Total estimated outflows from long-term mutual funds were $40.29 billion for the week ended Wednesday, August 10, the Investment Company Institute reported today.
In Praise of Timely, Blatant Incompetence | Mike Shedlock | Safehaven.com
Many are in shock that the S&P downgraded debt of the US from AAA. Not me. It was long overdue.
However, the S&P proved it was incompetent in the way it made the downgrade. Pray tell how can a rating agency make a $2 trillion error? The answer is obvious: sheer incompetence.
The irony is Moody’s and Fitch proved they are incompetent by not downgrading U.S. debt.
via In Praise of Timely, Blatant Incompetence | Mike Shedlock | Safehaven.com.
30-Yr. Mortgage Rate: New Low
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has fallen to its lowest level on records dating to 1971. The rate on the most popular mortgage dipped to 4.15 percent from 4.32 percent a week ago, Freddie Mac said Thursday. Its previous low of 4.17 percent was reached in November.
The last time long-term rates were lower was in the 1950s, when 30-year loans weren’t widely available. Most long-term home loans lasted 20 or 25 years.
Dow threatens support
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply on Thursday, accompanied by strong volume. Failure of support at 10700 would complete the dead cat bounce, offering a target of the 2010 low at 9600*.
* Target calculation: 10800 – ( 12000 – 10800 ) = 9600
Loonie turns
After breaking its long-term rising trendline against the greenback, followed by primary support at $1.01, the Canadian Loonie is testing resistance at $1.02. Weak economic data should increase selling pressure. Reversal below $1.01 would confirm the down-trend, offering a target of $0.96*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 – ( 1.06 – 1.01 ) = 0.96
US debt shrinkage slows
Having fallen by almost $1 trillion since its peak in 2009, the decline in US bank lending is slowing, with the annual rate of change approaching zero. A stable level of debt would reduce deflationary pressure and signal that residential and commercial real estate prices are bottoming.
Most of the money pumped into the economy over the last year leaked straight back out, with excess bank reserves deposited with the Fed rising by more than $500 billion.
ICI – Long-Term Mutual Fund Flows, August 10, 2011
Total estimated outflows from long-term mutual funds were $16.94 billion for the week ended Wednesday, August 3, the Investment Company Institute reported today.
Michael Barone: The Fall of the Midwest Economic Model – WSJ.com
So what does the president have to offer the Midwest? The idea that the wave of the future is an ever-larger public sector financed by a more or less stagnant private sector looks increasingly absurd. The Midwest’s public sector has, as Margaret Thatcher put it, run on “other people’s money.” Meanwhile, Mr. Obama’s trip to the Midwest has been preceded by Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s foray into Waterloo, Iowa. Mr. Perry points out that his state, with low taxes and light regulation, has been producing nearly half of America’s new jobs.
via Michael Barone: The Fall of the Midwest Economic Model – WSJ.com.
What a real bounce looks like
Question from Flint:
If this is an example of a dead cat bounce then what would we look for in a real bounce… .
The best example I can find is the mini-crash of October 1997. The Dow gapped down sharply following a fall in Asian markets, but met with strong buying support the next day. The total correction of 12% did not reach the 6400 level from start of the year. The long-term rising trendline was not tested and 63-Day Twiggs Momentum declined but failed to break below zero. Volume doubled in the week following the crash, confirming buying support.
The 2011 crash is not specific to one region as with the 1997 Asian crisis. The index had not made much progress for the year and the fall of 17% broke well below the starting level of 11500. The long-term rising trendline was breached and 63-Day Twiggs Momentum dropped sharply below zero. Volume doubled in the week following the crash, as in 1997, but this is a completely different scenario: it would take similar volume for 4/5 successive weeks to stop the bear market in its tracks.
TSX evening star
The TSX Composite retraced to test the new resistance level at 12750. Declining volume and Friday’s red candle warn that buyers are losing interest. Reversal below 12400 would complete an evening star candlestick reversal.
* Target calculation: 11600 – ( 12800 – 11600 ) = 10400