Category: Banks & Interest Rates

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.00 percent — a 50-year low. One thing is clear: Fed monetary policy has failed. Suppressing short-term interest rates has, in most cases, lifted the economy out of recession, but also set us up for an even bigger crash the next time round — requiring even more severe interest rate cuts. Long-term yields have been falling for 30 years. We are now clipping the tree tops — with short-term rates near zero and no gas in the tank to lift us over the next obstacle. A bond market revolt cannot be far off.

A “bond market revolt” is a general sell-off of Treasurys when bond-holders decide that rewards (yield) are not commesurate with the risk. We have already witnessed several bond-holder revolts in European markets. A rise in yields would raise the cost of rolling-over existing Treasury debt, ratcheting up the budget deficit even further. This is a threat that should not be ignored.

I am wary of Bernanke’s sudden change of heart on headline inflation. It confirms my suspicion shared by many readers that the Fed is deliberately bringing about inflation and currency debasement to cushion the effects of debt-deleveraging. This amounts to a soft default on America’s debts.

via The Fed is a Rogue Elephant wonkish rant – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph Blogs.