If we don’t understand both sides of China’s balance sheet, we understand neither | Michael Pettis

From Michael Pettis’ OpEd in the Wall St Journal:

History suggests that developing countries that have experienced growth “miracles” tend to develop risky financial systems and unstable national balance sheets. The longer the miracle, the greater the tendency. That’s because in periods of rapid growth, riskier institutions do well. Soon balance sheets across the economy incorporate similar types of risk.

….Over time, this means the entire financial system is built around the same set of optimistic expectations. But when growth slows, balance sheets that did well during expansionary phases will now systematically fall short of expectations, and their disappointing performance will further reinforce the economic deceleration. This is when it suddenly becomes costlier to refinance the gap, and the practice of mismatching assets and liabilities causes debt, not profits, to rise.

Read more at If we don’t understand both sides of China’s balance sheet, we understand neither | Michael Pettis’ CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

Why we should not blame the ECB for low returns on German savings | Bruegel

From Guntram Wolff, originally published in Die Welt:

Real Interest Rates

….what drives this decline in real interest rates? Real rates are determined by a whole set of economic factors, including growth prospects. Ultimately, it is economic performance that drives the return in investments. In a fast growing economy that is still building up its capital stock, real rates should be high as economic growth prospects are high. The opposite is true for an economy in a recessionary environment or an economy with already high capital stocks.

Read more at Why we should not blame the ECB for low returns on German savings | Bruegel.

Public Debt and the Long-Run Neutral Real Interest Rate | Narayana Kocherlakota

Extract from a speech by Narayana Kocherlakota, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, in Seoul, South Korea on August 19, 2015:

There has been a significant decline in the long-run neutral real interest rate in the United States over the past few years.

10-Year TIPS Yields

This decline in the long-run neutral real interest rate increases the future likelihood that the FOMC will be unable to achieve its objectives because of financial instability or because of a binding lower bound on the nominal interest rate. Plausible economic models imply that the fiscal authority can mitigate this problem by issuing more public debt, although such issuance is not without cost. It is, of course, the province of the fiscal authority to determine whether those costs are worth the benefits that I’ve emphasized…

How we got in this mess

There are two critically important price signals in the economy — the interest rate and the exchange rate. Tampering with them encourages distortions, leading to instability.

  • The Austrians were right: allow market forces of supply and demand to set a neutral interest rate.
  • The main function of regulators should be to ensure that debt growth is consistent with economic (GDP) growth else the banks can distort the supply of money by excessive debt creation.
  • The Austrians are also right about not running consistent fiscal deficits.
  • The other important element is to avoid consistent current account deficits to achieve a fair exchange rate.

None of these (in my view) sensible guidelines have been adhered to for the last half-century. Financial markets are in a real mess and Austrian “hands-off” policies are now insufficient to get us out of it. The only real alternative is to employ “hair of the dog” remedies advocated by Keynes: run fiscal deficits, increase public debt and distort real interest rates. Remember that Keynes published his General Theory in 1936 when financial markets were in an even bigger mess. Even a broken clock is right twice a day (or twice a century in Keynes case).

As for the Monetarists, Market Monetarists present the best opportunity to get us out of this “Keynesian hell” and set us on the path to Austrian (and Monetarist) utopia.

Read more of Narayana Kocherlakota’s speech at Public Debt and the Long-Run Neutral Real Interest Rate | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

Australia: Housing slowdown

From Westpac’s Red Book:

….the situation around housing does appear to be shifting. We highlighted a sharp fall in the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index as last month’s most significant development, warning that unless there was an equally sharp reversal in Aug it would likely mark the beginning of a further leg to the housing slowdown. The Aug update posted a solid but insufficient reversal. Home buyer sentiment does appear to be breaking lower and a further weakening in activity is now likely towards year end…..

Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?

The rally in bellwether transport stock Fedex was short-lived and it is once again testing primary support at $164. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity.

Fedex

The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this, declining since late 2014.

Freight Transportation Services Index

But the LoDI Index contradicts, continuing its climb.

LoDI Index

The LoDI Index uses linear regression analysis to combine cargo volume data from rail, barge, air, and truck transit, along with various economic factors. The resulting indicator is designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US and is represented by a value between 1 and 100. An index at or above 50 represents a healthy level of activity in the industry.

Growth in retail trade (excluding Motor Vehicles, Gasoline and Spares) also declined for the last two quarters but remains above core CPI.

Retail Trade ex-Gasoline, Motor Vehicles and Spares

On a positive note, however, light motor vehicle sales are climbing.

Light Motor Vehicle Sales

New building permits for private housing retreated in July but the trend remains upwards and new housing starts are increasing.

Housing Starts and Building Permits

Overall construction spending is also rising.

Construction Spending

Solid growth in spending on durables suggests further employment increases. This makes me reasonably confident that retail sales and freight/transport activity will recover. All the same, it would pay to keep a weather eye on Fedex and the transport indices.

