Analysis of the global economy
Economist Nouriel Roubini says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent, and he’s putting his money in cash.
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On 1 November 2010 the Fed commenced QE2, purchasing US Treasurys with the stated intention of reducing long term interest rates. Over the next 4 months, 10-Year Treasury yields rose by 120 basis points (1.20%).
Why do we need the Fed, who can’t punch their way out of a paper bag, when a rating agency (S&P) can send yields plunging 65 points in less than two weeks. 🙂
There is a much more straightforward basis for questioning S&P’s conduct, and it has nothing to do with how S&P arrived at its rating. There is compelling evidence that the ratings agency made selective disclosure of its downgrade decision before it made it public last Friday evening. A reader told us certain hedge funds were informed Tuesday and traded successfully on the information. A separate source had told me certain banks were briefed on Thursday and were told of the US downgrade but assured their ratings would be unaffected. On Friday morning, Twitter was alight with the news.
It appears that some market participants were aware of the coming downgrade even earlier — on Friday [?] the previous week.
Posted August 3, 2011 8:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. AET) on Trading Diary.
Markets are approaching the tipping point at which they will confirm a primary down-trend. The probability of a bear market is around 75 percent, with 80 about as high as you can get at a turning point. As highlighted in May, every significant spike in crude oil prices in the last 50 years has been followed by a recession — and the current spike is likely to prove no different. Ben Bernanke will modestly decline to take the credit, but the initial groundwork for higher oil prices was laid by QEII. Prices had started to rise well before the conflict in Libya.
Investor flight to safety is clearly signaled by the sharp fall in 10-year treasury yields.
Other safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc display a corresponding spike over the last few days.
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