More from Tyler Durden:
As the chart below shows, gasoline stocks rose 0.5 million bbls last week to 241Mm bbl and is now 11.8% higher than last year.
Source: Oil Crashes To $41 Handle After Surprise Inventory Build, Production Rise | Zero Hedge
Oil Crashes To $41…… | Zero Hedge
Tyler Durden suggests that crude oil prices will fall in the second half of 2016:
Tracking last year’s pump-and-dump of hope perfectly.
As demand is set to tumble…
Source: Oil Crashes To $41 Handle After Surprise Inventory Build, Production Rise | Zero Hedge
US rig count rises
The recent peak in crude prices coincides with the bottom for the US oil rig count (discussed Monday).
Gold strengthens as Dollar weakens
Long-term interest rates continue their decline, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 1.65 to 1.70 percent. Breach would signal a test of the all-time (July 2012) low of 1.40 percent.
Gold rallied in response, breaking initial resistance at $1250/ounce to signal a test of $1300.
The Chinese appear to have resumed selling foreign reserves to support the Yuan, with USDCNY running into resistance at 6.60. PBOC sale of reserves would weaken the Dollar, boosting demand for Gold. Failure to support the Yuan is unlikely, but would increase safe haven demand for Gold from Chinese investors.
The Dollar Index, representing predominantly the Euro and Yen crosses, fell sharply. Breach of support at 93 would confirm the primary down-trend earlier signaled by 13-week Momentum below zero.
The Australian All Ordinaries Gold Index broke through 4500 to signal another advance, with the weakening Australian Dollar adding further impetus. Gaps between trough lows (orange line) and preceding highs (brown line) indicate strong buying pressure.
Disclosure: Our Australian managed portfolios are invested in gold stocks.
The ‘black swan event’ that could send oil to $US25 a barrel | Business Insider
From Elena Holodny | May 24, 2016, 10:13 AM
Both WTI crude and Brent crude were around $US48 per barrel on Monday, well above their lows below $US30 per barrel earlier this year. But all of that may come crashing down if one “black swan event” transpires, argued a Bank of America Merrill Lynch global commodities research team.
From their recent note to clients (emphasis ours): “Global GDP in US dollar terms at market exchange rates is stagnant. Continued US dollar strength could force Saudi Arabia either to cut oil production modestly and push Brent back to $50 or de-peg the Saudi riyal, our black swan event, which could lead Brent to collapse to $25/bbl.”
While this certainly sounds ominous for the oil market, it’s worth noting that analysts and financiers are split on whether the Saudis will actually de-peg their currency and undo the current fixed exchange rate with the US dollar….
Source: The ‘black swan event’ that could send oil to $US25 a barrel | Business Insider
Oil turns lower as greenback rallies on Fed minutes
From Mark Shenk:
Oil dropped from a seven-month high as the US dollar surged after the Federal Reserve published minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting suggesting a June hike is possible. Commodities fell as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US currency against 10 others, surged. The April minutes showed that policy makers saw an interest-rate hike appropriate in June if labour markets and economic growth continued to strengthen…..
Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge
Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term crude oil forecasts:
The inflection phase of the oil market continues to deliver its share of surprises, with low prices driving disruptions in Nigeria, higher output in Iran and better demand. With each of these shifts significant in magnitude, the oil market has gone from nearing storage saturation to being in deficit much earlier than we expected and we are pulling forward our price forecast, with 2Q/2H16 WTI now $45/bbl and $50/bbl. However, we expect that the return of some of these outages as well as higher Iran and Iraq production will more than offset lingering issues in Nigeria and our higher demand forecast. As a result, we now forecast a more gradual decline in inventories in 2H than previously and a return into surplus in 1Q17, with low-cost production continuing to grow in the New Oil Order. This leads us to lower our 2017 forecast with prices in 1Q17 at $45/bbl and only reaching $60/bbl by 4Q2017.
But these forecasts are premised on a Chinese recovery:
Stronger vehicle sales, activity and a bigger harvest are leading us to raise our Indian and Russia demand forecasts for the year. And while we are reducing our US and EU forecasts on the combination of weaker activity and higher prices than previously assumed, we are raising our China demand forecasts to reflect the expected support from the recent transient stimulus. Net, our 2016 oil demand growth forecast is now 1.4 mb/d, up from 1.2 mb/d previously. Our bias for strong demand growth since October 2014 leaves us seeing risks to this forecast as skewed to the upside although lesser fuel and crude burn for power generation in Brazil, Japan and likely Saudi are large headwinds this year.
While production growth continues to surprise:
…..This expectation for a return into surplus in 1Q17 is not dependent on a sharp price recovery beyond the $45-$55/bbl trading range that we now expect in 2016. First, it reflects our view that low-cost producers will continue to drive production growth in the New Oil Order – with growth driven by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, the UAE and Russia. Second, non-OPEC producers had mostly budgeted such price levels and there remains a pipeline of already sanctioned non-OPEC projects. In fact, we see risks to our production forecasts as skewed to the upside as we remain conservative on Saudi’s ineluctable ramp up and Iran’s recovery.
We expect continued growth in low-cost producer output
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Iran (crude) and Russia (oil) production (kb/d)
Tyler Durden has a more bearish view:
While there is much more in the full note, the bottom line is simple: near-term disruptions have led to a premature bounce in the price of oil, however as millions more in oil barrels come online (and as Chinese demand fades contrary to what Goldman believes), the next leg in oil will not be higher, but flat or lower, in what increasingly is shaping up to be a rerun of the summer of 2015.
Source: Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge
The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research
Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran, and Robert J. Vigfusson in the FRBSF Economic Letter:
Why has consumption not responded more to cheap oil? Clearly, the U.S. economy was buffeted by headwinds over the past year, like weak foreign growth and the substantial appreciation of the dollar, that may have masked the positive effects of cheaper oil. Moreover, the decline in gas prices has been more muted than the drop in the price of oil. However, another possible reason is that the impact of changes in oil prices on the economy depends not only on the magnitude of the change, but also on its perceived persistence. Consumer spending is more likely to rise if people believe the decline in oil prices will last for a while; by contrast, if consumers think lower oil prices are not here to stay, they may simply decide to save what they don’t spend at the pump.
Figure 4: Estimated share of permanence in oil price movements
Source: Economic Research | The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil
Where oil goes, stocks will follow
Where oil goes, stocks will follow. Crude oil prices are the canary in the coalmine at present. June 2016 Light Crude futures retreated from resistance at $43/barrel. Breach of medium-term support at $38 warns of another test of primary support at $32/barrel. Failure of support at $32 would offer a target of $22/barrel*, while respect of support would suggest that a bottom is forming.
* Target calculation: 32 – ( 42 – 32 ) = 22
The ASX started Monday with an early rally but ran into a spate of selling before the close. ASX 200 follow-through below 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4750. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates medium-term selling pressure. Failure of primary support would reaffirm the long-term target of 4000*.
* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000
Oil lower on global glut, Iranian output
From The Age:
Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma grew almost 850,000 barrels to 69.6 million in the week to March 11, bringing storage at the delivery hub for US crude futures to near capacity, traders said, citing market intelligence firm Genscape.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, meanwhile, said global demand for crude from its members, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, will be less than previously thought in 2016 due to competing non-OPEC supply. OPEC supply will likely exceed demand by about 760,000 barrels per day, up from 720,000 bpd it implied earlier.
* Target calculation: 32 – ( 42 – 32 ) = 22
Respect of resistance at $42/barrel (and the descending trendline) would warn of another decline. Breach of support at $32 would confirm a target of $22/barrel*.
Where oil goes, stocks will follow.