[August 19th – This post was updated for Fedex and today’s release on Housing Permits and New Building Starts]

Anat Admati: Regulatory reform effort is an unfocused, complex mess

Telling it like it is. Anat Admati is Finance and Economics Professor at Stanford GSB and coauthor of The Bankers’ New Clothes.

Anat Admati

The financial system is not serving society well right now, certainly not as well as it can. It is a drag on the economy. Finance is fraught with governance problems. Free markets don’t solve these problems. Effective laws and regulation are essential.

……the regulatory reform effort is an unfocused, complex mess, both in design and in implementation. Some regulations end up as wasteful charades. They provide full employment and revolving opportunities for numerous lawyers, consultants, and regulators without producing enough benefits for society to justify the costs. Some of the complaints from the industry about these regulations have merit. In this category I put living wills, stress tests, risk weights, TLACs/cocos/bailinable debt (whatever the term for today), and liquidity coverage ratio. I am also concerned that, as implemented, central clearing of derivatives does not reduce, and may even increase, the concentration of dangerous risk. In all these contexts we see the pretense of action, the illusion of “science,” a false sense of safety, over-optimistic assessments of progress, and counterproductive distortions [emphasis added].

Lost in this mess are simpler, more straightforward regulations that would counter the incentives for recklessness and bring enormous benefits to society by making the system safer and healthier, as well as reducing unnecessary, unproductive risk that is a key source of system fragility, and the many distortions……..

Banks are not acting in society’s interests but their own. Not even primarily in the interests of shareholders but those of senior management. And they are doing their best to frustrate, obfuscate and capture regulators.

Finance is about money and power. Money and power can corrupt. So unlike in the airline business, in finance it is possible for the industry, regulators and politicians, to harm and endanger, to spin narratives and cover up the harm, and to be willfully blind, without any accountability. DoJ and the SEC must do their job, but they can’t deal with nonsense and capture.

So the biggest challenge in regulation is political. The details hardly matter if there is no political will. Unfortunately, most politicians put other objectives ahead of having a stable and healthy financial system. Ordinary people, meanwhile, may not be aware of what is going on or get confused by the spin. Not enough people understand why regulation is essential and what type of regulation makes sense.

What can be done? Here are some concrete ideas. First, increasing the pay of regulators may reduce revolving door incentives. Second, effective regulators might be industry veterans who are not inclined to go back. Third, we must try to reduce the role of money in politics.

To fix this, we need to break the feedback loop between Wall Street and government — the revolving door between regulators and the financial sector and between lobbyists and elected representatives. Otherwise the system will remain hijacked to enrich a few at the expense of the many.

Read more at Making Financial Regulations Work for Society: Comments by Anat Admati | Finance and Society INET Conference

CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac: The incredible shrinking big four banks | afr.com

Great article by Chris Joye:

Welcome to the world of that beautiful $140 billion behemoth, the Commonwealth Bank, which has inverted the axiom that there is a trade-off between risk and return. Years ago I highlighted a perversion embedded at the heart of our financial system: the supposedly lowest (highest) risk banks were producing the highest (lowest) returns. Normally it works the other way around.

…..contrary to some optimistic reports, the capital-raising game has only just begun.

The terrific news for shareholders is that this belated deleveraging will transform the majors into some of the safest banks in the world, which will be able to comfortably withstand a 1991-style recession, exacerbated by a 20 per cent decline in house prices.

In the past I have been critical of APRA’s failure to properly police Australia’s vastly-undercapitalized banking system but must now give them credit for their leadership towards creating a world-class system that will be able to withstand serious endogenous or exogenous economic shocks.

Shareholders face lower returns from reduced leverage but will benefit from improved valuations due to lower risk premiums and stronger, more stable, long-term growth.

Read more at CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac: The incredible shrinking big four banks | afr.com.

Dollar strengthens on low inflation

Core CPI continues to hover below the Fed’s 2.0% target, while plunging oil prices keep the broad index close to zero. Core CPI is likely to weaken as the beneficial effect of lower energy costs flows through to all sectors of the economy.

CPI and Core CPI

We often read of the threat of impending deflation — which may well occur. But one needs to differentiate between deflation caused by a surge in aggregate supply, as in the present situation, and a fall in aggregate demand as in 2008. The former may well act as a stimulus to the global economy, while the latter threatens a negative feedback loop between income and consumption which can lead to substantial falls in output.

Low inflation takes pressure off the Fed to raise interest rates but we can expect the first increment later this year. 10-Year Treasury yields respected the rising trendline and support at 2.10%, suggesting another test of 2.50%.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The higher trough on the Dollar Index indicates buying pressure and breakout above 98 would signal another test of 100. In the longer term, breakout above 100 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend but is likely to meet push-back from the Fed as a higher dollar would hurt both exporters and domestic producers competing against imports.

Dollar Index