US & Canada Archives - Page 95 of 172

July 28, 2013

S&P 500 support but TSX bearish

The S&P 500 ran into resistance at 1700, but long tails on the last two days indicate support at 1675. Follow-through above 1700 would offer a target of 1800*. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates a healthy up-trend, but a lower peak than May would warn of selling pressure. Reversal below support at 1650 is unlikely, warning of another test of primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The VIX below 15 indicates historically low market risk.

VIX Index

Canada’s TSX 60 VIX is similarly bullish.

TSX 60 VIX Index

The TSX Composite Index encountered resistance below 12900, however, and declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of continued selling pressure. Respect of 12900 would indicate another test of 11750. Breakout above 12900 is less likely, but would offer a long-term target of 14000*.

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

July 25, 2013

Forex: Euro strengthens, Loonie and Aussie weaken

The Euro continues to test medium-term resistance at $1.32. Respect of primary support at $1.27 is likely, following bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Breakout above $1.32 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above $1.37 would confirm a fresh advance, offering a target of $1.50. Reversal below $1.27 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

The greenback continues to test resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie respected support at $0.94, suggesting a rally to test resistance at parity against the greenback. The monthly chart displays long-term selling pressure, however, and another test of primary support at $0.94 is likely. Breakout would warn offer a target of $0.84*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum already suggests a primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

A monthly chart of the Aussie Dollar displays a similar pattern against the greenback, with a broad top followed by breakout below primary support at $0.95. Support at $0.90 provides temporary respite, but the long-term target is $0.80*. Again, declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

The Aussie/Kiwi cross has exceeded its target of $1.15*, steady decline on the weekly chart reflecting the impact of falling commodity prices. Breakout above the descending trendline would indicate a rally to test resistance at $1.21, but that seems a way off with the decline in 13-week Twiggs Momentum accelerating.

Aussie/Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.21 – ( 1.27 – 1.21 ) = 1.15

July 21, 2013

S&P 500 breakout

Short candles on the S&P 500 indicate some opposition, but breakout above resistance at 1675 indicates an advance to 1800*. Follow-through above 1700 would strengthen the signal. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure — and a healthy up-trend. Reversal below 1650 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The VIX below 15 suggests low market risk.

VIX Index

The TSX Composite Index is advancing towards resistance at 12900. Breakout would signal a primary advance, with a long-term target of 14000*. Follow-through above 13000 would strengthen the signal. Breach of the declining trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would also suggest improving buying pressure. Respect of 12900, however, and reversal of 13-week TMF below zero, would warn of another test of 11750.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

July 21, 2013

Finally, Bank Regulators Have Had Enough | ProPublica

Jesse Eisinger observes US bank reactions to efforts to raise their minimum capital requirements. Many argue that the new rules will harm their competiveness.

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan, raised the ominous specter that global rules are out of “harmonization” and that United States banks are now held to a higher standard.

“We have one part of the world at two times what the other part of the world is talking about,” he said. “And I don’t think there’s any industry out there that would be comfortable with something like that in a long run.”

To rebut that, I bring in a banking expert: Jamie Dimon. This side of Mr. Dimon’s mouth has repeatedly boasted about what a competitive advantage JPMorgan’s “fortress balance sheet” is, how the bank was a port in the 2008 storm…….

By raising capital standards and installing tougher derivatives rules, regulators are helping banks that are too foolish (or rather, the top executives who are too narrowly self-interested in increasing their own compensation in the short term) to recognize their own interests.

Increasing bank capital requirements would lower their perceived risk and decrease their cost of capital, giving them an advantage over international rivals with less stringent standards.

July 17, 2013

Canadian housing bubble looks ripe for popping | Toronto Star

Adam Peterson writes the Canadian housing bubble is headed for a “slow-motion” crash:

My gravest concern is that Canada is fast approaching a 5:1 home-price-to-income ratio, a benchmark achieved by the U.S. at the peak in 2006. Since the correction, the U.S. ratio now hovers at approximately 3:1.

To compound the problem, household debt in Canada has breached 150 per cent of income and continues in the wrong direction; households are not cushioned against a blow.

Australian household debt is also hovering around 150% of disposable income.

Australian household debt to disposable income

While the price-to-income ratio varies between 4 and more than 6 depending on whether you use national averages or median data.
Australian house price-to-income ratio

July 15, 2013

S&P 500 and TSX advance

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1675 but the short candle indicates (short-term) selling pressure. Follow-through above the May high at 1690 would confirm the primary advance, with a target of 1800*. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1650 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The VIX below 15 indicates market optimism.

