The Dollar Index is headed for a test of resistance at 80. The brief dip below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a solid primary up-trend. Breakout above 80 would offer a target of 85*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Brazilian Real and South African Rand
The Brazilian Real has fallen sharply against the greenback since the government took measures to stem the inflow of funds on capital account. Breach of medium-term support at $0.56 would indicate respect of the descending trendline and another test of primary support at $0.52. In the long-term, failure of primary support would warn of a fall to $0.40.
* Target calculation: 0.52 – ( 0.64 – 0.52 ) = 0.40
The South African Rand is weakening against both the US and Aussie dollar. The Aussie (another resources currency) shows an accelerating up-trend against the Rand. Breakout above R8.30 would signal an advance to R9.00*. Accelerating up-trends, however, inevitably lead to blow-offs — as in 2008.
* Target calculation: 7.50 + ( 7.50 – 6.00 ) = 9.00
Aussie and Loonie test support
The Aussie is testing support at parity against the greenback. The “iceberg” on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of parity would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of primary support would signal a decline to $0.80*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80
63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates a stronger down-trend on Canada’s Loonie. Failure of support at $0.975 would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of the $0.94 level would signal decline to $0.80*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87
The Aussie and Loonie normally move in sympathy with the CRB Commodities Index and a CRB break of its primary down-trend would warn of a reversal on the above two currencies.
Dollar surge continues
The Dollar Index is headed for a test of resistance at 80* after respecting support at 76.50. The brief dip of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero also suggests a primary up-trend. In the long term, breakout above 80 would signal an advance to 85*.
* Target calculations: 77.5 + ( 77.5 – 75.0 ) = 80.0 and 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Aussie and Loonie hurt by dollar surge
The Aussie broke short-term support at $1.02, signaling a test of parity. The descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum “iceberg” warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of parity would indicate another visit to primary support at $0.94. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.80*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80
Canada’s Loonie “peeked” briefly above parity before retreating to test support at $0.975/0.980. Descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would test $0.94; and failure of primary support at $0.94 would offer a target of $0.88*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88
Dollar surges on euro turmoil
The Dollar Index is headed for another test of resistance at 80 on the strength of the euro crisis. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 80 on the index (or 5% on TMO) would confirm, offering a medium-term target of 85*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Kiwi Dollar
The Kiwi respected the band of resistance at $0.80/$0.82 against the greenback, warning of a primary decline. Earlier breach of the rising trendline strengthens the signal. Failure of support at $0.75 would offer a target of $0.70.
* Target calculation: 0.75 – ( 0.80 – 0.75 ) = 0.70
Aussie Dollar
The Aussie Dollar is headed for a test of support at $1.01/$1.00. Recovery above $1.08 would complete an inverted head and shoulders, but there is still some way to go. Breach of support would warn of another primary decline. In the long-term, failure of support at $0.94 would offer a target of $0.80, while breakout above $1.08 would indicate a target of $1.22.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80
Dollar rebounds as euro-zone debt crisis drags on
The Dollar Index is consolidating below resistance at 77.50. Breach of the descending trendline suggests the correction is over and recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above the zero line indicates that the primary trend remains upward. Breakout above 77.50 would offer a medium-term target of 80*.
* Target calculation: 77.50 + ( 77.50 – 75.00 ) = 80.00
Dollar tanks
The Dollar Index failed to confirm the primary up-trend, breaking support at 76 with a sharp fall in response to news of a resolution to the euro-zone debt crisis. Expect a test of primary support at 73. Breach of the rising trendline on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm.
Expect gold and commodities to rally as a result of the weakening dollar.