Crude Oil & Natural Gas Archives - Page 14 of 20

November 3, 2014

Europe’s Energy Essentials by Ana Palacio | Project Syndicate

Ana Palacio on Europe’s energy challenge:

Energy’s emergence as a focal point for European leaders makes sense, given that it lies at the confluence of the three existential threats facing the European Union: a revisionist Russia, the declining competitiveness of European businesses, and climate change.

….The most tangible element of the EU’s emerging energy-policy framework is the internal energy market, which, once completed, will allow for the unimpeded flow of energy and related investments throughout the EU. Such an integrated energy market would lead to significant savings – estimates go as high as €40 billion ($51 billion) annually by 2030 – thereby providing a much-needed competitiveness boost.

The internal energy market would enhance Europe’s energy security as well…. individual countries are often excessively dependent on a single source and, more dangerously, a single supplier: Russia. Unrestricted energy flows within the EU would mitigate the risks of supply disruptions or shocks.

November 1, 2014

The Global Drop in Oil Prices | Stratfor

Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Bhalla and Global Energy Analyst Matt Bey discuss highlights of an upcoming series on the geopolitical impact of oil below $90 a barrel.

October 31, 2014

Gold breaks support

Gold broke support at $1200/$1180 per ounce, signaling another (primary) decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero strengthens the signal. The long-term target is $1000*. Recovery above 1200 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

October 27, 2014

Solar Struggles To Compete With Other Renewables On Cost

Andy Tully discusses a study by Ecofys, a renewable energy consultancy based in Utrecht, Netherlands:

…..The Ecofys study concludes that new coal and natural gas plants in the EU, running at maximum capacity, have levelized costs of just over $64 in 2012 dollars per megawatt-hour. Onshore wind costs about $102 per megawatt-hour.

On the higher end, the Ecofys says, nuclear power costs about $115 per megawatt-hour and solar photovoltaic systems cost about $127. At the low end, the cost of hydroelectric power costs about $12.

October 27, 2014

Alleged Oil Shock Isn’t All That Shocking

Keith Johnson discusses the impact of crude oil at $80 per barrel:

….Cheaper oil prices means lower prices at the pump and for everything that is ever shipped, from food to flip-flops. The recent fall equates to a massive, unplanned stimulus package for the world’s shoppers. Citigroup, for instance, figures that cheaper prices amount to a $1.1 trillion global shot in the arm.

October 23, 2014

Crude oil threatens support

Brent crude [pink] has already broken long-term support at $90/barrel and Nymex Light Crude [blue] is testing similar support at $78 to $80/barrel. Breach would confirm a primary down-trend and a long-term target of $50*.

Nymex WTI Crude

* Target calculation: 80 – ( 110 – 80 ) = 50

October 15, 2014

Crude targets $75

Nymex Light Crude is headed for a test of major support at the 2011 low of $75/barrel after breaking support at $92/barrel. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) already signals a down-trend. Brent Crude has also broken primary support, but is maintaining a premium of $5 to $10 per barrel.

Nymex WTI Crude

* Target calculation: 92 – ( 110 – 92 ) = 74

October 9, 2014

Market lifts despite weak global economy

Minutes of the September FOMC meeting highlight growing unease with the strong US Dollar and a weak global economy. The market read this as “low interest rates” and commenced a buying spree. Last year the quarter-end sell-off ended on October 9th after a 4.2% fall. This year’s correction fell 4.7%, lasting 13 days (so far) compared to 15 days in 2013.

Roberto Dominguez at NY Daily News reports:

“The start of earnings season, with companies including Costco and Alcoa reporting quarterly profits that beat forecasts, also helped push the S&P 500 to its biggest rally in a year.”

While Cullen Roche writes that the US fiscal deficit is shrinking:

“…tax receipts have surged by 7.7% year over year and are up 48% over the last 5 years. And while some of this is due to tax increases the vast majority is due to a healing private sector.”

Bellwether transport stock Fedex continues its primary up-trend, signaling improved economic activity.

Fedex

No doubt boosted by a falling outlook for crude oil.

Nymex and Brent Crude

With positive news about, we should be careful not to forget the Fed’s concern with a weak global economy. While this may drive oil prices even lower, the impact on international sales of major exporters will be closely watched.

S&P 500 recovery above 2000 would indicate the correction is over, while follow-through above 2020 would signal another advance. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal a healthy up-trend. Reversal below 1925 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 1900/1910.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to 15%, indicating low volatility typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

October 8, 2014

It’s Time To Drive Russia Bankrupt — Again

Interesting view from Louis Woodhill on Forbes:

Over the past 64 years, real gold prices have averaged $544.91/oz in 4Q2013 dollars, and real crude oil prices have averaged $38.85 bbl. This means that an ounce of gold will typically buy about 14 barrels of oil.

If we fully stabilized the dollar today, we could expect gold prices to fall toward $550/oz, and oil prices to fall toward $40.00/bbl. The huge dollar premiums that gold and oil currently command reflect the value that these easy-to-store commodities have as hedges against dollar instability. If we reformed our monetary control system to guarantee the real value of the dollar, we would eliminate this risk. The risk premiums currently enjoyed by oil and gold would then decline toward zero, as the new monetary system gained credibility.

Are the current gold and oil premiums simply a hedge against an unstable dollar?

September 14, 2014

Bad Has Never Looked So Good – Russia

Again from Energy Burrito at Oilprice.com:

…the Russian ruble has been gradually depreciating throughout this year amid rising geopolitical tension in Ukraine. It has now dropped 12% versus the US dollar in 2014.

Yet while a falling ruble hurts Russian imports as they become increasingly more expensive to buy, Russia reaps the rewards when it comes to exports. And it is seeing the greatest benefit from its largest export: oil. To the tune of 7 million barrels a day.

Hence, while crude prices in US dollars have dropped 12% in value since the beginning of July, crude oil in rubles has only dropped 3.4%. For Russian coffers, it is good for the ruble to be bad…

Read more at Bad Has Never Looked So Good.