Category: UK & Europe

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The Next Selling Wave Is About to Begin | Toby Connor | Safehaven.com

As the stock market moves down into the next daily cycle low and the selling pressure intensifies, this should drive the dollar index much higher. It remains to be seen if gold can reverse this pattern of weakness in the face of dollar strength, especially since the dollar will almost certainly be rallying violently during the intense selling pressure that is coming in the stock market.

via The Next Selling Wave Is About to Begin | Toby Connor | Safehaven.com.

 

When the dollar strengthens, gold normally falls. Except in times of high uncertainty (like the present), when demand for gold as a safe haven overcomes downward pressure from a stronger dollar. Buying gold at current prices is a bet that either Greece will default — a pretty safe bet — or that the Fed is again forced to use its printing press (not quite as certain).

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Of course it’s right to ringfence rogue universals – Martin Wolf

Thank you, UBS. As a member of the UK’s Independent Commission on Banking, under Sir John Vickers, I could not have asked for a better illustration of the unregulatable risks to which investment banks are exposed than Thursday’s announcement of a loss of $2bn in “unauthorised trading”. No sane country can allow taxpayers to stand behind such risks.

That is the kernel of the case for ringfencing of retail banking from investment banking, recommended in the ICB’s final report.

via Of course it’s right to ringfence rogue universals – FT.com.

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IMF Urges European Banks to Raise Capital – WSJ.com

European banks face about €300 billion about $409 billion in potential losses from the euro-zone debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday as it urged banks to raise capital to protect the global economy from more turmoil.The fund said fiscal strains emanating from weaker euro zone members have had a direct impact of about €200 billion on banks in the European Union since its debt crisis started last year. In addition to the holdings of government debt, lower bank asset prices raised credit risks between banks for an overall hit of €300 billion.

via IMF Urges European Banks to Raise Capital – WSJ.com.

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How to Prevent a Depression – Nouriel Roubini – Project Syndicate

The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown. Wrong-headed policies during the first Great Depression led to trade and currency wars, disorderly debt defaults, deflation, rising income and wealth inequality, poverty, desperation, and social and political instability that eventually led to the rise of authoritarian regimes and World War II. The best way to avoid the risk of repeating such a sequence is bold and aggressive global policy action now.

via How to Prevent a Depression – Nouriel Roubini – Project Syndicate.

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IMF Survey: Weak and Bumpy Global Recovery Ahead

The risks to the global economy are many, but three in particular demand strong action by policymakers:

• In the euro area, banks must be made stronger, not only to avoid deleveraging and maintain growth, but also, and more importantly, to reduce risks of vicious feedback loops between low growth, weak sovereigns, and weak banks. This requires additional capital buffers, from either private or public sources.

• The top priorities in the United States include devising a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan to put public debt on a sustainable path and to implement policies to sustain the recovery, including by easing the adjustment in the housing and labor markets. The new American Jobs Act would provide needed short-term support to the economy, but it must be flanked with a strong medium-term fiscal plan that raises revenues and contains the growth of entitlement spending.

• In Japan, the government should pursue more ambitious measures to deal with the very high level of public debt while attending to the immediate need for reconstruction and development in the areas hit by the earthquake and tsunami.

via IMF Survey: Weak and Bumpy Global Recovery Ahead.

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How the IMF Could Try to Bolster Economy – WSJ.com

Europe needs to create a tightly coordinated fiscal policy among nations, even though European voters are wary that would mean something akin to a United States of Europe. Ms. Lagarde, a former French finance minister who is in the honeymoon phase of her IMF presidency, has credibility in Europe. Her task: come up with a specific plan for a tighter union, which she could argue benefits ordinary Europeans.

via How the IMF Could Try to Bolster Economy – WSJ.com.

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DAX key reversal; FTSE rally fades

Germany’s DAX Index shows a strong key reversal [R] on the weekly chart. Expect a rally, but we are in a bear market and resistance at 6500 is likely to hold. Reversal below 5400 would warn of another down-swing.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5500 – ( 6500 – 5500 ) = 4500

The FTSE 100 fell at Monday’s open, but the weekly chart displays a particularly volatile consolidation edging higher. Breakout above 5400 would indicate a test of 5600/5700. Again, we are in a bear market; respect of resistance is likely and would warn of another test of 4800.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5600 – 5000 ) = 4400

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Does the Euro Have a Future? by George Soros | The New York Review of Books

The German public still thinks that it has a choice about whether to support the euro or to abandon it. That is a mistake. The euro exists and the assets and liabilities of the financial system are so intermingled on the basis of a common currency that a breakdown of the euro would cause a meltdown beyond the capacity of the authorities to contain. The longer it takes for the German public to realize this, the heavier the price they and the rest of the world will have to pay.

via Does the Euro Have a Future? by George Soros | The New York Review of Books.

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