Looks like something positive is brewing in Europe, but I don’t want to jump the gun. China looks weak, US probably through its worst, Europe still faces plenty of pain even if fiscal reform and euro-bonds introduced. Game changer would be QE/asset purchases by Fed and ECB.
Canada: TSX 60 respects trendline
Canada’s TSX 60 index is testing medium-term support at 650. Respect of the descending trendline and 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero both suggest another decline. Failure of primary support at 625 would offer a target of 580*.
* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580
S&P 500 breaks 1200
The S&P 500 index broke medium-term support at 1200 and is headed for a test of the primary level at 1100. Failure would offer a target of 900*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900
NASDAQ 100 index is similarly headed for the band of primary support between 2000 and 2050. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. failure of support would signal a primary decline to 1600*.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 1600
Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly chart shows the index testing medium-term support at 11000. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero again warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would test the primary level at 10400; and failure of that level would remove any doubt regarding a bear market.
* Target calculation: 10400 – ( 12300 – 10400 ) = 8500
Europe’s Last Best Chance – Michael Boskin – Project Syndicate
Reforming social-welfare benefits is the only permanent solution to Europe’s crisis. One hopes that, with the help of national governments, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Financial Stability Facility, the holes in the sovereign-debt-funding dike will be temporarily plugged, and that European banks will be recapitalized. But this will work only if structural reforms make these economies far more competitive. They must both lower the tax burden and reduce bloated transfer payments. Too many people are collecting benefits relative to those working and paying taxes.
via Europe’s Last Best Chance – Michael Boskin – Project Syndicate.
NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge
The 3 big reasons the Fed had gotten it wrong:
- Misunderstanding of the housing boom. Staff analysis of the increase in house prices did not find convincing evidence of overvaluation (see, for example, McCarthy and Peach [2004] and Himmelberg, Mayer, and Sinai [2005]). Thus, we downplayed the risk of a substantial fall in house prices. A robust approach would have put the bar much lower than convincing evidence.
- A lack of analysis of the rapid growth of new forms of mortgage finance. Here the reliance on the assumption of efficient markets appears to have dulled our awareness of many of the risks building in financial markets in 2005-07. However, a March 2008 New York Fed staff report by Ashcraft and Schuermann provided a detailed analysis of how incentives were misaligned throughout the securitization process of subprime mortgages–meaning that the market was not functioning efficiently.
- Insufficient weight given to the powerful adverse feedback loops between the financial system and the real economy. Despite a good understanding of the risk of a financial crisis from mid-2007 onward, we were unable to fully connect the dots to real activity until 2008. Eventually, by building on the insights of Adrian and Shin (2008), we gained a better grasp of the power of these feedback loops.
[The author of the NY Fed report] then added that perhaps the biggest reason for the failure was “complacency,” with which I heartily concur, but to which I would also add hubris and stupidity.
via NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge.
A radical redistribution of income undermined US entrepreneurship | Bill Mitchell – billy blog
All components of private debt grew significantly in the decade leading up to the financial crisis which consumer debt leading the way. The household sector, in particular, already squeezed for liquidity by the move to build increasing federal surpluses during the Clinton era, were enticed by lower interest rates and the vehement marketing strategies of the financial engineers to borrow increasing amounts…..While this strategy sustained consumption growth for a time it was unsustainable because it relied on the private sector becoming increasingly indebted. ……With growth being maintained by increasing credit the balance sheets of private households and firms became increasingly precarious and it was only a matter of time before households and firms realized they had to restore some semblance of security by resuming saving.
via A radical redistribution of income undermined US entrepreneurship | Bill Mitchell – billy blog.
Commodities drag Aussie and Canadian dollar lower
Commodities are weakening and dragging the Aussie and Loonie lower. The Aussie dollar shows a similar iceberg pattern on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a primary down-trend. Breakout below primary support at $0.94 would offer a long-term target of $0.80*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80
Canada’s Loonie is also headed for a test of $0.94 against the greenback. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support (0.94) would offer a target of $0.87*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87
S&P 500 continues to mimic early 2008
Looking at the S&P 500 weekly chart, it continues to follow the same pattern as in early 2008. There is a similar false recovery above medium-term resistance at 1200 (compared to 1400 in 2008) followed by reversal below the new support level. Also, a similar 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line warns of a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900
ICI – Exchange-Traded Fund Assets, September 2011
Assets of all exchange-traded funds fell in September by $89.29 billion, or 8.6 percent, to $951.46 billion.
Over the past 12 months, ETF assets increased $68.71 billion, or 7.8 percent. Assets in domestic equity ETFs increased $55.08 billion since September 2010, and global equity ETFs assets fell $13.78 billion during this period.
ICI – Trends in Mutual Fund Investing, September 2011
The combined assets of the nation’s mutual funds decreased by $582.3 billion, or 5.0 percent, to $11.040 trillion in September, according to the Investment Company Institute’s official survey of the mutual fund industry.
via ICI – Trends in Mutual Fund Investing, September 2011.
The fall in Stock Funds was far greater, at 9.5%, compared to only 1.3% in Taxable Bond Funds and 0.1% in Taxable Money Market Funds.