain’s exit from the EU.
Long-term Treasury yields are rising while gold is falling. Expectations of a rate rise after the November election are growing and a test of resistance at 2.0 percent is likely. But a lot depends on continued stability of financial markets.
Spot gold reacted to rising interest rates by breaking support at $1300/ounce, warning of a test of primary support at $1200. A brief pause at medium-term support at $1250 is indicated by a spinning top candlestick, signaling indecision. Support at $1250 is unlikely to hold but the primary up-trend is intact unless support at $1200 is broken.
The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index broke support at 4500, warning of a primary down-trend. The immediate target is 4000.