Dow not yet out of the woods

Dow Jones Industrial Average followed through on its breakout above the 10600-11700 trading range but expect some resistance at 12000. The index looks set for a decent rally after narrow consolidation below resistance at 11700. Target for the breakout is 12600*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11600 + ( 11600 – 10600 ) = 12600

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes also rallied as funds flowed back into stocks, but we are not yet out of the woods.

10-Year Treasury Yield

There is bound to be a relief rally when EU leaders announce details of their rescue package — followed by a pull-back when traders figure out the costs involved. The danger is that Germany and France do an “Ireland” and rescue the banks but put themselves at risk. Both have public debt to GDP ratios close to 80 percent and it would not take much to push them into the danger zone. If they are down-graded then the kids are home alone — there will be no adults left in the room. A down-grade would raise their cost of funding and place their own budgets under pressure.

The S&P 500 is also testing resistance at 1260; breakout would confirm a Dow signal. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow is rising but no bullish divergence means this could be secondary (medium-term) buying pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1120 + ( 1220 – 1120 ) = 1320

Nasdaq 100 index displays an ascending broadening wedge as it approaches resistance at 2400. The ascending wedge is a bearish pattern: Bulkowski maintains that it breaks out downward 73% of the time. Target would be the base of the pattern at 2000. Bullish divergence on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicates strong buying pressure. Breakout above 2450 would signal a primary advance to 2600*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2200 ) = 2600

E-Commerce Shipments to Drive Record FedEx Holiday Volume | FedEx Global Newsroom

MEMPHIS, Tenn., Oct. 24, 2011 – FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) expects to move more than 17 million shipments – almost double its daily average volume – through its global networks on December 12, the projected busiest day in company history. The 10 percent year-over-year increase will be driven by FedEx SmartPost, a residential shipping service designed for online and catalog retailers, as well as expected increased volume at FedEx Ground and FedEx Home Delivery.

via E-Commerce Shipments to Drive Record FedEx Holiday Volume | FedEx Global Newsroom.

Podcast: Paul Volcker’s Warnings, the S.E.C.’s Privacy Problem and Some Economic Pitfalls – NYTimes.com

Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, warns that we are not out of the woods yet….. Mr. Volcker focuses on two big problems.

First, he says, money market funds should be treated like other mutual funds — whose price can fluctuate — rather than as guaranteed stores of value, like bank accounts. In addition, he says, the United States needs to plan on eventually shutting down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two agencies that now dominate the mortgage market.

via Podcast: Paul Volcker’s Warnings, the S.E.C.’s Privacy Problem and Some Economic Pitfalls – NYTimes.com.

The Dismal Optimist by Peter T. Treadway

Supply side measures are something most macro economists – with a few exceptions – never consider. By supply side I mean those rules, regulations, laws and taxes that hold back economic growth. Supply side measures are growth enhancers and would include:

1. A simplified tax code that maximizes revenue and does not punish the successful. Raising taxes in the midst of a recession, as is now being tried in Greece, is simply the wrong approach.

2. Reform and liberalization of the labor markets. This is particularly important in Europe which suffers from rigid labor laws. German labor reforms under former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder have been cited as a major reason for increased German productivity over the last few years.

3. The removal of massive regulatory burdens and government bureaucracies supporting them. The recent media report that the government-based Washington DC area now has the highest income of any area in the United States is not good news. (I am told by people in the energy field that the US is now swimming in oil and natural gas thanks to new discoveries and new technologies. But the current US Administration is blocking their development).

4. The removal of barriers to commerce such as protectionist tariff and non-tariff regulations etc.

5. The elimination of government subsidies to pet industries be they green or gray.

6. A privatized approach to education to train people to compete in the globalized, technologically accelerating, highly competitive twenty first century world.

via The Dismal Optimist by Peter T. Treadway.

Regulators Seize Main PMI Subsidiary – WSJ.com

The main subsidiary of mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. has been seized by insurance regulators in Arizona, and will begin paying just 50% of claims beginning Monday, according to its website…… Mortgage insurers have suffered from billions of dollars in losses on policies they sold in the years just before the housing bubble burst. PMI alone has reported about $3 billion in losses since the fourth quarter of 2007.

via Regulators Seize Main PMI Subsidiary – WSJ.com.

Obama Announces Complete Drawdown of U.S. Troops From Iraq by Year’s End – ABC News

“Today, I can report that as promised, the rest of our troops in Iraq will come home by the end of the year,” the president [Obama] said. “After nine years, America’s war in Iraq will be over.”

via Obama Announces Complete Drawdown of U.S. Troops From Iraq by Year’s End – ABC News.

