Category: UK & Europe

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European indices warn of another down-swing

The German DAX Index broke support at 5500 to warn of a down-swing to 4500*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates strong selling pressure.

German DAX index

* Target calculation: 5500 – ( 6500 – 5500 ) = 4500

In France, the CAC-40 Index reversed below support at 3000, led by a sell-off in French banks. Expect support at the 2009 low of 2500, though the calculated target is even lower. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow again signals strong selling pressure.

France CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3700 – 3000 ) = 2300

The FTSE 100 is consolidating above 5000, but is likely to be dragged lower if major European trading partners fall. Breach of support would offer a target of 4400*.

UK FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5600 – 5000 ) = 4400

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Woes at French Banks Signal a Broader Crisis – WSJ.com

Greece will run out of money within weeks if it can’t end a standoff with the International Monetary Fund and the EU. In a last-ditch effort to overcome the impasse with its international lenders, Greece’s government said Sunday that it would impose a new property tax to cover a €2 billion shortfall in budget targets this year. Investors worry that if the dispute goes unresolved, Greece could suffer a messy default, with untold consequences for Europe’s banks.

French banks’ overall exposure to Greece is about €65 billion, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

via Woes at French Banks Signal a Broader Crisis – WSJ.com.

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Good time to buy gold

With Europe awash with stories of the imminent default of Greece, and German banks told to prepare for a 50% haircut on Greek bonds [Bloomberg], this would be a good time to buy gold. Any rupture in current bailout arrangements would cause a flight to safety, driving Treasury yields even lower and gold even higher. Breakout above $1900 would confirm a fresh advance, with a target of 2100*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 2100

Added in response to question: Reversal below 1800 is unlikely but would warn that the ascending triangle formation has failed.

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Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown – Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate

Europe doesn’t have months, much less years, to resolve its crisis. At this point, it has only days to avert the worst. It is critical that leaders distinguish what must be done now from what can be left for later.

The first urgent task is for Europe to bulletproof its banks. Doubts about their stability are at the center of the storm. It is no coincidence that bank stocks were hit hardest in the recent financial crash.

via Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown – Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate.

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European stocks threaten breakout

DJ Europe Index ($E1DOW) reversed below 230, threatening another down-swing — with a target of 200. Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 225 would confirm the bear signal.

DJ Europe

* Target calculation: 230 – ( 270 – 230 ) = 190

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ECB’s Top German Representative Resigns – WSJ.com

Germany’s top representative on the European Central Bank resigned in an apparent protest of the bank’s recent interventions in euro-zone debt markets…….Jürgen Stark is stepping down “for personal reasons,” the ECB said in a statement…… Mr. Stark, one of the ECB’s most outspoken anti-inflation “hawks,” had opposed the ECB’s decision last month to reactivate its government bond purchase program….

via ECB’s Top German Representative Resigns – WSJ.com.

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GBP tests support

The Pound is testing support at $1.60/$1.59 against the greenback, dragged down by rising calls for another round of quantitative easing to assist the flagging UK economy. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with a target of $1.53*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.60 – ( 1.67 – 1.60 ) = 1.53

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Swiss Franc weakens on SNB action

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) threw a similar lifeline to Swiss exporters and tourist industry, pledging to support their currency at 1.20 Swiss Francs against the euro with “utmost determination” and to “buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities” to achieve this. [Bloomberg]

The euro jumped from 1.10 to 1.20 CHF on Tuesday and has been trading in a narrow range between 1.20 and 1.21 since then. Further speculation is inadvisable unless you have deep enough pockets to take on the SNB.

EURCHF

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Euro tests support

Germany’s high court threw Chancellor Merkel a lifeline, ruling that bailouts of struggling euro-countries are legal in terms of the German constitution. But they also created an obstacle to further assistance, requiring that parliament vote on any future bailout decisions. [WSJ]

The euro continues to test support at $1.40 against the greenback. Failure would signal a primary down-trend with a target of $1.30*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30

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