Category: Forex

Coverage of all major currencies and the US Dollar Index.

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Dollar finds strong support

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is heading for another test of resistance at 3.00 percent after encountering buying pressure above primary support at 2.50. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to warn of weakness. Breach of 2.50 is unlikely, but would offer a target of 2.00 percent. Breakout above 3.00 would signal an advance to 3.50 percent*.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 3.50

The Dollar Index encountered strong support at 80, indicating another test of 81.50 is likely. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 83.00*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 79.70 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81.5 + ( 81.5 – 80 ) = 83

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ASX 200 hits resistance

After a healthy start to the day, the ASX ran into poor Flash Manufacturing PMI out of China. The Aussie Dollar fell through 90 cents, suggesting another test of 87 (US cents).

Aussie Dollar

The ASX 200 faces strong resistance at 5400 to 5450. Rising 21-day Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure and breakout above 5450 would confirm a primary advance. But reversal below 5400 would warn of another correction; follow-through below 5350 would confirm.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

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European recovery

Both the Euro and Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index are bullish.

Euro recovery above $1.37, the high of February 2013, suggests another advance. Breakout above $1.38 would confirm. Breach of the (secondary) rising trendline and declining Twiggs Momentum, however, warn of a weak trend. Reversal below $1.35 would test primary support at $1.33.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.33 ) = 1.43

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is stronger, recovering above 3100 to indicate an advance to 3350*. Follow-through above 3180 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero reflects a healthy up-trend. Breach of the secondary trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 2920.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 2950 ) = 3350

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Firming Treasury yields support the Dollar

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes recovered above resistance at 2.75 percent after penetrating the descending trendline, suggesting the correction is over. Follow-through (above say 2.80) would indicate another test of 3.00 percent. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to warn of weakness. Breach of 2.50 is unlikely, but would offer a target of 2.00 percent*.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00

The Dollar Index continues to test resistance at 81.50. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 83.00*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 79.70 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend — strengthened if support at 79.00 is broken.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81.5 + ( 81.5 – 80 ) = 83

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Japan: Dollar supports Nikkei

The US Dollar found support at ¥101 against the Yen. Recovery above the May high at ¥104 would suggest a healthy up-trend, while breakout above ¥106 would offer a target of ¥110*. Divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum remains bearish, but another trough above zero would reverse this. Breach of support at ¥101 now seems unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 106 + ( 106 – 102 ) = 110

A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would assist Japanese stocks. The Nikkei 225 found support at 14000 on the monthly chart. Recovery above 15000 would suggest another advance, while breakout above 16000 would confirm. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225

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DAX finds support

The Euro retraced from resistance at $1.39 but appears unlikely to penetrate the rising trendline (having recently signaled a primary advance). Breach would warn of of trend weakness, but recovery above $1.39 is more likely and would signal an advance to $1.46*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.28 ) = 1.46

The dragonfly candlestick on Germany’s DAX indicates strong support at 9000. Recovery above 9400 would suggest the correction is over and breakout above 9800 would signal a fresh advance with a target of 10600*. Reversal below 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline. Completion of another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough high above zero would signal strong long-term buying pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9800 + ( 9800 – 9000 ) = 10600

Retreat of DAX Volatility below 20 suggests low risk indicative of a bull market.

DAX

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Interest Rates and the Dollar: Not much change

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is headed for a test of primary support at 2.50 percent after penetrating the rising trendline. Bearish divergence on 13-week twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal and reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of 2.50 remains unlikely, but would offer a target of 2.00 percent*.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00

Despite falling yields, the Dollar Index is testing resistance at 81.50. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 83.00*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 79.70 is less likely, but would warn of another test of support at 79.00.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81.5 + ( 81.5 – 80 ) = 83

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Japan: Nikkei falls as Dollar weakens

The US Dollar is testing support at ¥102 to ¥103 against the Yen. Breach of the rising trendline would strengthen the warning from a bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Reversal of Momentum below zero would suggest a primary down-trend. Recovery above ¥104 is less likely, but would offer a target of ¥110*.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 106 + ( 106 – 102 ) = 110

A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would assist Japanese stocks. The Nikkei 225 is testing support at 15000 after penetrating its rising trendline. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 15000 would indicate a strong correction, while a Twiggs Money Flow cross below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Nikkei 225

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US interest rates and the Dollar

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.75 percent after penetrating the rising trendline. Both warn of trend weakness. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal and reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 2.50 still seems unlikely, but would offer a target of 2.00 percent*.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00

The Dollar Index, on the other hand, appears headed for another test of resistance at 81.50. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 83.00*, while recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 79.80 cannot be ruled out, with long-term rates falling, and would warn of another test of primary support at 79.00.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81.5 + ( 81.5 – 80 ) = 83

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Aussie dive hurts ASX

The Australian Dollar is declining after breaking primary support at $0.885, offering a long-term target of 80 cents*. Exporters and import replacement industries on the ASX will benefit from the weaker Aussie Dollar in the long-term, but the short-term impact is negative, with overseas investors retreating from the market.

Australian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.885 – ( 0.97 – 0.885 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is heading for a test of support at 5200. Breach is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 5000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Recovery above 5400 is unlikely in the short-term, but would signal a primary advance, with a long-term target of 5800*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

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