Doesn’t it just inspire you with confidence in the political system when battlefield decisions are made to coincide with the presidential election campaign — and enemies are notified of troop withdrawals two months in advance — so they can plan a “going away” party for your troops.

Ron Paul: “Blame The Fed For The Financial Crisis” | ZeroHedge

The Fed fails to grasp that an interest rate is a price—the price of time—and that attempting to manipulate that price is as destructive as any other government price control. It fails to see that the price of housing was artificially inflated through the Fed’s monetary pumping during the early 2000s, and that the only way to restore soundness to the housing sector is to allow prices to return to sustainable market levels. Instead, the Fed’s actions have had one aim—to keep prices elevated at bubble levels—thus ensuring that bad debt remains on the books and failing firms remain in business, albatrosses around the market’s neck.

The Fed’s quantitative easing programs increased the national debt by trillions of dollars. The debt is now so large that if the central bank begins to move away from its zero interest-rate policy, the rise in interest rates will result in the U.S. government having to pay hundreds of billions of dollars in additional interest on the national debt each year. Thus there is significant political pressure being placed on the Fed to keep interest rates low. The Fed has painted itself so far into a corner now that even if it wanted to raise interest rates, as a practical matter it might not be able to do so.

via Ron Paul: “Blame The Fed For The Financial Crisis” | ZeroHedge.

I agree that the Fed should not interfere with interest rates. It causes market imbalances that later lead to recessions and bubbles in stocks and housing and threaten the very survival of the banking system the Fed is trying to protect.

QE achieved the opposite of its stated objectives, raising long-term interest rates with lowering unemployment, but did not really increase the national debt by a dollar. Sales of  bonds by the Federal Treasury to the Federal Reserve is like the US government selling to itself. The Fed is just an off-balance sheet, special-purpose entity (think Enron, bank CDOs and other bad smells) created by  the government and banks in 1913 to  bypass restrictions in the Constitution on the issue of bank notes. In all but name it is a division of the US Treasury. The majority of the “independent” board of directors are political appointments. Ever seen a dissenting vote coming from one of the political appointees? Regional board members, where most dissenting votes come from, are a minority appointed by regional banks. They can dissent, but when it comes to counting the votes they’re outnumbered.

Forex overview

The euro is consolidating above $1.365; failure of support would re-test $1.315, warning of another primary decline. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line would confirm a strong primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.40 – 1.32 ) = 1.24

The pound retraced to test resistance at $1.59/1.60 on the weekly chart. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, suggests a strong down-trend. Reversal below $1.53 would offer a target of $1.46*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

Canada’s Loonie resembles the Aussie dollar: reversal below short-term support at $0.975 would test $0.94. Respect of the descending trendline would also warn of a decline to $0.88*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88

The Aussie dollar is testing support at $1.28 against its Kiwi counterpart after completing a double bottom. Respect of support would confirm the target of $1.32*.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.28 + ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.32

The greenback is ranging in a narrow band above ¥76, supported by the Bank of Japan. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero confirms the strong down-trend.

USDJPY

The greenback recovered above R8.00 on the weekly chart against the South African Rand. Expect another test of R8.50. Upward breakout would warn of an accelerating up-trend that is likely to lead to a blow-off.

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 7.70 ) = 9.30

Tough Day For Our Calamity Economy | ZeroHedge

In other parts of the economy, early warning signs are also flashing. Capital One, one of the largest credit card issuers in the US, reported that 30-day delinquencies were rising—consumers are getting strung out again. Two days ago, the Empire State Manufacturing index came in at -8.5, in negative territory for the fifth straight month. On a very dark note, its future general business conditions sub-index, which measures expectations, fell to its lowest level since February 2009, the depth of the financial crisis. International business travel has fallen off a cliff at the end of August. And ominously, inbound port traffic is down, probably due to declining expectations for holiday sales.

via Tough Day For Our Calamity Economy | ZeroHedge.

The Day the U.S. Treasury Doomed America :: The Market Oracle

Average Treasury bond maturities reached a low of 50 months in 2009. They’ve since been lengthened a bit to 62 months, but that still leaves the U.S. Treasury with a major refinancing risk. The Treasury will have to refinance some $2 trillion of outstanding debt in the next year – and that’s in addition to the $1.5 trillion of new debt it’s going to have to issue in that time.

That doesn’t leave much room to maneuver if markets get sticky. It also leaves a serious potential budget hole.

via The Day the U.S. Treasury Doomed America :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.