Banks & Interest Rates Archives - Page 61 of 61

August 31, 2011

The Second Great Contraction – Kenneth Rogoff – Project Syndicate

…The only practical way to shorten the coming period of painful deleveraging and slow growth would be a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4-6% for several years. Of course, inflation is an unfair and arbitrary transfer of income from savers to debtors. But, at the end of the day, such a transfer is the most direct approach to faster recovery. Eventually, it will take place one way or another, anyway, as Europe is painfully learning.

Some observers regard any suggestion of even modestly elevated inflation as a form of heresy. But Great Contractions, as opposed to recessions, are very infrequent events, occurring perhaps once every 70 or 80 years. These are times when central banks need to spend some of the credibility that they accumulate in normal times.

via The Second Great Contraction – Kenneth Rogoff – Project Syndicate.

August 24, 2011

Treasury Prices Sink As Investors Pause Ahead Of Jackson Hole – WSJ.com

The fact that buying tapered off after Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s [Treasury auction] sales underscores the attention that traders are placing on the Jackson Hole, Wyo., summit at which Bernanke will speak, betting against the prospect of some form of new bond-buying initiative…..

Troves of tepid economic data in the past few weeks had worked up hopes that the Fed would step in with some sort of disclosure at this weekend’s conference. But those expectations have died down since the start of the week as new data show the global economic recovery might not have slowed down as much as some investors thought.

via Cynthia Lin: Dow Jones Newswires|Treasury Prices Sink As Investors Pause Ahead Of Jackson Hole – WSJ.com.

August 21, 2011

10-Year Treasury yields at new 50-year low

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.00 percent — a 50-year low. One thing is clear: Fed monetary policy has failed. Suppressing short-term interest rates has, in most cases, lifted the economy out of recession, but also set us up for an even bigger crash the next time round — requiring even more severe interest rate cuts. Long-term yields have been falling for 30 years. We are now clipping the tree tops — with short-term rates near zero and no gas in the tank to lift us over the next obstacle. A bond market revolt cannot be far off.

10-Year Treasury Note Yields $TNX

A “bond market revolt” is a general sell-off of Treasurys when bond-holders decide that rewards (yield) are not commesurate with the risk. We have already witnessed several bond-holder revolts in European markets. A rise in yields would raise the cost of rolling-over existing Treasury debt, ratcheting up the budget deficit even further. This is a threat that should not be ignored.

August 14, 2011

The Fed is a Rogue Elephant wonkish rant – Telegraph Blogs

I am wary of Bernanke’s sudden change of heart on headline inflation. It confirms my suspicion shared by many readers that the Fed is deliberately bringing about inflation and currency debasement to cushion the effects of debt-deleveraging. This amounts to a soft default on America’s debts.

via The Fed is a Rogue Elephant wonkish rant – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph Blogs.

August 7, 2011April 18, 2024

Tipping point

Posted August 3, 2011 8:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. AET) on Trading Diary.

Markets are approaching the tipping point at which they will confirm a primary down-trend. The probability of a bear market is around 75 percent, with 80 about as high as you can get at a turning point. As highlighted in May, every significant spike in crude oil prices in the last 50 years has been followed by a recession — and the current spike is likely to prove no different. Ben Bernanke will modestly decline to take the credit, but the initial groundwork for higher oil prices was laid by QEII. Prices had started to rise well before the conflict in Libya.

Investor flight to safety is clearly signaled by the sharp fall in 10-year treasury yields.

Other safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc display a corresponding spike over the last few days.