Category: US & Canada

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J.P. Morgan, Goldman Get a Dose of Fed's Reserve | WSJ.com

David Reilly reports on the Fed’s latest stress tests:

The passes show how far big U.S. banks have come since the financial crisis. But capital levels seen under the tests, and taking into account the capital-return plans, weren’t especially strong. Tier 1 common ratios for J.P. Morgan and Goldman, for example, were only marginally above the 5% minimum needed.

What’s more, leverage ratios including capital returns are particularly thin: Of the six biggest banks, four had ratios below 5%. While above the test’s 3% minimum, such levels wouldn’t give banks tremendous room to maneuver in a crisis.

The leverage ratios are particularly telling because they don’t allow for risk-weighting of assets. That approach is coming under increased criticism for potentially allowing banks to mask the true level of risk on their books.

Read more at HEARD ON THE STREET: J.P. Morgan, Goldman Get a Dose of Fed's Reserve – WSJ.com.

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The fire next door: Mexico's war on drugs

Since the Mexican government initiated a military offensive against its country’s powerful drug cartels in December 2006, some 50,000 people have perished and the drugs continue to flow. The growing violence has created concerns that Mexico could become a failed state, and U.S. political leaders also worry that the corruption and violence is seeping across the border into the United States.

In his compelling new book, Ted Galen Carpenter details the growing horror overtaking Mexico and explains how the current U.S.-backed strategies for trying to stem Mexico’s drug violence have been a disaster. Boldly conveyed in The Fire Next Door, the only effective strategy is to defund the Mexican drug cartels by abandoning the failed drug prohibition policy, thereby eliminating the lucrative black-market premium and greatly reducing the financial resources of the drug cartels.

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Fed's Fisher: Too-big-to-fail banks are crony capitalists | Reuters

Pedro Nicolaci da Costa reports

The largest U.S. banks are “practitioners of crony capitalism,” need to be broken up to ensure they are no longer considered too big to fail, and continue to threaten financial stability, a top Federal Reserve official said on Saturday……

[Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed] said the existence of banks that are seen as likely to receive government bailouts if they fail gives them an unfair advantage, hurting economic competitiveness.

Read more at Fed's Fisher: Too-big-to-fail banks are crony capitalists | Reuters.

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Iraq War Diary

Remarkably raw. Ten years after the invasion of Iraq, Tim McLaughlin’s diary reveals a personal history of 9/11 and the war in Iraq.

Tim McLaughlin: Iraq War Diary

[click the image to view slideshow]

via Foreign Policy

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Expanding debt: Dousing the flames with gasoline

We are now in the fifth year of recovery from the worst financial crisis in 50 years — fueled by expanding household debt, rising from 50% of GDP in the 1980s to close to 100% in 2008. Contraction since the GFC has brought US household debt back to 80% of GDP…

Household Debt as % of GDP

But a worrying sign is that consumer debt has started to rise
Consumer Debt as a % of Disposable Income

And Steve Keen points out that margin debt is also rising, fueling the latest stock market rally.

Yahoo: Steve Keen Interview
[click on the image to view the video in a separate window]

Holding interest rates at artificially low levels for an extended period risks fueling another credit bubble. The Fed/central bank needs to react quickly to expanding credit in any area of the economy. We all hope for a recovery, but it must be sustainable — with consumption fueled by rising employment rather than rising debt — and not another debt-fueled boom-then-bust.

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Forex: Euro declines while Aussie follows through

The euro retreated below support at $1.30, indicating a correction to primary support at $1.2650. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough close to zero would suggest a primary advance, with a long-term target of $1.50*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.50

Pound sterling found short-term support against the dollar but the long-term target for the decline is $1.43*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar followed through after breaking out above $1.03, signaling a rally to $1.06. Reversal below $1.02 is now unlikely, but would warn that primary support at $1.015 is again under threat. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The Canadian Loonie found medium-term support at $0.97 against the greenback, but we should still expect a test of primary support at $0.96. Failure would warn of a decline to $0.90*, but respect is just as likely and would signal a rally to $1.02.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 0.90

The US dollar continues to advance against the Japanese Yen, suggesting that the 30-year down-trend is over. Expect resistance at ¥100, with a possible correction back to ¥90, but breakout would test the 2007 high above ¥120*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120

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Government Debt and Deficits Are Not the Problem. Private Debt Is. | Michael Hudson

Professor Michael Hudson writes:

Student loan debt, now the second largest debt in the US at around $1 trillion, is the one kind of debt that has been growing since 2008. It is depriving new graduates of the ability to start families and buy new homes. This debt is partly a byproduct of cutbacks in federal and local aid to the universities, and partly of turning them into profit centers – financializing education to squeeze out an economic surplus to invest in real estate and financial holdings, to pay much higher salaries to upper management (but not to professors, who are being replaced by part-time, un-tenured help), and especially to create a thriving high-profit, zero-risk, government guaranteed loan business for banks.

This is not really “socializing” student loans. Its social effects are regressive and negative. It is a bank-friendly giveaway that is helping polarize the economy.

via Government Debt and Deficits Are Not the Problem. Private Debt Is. | Michael Hudson.

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Canada: TSX good to go

Shallow retracement of the TSX Composite below resistance is a bullish sign. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout above 12900 would confirm a primary advance. Immediate target would be 13500*, with a long-term target of the 2011 high at 14300.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12500 ) = 13500

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S&P 500 tests 2007 high

Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken through its previous high at 14,000. Long-term (13-week) Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates strong buying pressure.
S&P 500 Index
Bellwether transport stock Fedex breakout above $100 signals rising economic activity.
Fedex

The S&P 500 is testing its 2007 high at 1550. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Reversal below the latest trendline is unlikely at present but would warn of a correction. Target for the current advance is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1475 + ( 1475 – 1350 ) = 1600

VIX Volatility Index is headed for its 2005 lows at 0.10. While this coincided with the start of a ($SPX) bull market in 1995, it also occurred just before the peak in 2007; so does not offer much reassurance. Breakout above the quarterly high at 0.20 would be a warning sign.
VIX Index
The Nasdaq 100 broke resistance at 2800 despite bearish divergences on both 13-week Twiggs Momentum and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below the latest rising trendline would warn of a correction, while follow-through above 2900 would signal an advance to 3300*. Only breach of primary support at 2500 would signal a reversal.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

Rising debt indicates consumers are once again spending. While there are still structural flaws in the US economy, the market is gaining momentum and the current advance shows no signs of ending.

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Investing: Growth and the markets | The Economist

Buttonwood of The Economist quotes Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School:

….take the records of 83 countries from 1972 to 2009 (the most comprehensive set available) and rank them by GDP growth over the previous five years. Investing each year in the countries with the highest economic growth over the preceding five years earned an annual return of 18.4%, but investing in the lowest-growth countries returned 25.1%.

Read more at Investing: Growth and the markets | The Economist.

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