The US Dollar Index $DXY_us.
The falling euro strengthens the US Dollar Index which broke through resistance at 76.00. Breakout completes the base which has been forming over the past 5 months. Retracement is likely; and respect of the new support level at 76.00 would confirm a primary up-trend, while failure would warn of a bull trap.
* Target calculation: 76 + ( 76 – 73 ) = 79
The Dollar Index rallied strongly but expect stubborn resistance between 76.00 and 76.50. Consolidation between 73.00 and 76.50 has continued for more than four months, but we are in a bear trend and downward breakout remains likely. Failure of support at 73.00 would offer a target of 70.00*. Any hint of quantitative easing in the next FOMC announcement, on September 21st, would accelerate the sell-off.
* Target calculation: 73 – ( 76 – 73 ) = 70
The Dollar Index continues to test the band of support at 73.00 to 73.50. The recent failed up-swing (it did not reach 76.00) suggests selling pressure. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong down-trend. Breakout below 73.00 would offer a medium-term target of 70.00*.
* Target calculation: 73 – ( 76 – 73 ) = 70
The Dollar Index is testing primary support at 73.00. Penetration of the declining long-term trendline is only tentative at this stage and failure of support would warn of a down-swing to 70.00*. Announcement of QE3 by the Fed on Friday would cause a sharp fall, while absence of further easing would strengthen support.
* Target calculation: 73 – ( 76 – 73 ) = 70
The Dollar Index has consolidated between 73 and 76.50 for the last 3 months. The recent failed swing, a rally that did not reach 76, indicates weakness and we are now likely to see a test of support at 73. In the long term, with 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero, the primary down-trend is likely to continue. Failure of support would offer a target of 70*.
* Target calculation: 73 – ( 76 – 73 ) = 70
The Dollar Index has consolidated between 73 and 76.50 for several months. 63-day Momentum holding below zero indicates a strong down-trend. Breakout below 73.50 would warn of another decline, with a target of 70*. Recovery above 76.50 is unlikely, but would signal reversal to an up-trend.
* Target calculation: 73 – ( 76 – 73 ) = 70
