Economy Archives - Page 84 of 133 - the patient investor

April 24, 2013

Paul Krugman: Hot Money Blues | NYTimes.com

Paul Krugman argues for a return of capital controls:

In the last decade America, too, experienced a huge housing bubble fed by foreign money, followed by a nasty hangover after the bubble burst. The damage was mitigated by the fact that we borrowed in our own currency, but it’s still our worst crisis since the 1930s.

Japan and China amassed more than $2 trillion in US Treasuries in their attempt to halt, or at least slow, appreciation of their currencies against the Dollar. US manufacturers suffered, both in domestic and export markets, laboring at a huge competitive disadvantage because of the artificial exchange rate.

Trade agreements should cap capital flows between countries, setting a limit on the net capital in/outflow in any one year and offsetting measures to be taken if the cap is exceeded.

Read more at Hot Money Blues – NYTimes.com.

April 24, 2013April 16, 2018

PIMCO’s Gross: Investing may be more difficult in years ahead

Charles Stein and Alexis Leondis at Bloomberg quote Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Co) about the outlook for the next decade:

Recently, Gross has become more reflective in his monthly online commentaries. In the April outlook, called “A Man in the Mirror,” he suggested that the careers of the great investors of the past three or four decades were fueled by an expansion of credit that may be coming to an end, and that investing may become more difficult in years ahead.

“All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, yeah — me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period of time, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience,” he wrote. “Perhaps it was the epoch that made the man.”

Central banks have at last awoken to the dangers of rapid credit expansion and are unlikely to allow a repeat of the credit-fueled growth of the last thirty years. Bull markets of the future are therefore likely to be a lot more sedate.
Read more at Pimco’s Rising Stars Pull in Money for Future After Gross – Bloomberg.

April 22, 2013

Fed Watch: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

Tim Duty quotes Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota, speaking at the 22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky conference:

….unusually low real interest rates should be expected to be linked with inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity. All of these financial market outcomes are often interpreted as signifying financial market instability. And this observation brings me to a key conclusion. I’ve suggested that it is likely that, for a number of years to come, the FOMC will only achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability if it keeps real interest rates unusually low. I’ve also argued that when real interest rates are low, we are likely to see financial market outcomes that signify instability. It follows that, for a considerable period of time, the FOMC may only be to achieve its macroeconomic objectives in association with signs of instability in financial markets.

Unusually low interest rates will only cause an asset price bubble when they encourage excessive borrowing by consumers. In the current environment where increased savings are being channeled into repaying debt, the risks of excessive credit growth are low. But the Fed has to maintain a fine balancing act, reacting quickly to any increase in asset prices which would encourage speculative demand for credit — and raising interest rates in order to discourage this.

April 21, 2013

Richard Koo: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing

Richard Koo in his latest report makes that the point that central banks in the US and UK have not cured their economies of deflationary pressures, they have merely kicked the can down the road:

Central bank officials in the US and the UK claim quantitative easing has been a success because it prevented a Japan-like deflation. But as I noted in my last report (2 April 2013), the rate of Japanese wage growth four to five years after the bubble collapsed was roughly equal to the levels now being observed in the US. Deflation took root in Japan only after 1997, when the nation fell off the fiscal cliff following the Hashimoto administration’s ill-fated experiment with fiscal consolidation. That was seven to eight years after the bubble burst.

April 20, 2013

“Fragile by design” – the political causes of banking crisis | The Market Monetarist

Lars Christensen discusses a soon-to-be-released book by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber: “Fragile by Design: Banking Crises, Scarce Credit,and Political Bargains.”

Calomiris and Haber conclude that the root cause of banking crisis has to be found in what political institutions different countries have. Said in another way the main cause banking crisis is one of “political design”…….The differences between USA and Canada seem to be particularly interesting……..since 1840 the US have had 14 banking crisis, while Canada have had none and this despite the fact that credit has been as abundant in Canada as in the US.

April 19, 2013

Fixing the Banking System for Good

I believe we have a crisis of values that is extremely deep…. because the regulations and legal structures need reform. I meet a lot of these people [from] Wall street on a regular basis. I’m going to put it very bluntly: I regard the moral environment as pathological…… I have never seen anything like it. These people are out to make billions of dollars and nothing should stop them from that. They have no responsibility to pay taxes. They have no responsibility to their clients. They have no responsibility to ….counterparties in transactions. They are tough, greedy, aggressive and feel absolutely out of control…… They have gamed the system to a remarkable extent. And they have a docile president, a docile White House and a docile regulatory system that absolutely can’t find its voice. It’s terrified of these companies……

Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University speaking at the “Fixing the Banking System for Good” conference on April 17, 2013.

http://youtu.be/7VOWnnEphjI

April 19, 2013

Why Macroeconomics Doesn’t Work Very Well | Business Insider Australia

Noah Smith’s conclusion sums up the state of macroeconomics:

After the financial crisis, a bunch of people realised how little macroeconomists do know. I think people are now slowly realising just how little macroeconomists can know. There is a difference.

April 16, 2013

Pimco’s El-Erian: Markets Trading at ‘Very Artificial Levels’ | WSJ

Steven Russolillo at WSJ reports:

Actions by central bankers across the globe are propping up asset prices to artificial levels that are potentially putting investors at risk, Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

“Investors should recognize that in virtually every single market segment, we are trading at very artificial levels,” El-Erian told WSJ’s Francesco Guerrera. “It’s true for bonds, it’s true for equities. It’s true across the board.”

This reinforces my long-term bullish outlook for gold. Central banks are unlikely to cease their easy money policies any time soon. What we are currently witnessing is the opposite, with the Bank of Japan going ‘nuclear’ in an attempt to kill persistent deflation that has dogged them for over two decades.

I strongly recommend that you watch the video interview at Pimco’s El-Erian: Markets Trading at ‘Very Artificial Levels’ – MoneyBeat – WSJ.

April 14, 2013

S&P 500 rising while gold and bond yields fall

The S&P 500 is set to break resistance at 1600, which would suggest an advance to 1700, but expect a correction to test the new support level before the quarter ends. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy primary up-trend.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 – 1100 ) = 1600

The red and green arrows above indicate previous turning points at March and September quarter ends. A correction that respects support at 1500 in the current quarter would confirm the breakout.

Falling 10-year Treasury yields suggest that inflation expectations are falling. Breach of 1.70% would indicate another test of primary support at 1.40%, but rising Twiggs Momentum indicates that a bottom is forming.

Reversal of gold below $1500/ounce confirms that demand for gold as a safe-haven and inflation-hedge is fading — a bullish sign for stocks.
Gold

Bellwether transport stock Fedex dipped below $100 after an earnings disappointment but remains in a primary up-trend. Recovery above $100 would suggest that the economic recovery is on track, while breach of the rising trendline (and support at $85) would warn of a down-turn.
Fedex

Structural flaws in the US economy remain, but the market is gaining momentum and the current advance shows no signs of ending.