VIX Index

The TSX Composite Index has advanced strongly since the bear trap below 12000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 12900. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 14000*. Reversal below 12000 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend; confirmed if 11750 is broken.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

July 11, 2013

US banks face tougher capital requirements

Yalman Onaran and Jesse Hamilton at Bloomberg report on a new joint proposal by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency:

The biggest U.S. banks, after years of building equity, may continue hoarding profits instead of boosting dividends as they face stricter capital rules than foreign competitors.

The eight largest firms, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS), would need to retain capital equal to at least 5 percent of assets, while their banking units would have to hold a minimum of 6 percent, U.S. regulators proposed yesterday. The international equivalent, ignoring the riskiness of assets, is 3 percent. The banks have until 2018 to fully comply.

The U.S. plan goes beyond rules approved by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis, which almost destroyed the financial system. The changes would make lenders fund more assets with capital that can absorb losses instead of using borrowed money. Bankers say this could trigger asset sales and hurt their ability to lend, hamstringing the nation’s economic recovery.

While the authors term the new regulations “harsh” on bankers and likely to freeze bank lending, existing lax capital requirements give bankers a free ride at the expense of the taxpayer. Their claims are baseless:

existing bank leverage is way too high for a stable financial system;
US banks are flush with funds, holding more than $1.8 trillion in excess reserves on deposit with the Fed and $2.6 trillion invested in Treasuries and quasi-government mortgage-backed securities, so talk of a lending freeze is farcical;
banks can function just as well with equity funding as with deposit funding;
higher capital ratios will make it cheaper for banks to raise additional capital as lower leverage will reduce the risk premium.

So why are bankers squealing so loudly? In a nutshell: bonuses. Higher capital requirements and no free ride at taxpayers’ expense would mean that shareholders claim a bigger slice of the pie, with less left over for management bonuses.

For a detailed rebuttal of bankers’ claims see Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig.

The big four Australian banks should take note. They currently maintain between 4.1% (CBA) and 4.5% (WBC) of capital against lending exposure. Raising the ratio to 6.0% would require 33% to 50% new capital.

July 11, 2013

Forex: Dollar falls sharply against Euro, Aussie, Loonie and Yen

The dollar fell sharply against the Euro and Sterling. The Euro jumped from primary support at $1.28 to medium-term resistance at $1.32. Breakout above $1.32 would suggest a primary advance, with a target of $1.40* — confirmed if resistance at $1.34 is broken. But oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero does not indicate a strong trend and respect of resistance is just as likely.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Pound Sterling is weakening against the euro, breach of medium-term support at €1.16 suggesting a test of primary support at €1.1350 on the weekly chart. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate a strong primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of the 2011 low at €1.10.
Pound Sterling

The greenback retreated below support at ¥100 against the Yen. Recovery above ¥100 would indicate continuation of the advance, with a target of ¥114*. Respect of the new resistance level, however, remains as likely and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at $0.96, suggesting a rally to the descending trendline and resistance at $0.9850 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.96, however, would warn that all bets are off and another test of support at $0.9450 is likely. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar penetrated its secondary descending trendline, suggesting a rally to test the primary trendline at $0.96. But first we need a break of resistance at $0.93, while follow-through above $0.94 would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance, however, would warn of another test of immediate support at $0.90, while the long-term target remains at $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA is not averse to this: they need a softer dollar to cushion the impact of falling commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

July 10, 2013

S&P 500 hesitates but ASX 200 follows through

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1650. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for the advance would be 1800*. Follow-through above 1660 would strengthen the bull signal, but reversal below 1640 would warn of another test of 1600 — and a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern (as shown by the arrows) if support at 1600 is respected.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The ASX 200 found resistance at 4900, with a tall shadow (or wick) on Wednesday’s candle. A healthy start this morning suggests a test of 5000. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 10, 2013

Making banks hold more capital is not going to wreck the economy

Mark Gongloff quotes Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig of the Max Planck Institute, authors of the recent book The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong With Banking And What To Do About It, from their point-by-point rebuttal of bankers arguments that they should not be required to hold more capital:

“Many banks, including most of the large banks in the United States, are not even using all the funding they obtain from depositors to make loans,” Admati and Hellwig write. “If banks do not make loans, therefore, the problem is not a lack of funds nor an inability to raise more funds for profitable loans, but rather the banks’ choices to focus on other investments instead.”