Analysis of the global economy
The Board of the Reserve Bank surprised us with a decision to hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.25%. Whilst this indicates that for the time being the Bank is assessing the risks somewhat differently to ourselves we are not inclined to change our core view that a further 50bps in easing can be expected over the course of the first half of this year.
Bill Evans
Chief Economist
Bill Moyers interviews investment banker and former Reagan budget director, David Stockman:
Crony capitalism: the revolving door between Washington and Wall Street. A 53-minute video, but worth the time.
WSJ: Mean Street
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Brett Arends exposes flaws in Eurozone efforts to resolve the currency crisis.
The Baltic Dry Index has fallen by more than 60 percent in the last 3 months, headed for a test of its 2008 low at 600. The index reflects bulk international shipping rates and is dominated by Capesize iron ore and coal shipments to China. Its fall coincides with a 23 percent drop in iron ore spot prices over the last quarter of 2011. Falling demand for raw materials from China warns that economic activity is slowing rapidly and there may not be a soft landing.
Australia and other resource-rich economies will need to brace themselves for a sharp fall in exports over the year ahead.
Bill Moyers talks with former Citigroup Chairman John Reed and former Senator Byron Dorgan to explore a momentous instance: how the mid-90’s merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group — with help from Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Bill Clinton — brought down the Glass-Steagall Act and sowed the seeds of the GFC.
Central banks are ruling markets to a degree this generation has not seen. Collectively they are printing money to a degree never seen in human history.
So how does this process get reversed? How do central banks pull back trillions of dollars of money printing without throwing markets into a tailspin? Frankly, no one knows, least of all central banks as they continue to make new money printing records.
…..When/If these central banks go too far, as was eventually the case with home prices, expanding balance sheets will no longer be looked upon in a positive light. Instead they will be viewed in the same light as CDOs backed by sub-prime mortgages were when home prices were falling. The heads of these central banks will no longer be put on a pedestal but looked upon as eight Alan Greenspans that caused a financial crisis.
The business investment momentum is continuing into 2012. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft–a proxy for future business spending–increased 2.9% in December, reversing the two previous monthly drops. The backlog of unfilled orders is also on the rise. Fulfilling that pent-up demand means more industrial production in 2012.
via Business Sector Is More Open for Business – Real Time Economics – WSJ.
The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
That’s a clear declaration of intended QE3 if conditions are met. The two conditions are price stability and inadequate employment growth. Price stability now has a number with the Fed also announcing a new inflation target of 2%. Anything under that number potentially triggers QE3.
via The winners and losers of QE3 – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
The chart shows clearly the build up of debt heading into the bust, and the subsequent deleveraging. Overall public and private debt, by this measure, peaked at 302% of GDP in the first quarter of 2009. Since then, it has fallen to 279% as the economy has grown and some private players have lightened their debt loads.
via What’s Going on With Debt in U.S.? – Real Time Economics – WSJ.
Comment: ~ The Financial sector can be ignored as this merely acts as a conduit for, and mirrors, the other sectors. My concern is that Government debt is growing at a faster rate than the fall in Household and Nonfinancial Corporations debt. That is unsustainable and is likely to reverse after the November elections. At which point the economy will contract.
[BOE Governor Mervyn King] kept the door open for more stimulus in his speech Tuesday. “With inflation falling back and wage growth subdued, there is scope for interest rates to remain low and, if necessary, for further asset purchases, to prevent inflation falling below the 2% target,” he said. The annual rate of inflation in the U.K. dipped to 4.2% in December from 4.8% a month earlier, and is expected to slow sharply this year.
