Euro Bonds: The Pros and Cons, According to the European Commission – Real Time Brussels – WSJ

A European Commission discussion paper on euro bonds to be released on Wednesday puts forward….three possible approaches for issuing common government bonds in the euro zone.Two would carry “joint and several” guarantees, making euro zone states responsible for repaying the debts of others. Option 1 envisions all national government bond issues in the euro zone being converted to common euro bonds, while option 2 envisages a partial replacement of national bonds with euro bonds. Option 3 would be for the partial replacement of national government bonds with euro bonds carrying ”several” but not joint guarantees, making each state responsible for its own share of euro bonds. The third approach would be easier to implement, in part because it wouldn’t require changes to European Union Treaties, but would carry fewer benefits.

via Euro Bonds: The Pros and Cons, According to the European Commission – Real Time Brussels – WSJ.

Euro approaches key support

The euro is headed for a test of primary support at $1.32.  The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

EUROPA – Press Releases – New action for growth, governance and stability

Extract from Press release regarding European Commission proposal for a common euro-zone bond market and tighter budgetary controls for members:

The proposed Regulation strengthening surveillance of budgetary policies in euro area Member States would require these countries to present their draft budgets at the same time each year and give the Commission the right to assess and, if necessary, issue an opinion on them. The Commission could request that these drafts be revised, should it consider them to be seriously non-compliant with the policy obligations laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact. All of this would be done publicly to ensure full transparency. The Regulation also proposes closer monitoring and reporting requirements for euro area countries in Excessive Deficit Procedure, to apply on an ongoing basis throughout the budgetary cycle. And euro area Member States would be required to have in place independent fiscal councils and to base their budgets on independent forecasts.

The proposed Regulation strengthening economic and fiscal surveillance of euro area countries facing or threatened with serious financial instability would ensure that the surveillance of these Member States under a financial assistance programme, or facing a serious threat of financial instability, is robust, follows clear procedures and is embedded in EU law. The Commission would be able to decide whether a Member State experiencing severe difficulties with regard to its financial stability should be subject to enhanced surveillance. The Council would be able to issue a recommendation to such Member States to request financial assistance.

The Green Paper on Stability Bonds analyses the potential benefits and challenges of three approaches to the joint issuance of debt in the euro area. The paper sets out the likely effects of each of these approaches on Member States’ funding costs, European financial integration, financial market stability and the global attractiveness of EU financial markets. It also considers the risks of moral hazard posed by each approach, as well as its implications in terms of Treaty change. Stability Bonds are seen by some as a potentially highly effective long-term response to the sovereign debt crisis, while others are concerned that they would remove the market incentive for fiscal discipline and encourage moral hazard. The Commission makes clear that any move towards introducing Stability Bonds would only be feasible and desirable if there were a simultaneous strengthening of budgetary discipline. The extent of this strengthening needs to be commensurate with the ambition of the approach chosen.

via EUROPA – Press Releases – New action for growth, governance and stability.

EU Sets Out Proposal on Euro-Zone Bonds – WSJ.com

BRUSSELS—The European Commission proposed Wednesday significantly tighter controls over euro-zone members’ budgets, alongside options for a common euro-zone bond market.

….The commission said the deteriorating economic climate requires greater reform efforts from member states.

If a government doesn’t comply with the EU’s demands, they could be locked out of European Union budget funding, which can amount to billions of euros a year.

….The proposals are designed to strengthen the way the euro zone is governed and they go as far as the Commission has said it can go without changing the European Union treaty. Closer integration would set the groundwork for issuing joint bonds among the euro currency’s 17 governments.

via EU Sets Out Proposal on Euro-Zone Bonds – WSJ.com.

Europe warns of another decline

Dow Jones Europe Index is headed for a test of the band of support between 200 and 205. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a strong primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 150*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 205 – ( 260 – 205 ) = 150

Germany’s economic and political generals are fighting the wrong war – Saul Eslake

The role which the European Central Bank needs to be allowed to play in resolving the European sovereign debt crisis needn’t amount to sustained financing of government deficits. It is perhaps better conceived of as being akin to central bank intervention in the currency markets.

When, in moments of one-sided speculation, or panic, foreign exchange markets push a currency to what by any reasonable yardstick appears to be extremely over- or under-valued levels, it’s not unusual for central banks to sell or buy that currency in sufficient volume to push it back in the opposite direction. If the central bank concerned is perceived as ‘credible’, the volume of purchases or sales required to achieve its objective will often be quite small. And if its judgement as to what constitutes ‘reasonable’ is correct, it will usually end up making a profit.

via Germany’s economic and political generals are fighting the wrong war – On Line Opinion – 24/11/2011.

German Bond Auction Spurs Worries – WSJ.com

A German government debt auction drew some of the weakest demand since the introduction of the euro, signaling diminishing investor appetite for even the safest euro-zone assets amid Europe’s worsening debt crisis….The German government was able to sell only €3.644 billion $4.92 billion of the €6 billion in 10-year bunds on auction for an average yield of 1.98%. Interest rates on Germany’s 10-year bonds rose sharply after the auction to 2.09%, their highest level in three weeks, leapfrogging the yield on the U.S. 10-year note.

via German Bond Auction Spurs Worries – WSJ.com.

Fate of Euro May Hinge on Italian Savers – NYTimes.com

Compared with debt-saddled Greece, Spain and Ireland, Italy is much less reliant on foreign investors to finance its debt. And more so than in any other euro zone country, Italian citizens have been active buyers of government debt, with such bond holdings representing 10 percent of household assets. So far, the evidence suggests that Italian households are not panicking.

via Fate of Euro May Hinge on Italian Savers – NYTimes.com.

EU Banks Struggle to Attract Deposits – WSJ.com

Deposit levels at five of Spain’s top six banks declined in the third quarter, while five of Italy’s largest lenders also reported declines, according to a report by analysts at Citigroup. In some cases, individuals pulling their money out of a bank are instead buying the bank’s bonds, which have offered hefty interest rates lately. But corporate clients, who find it relatively simple to move cash from one international bank to another, appear to have been especially aggressive in scaling back their deposits at southern European banks. Spain and Italy’s largest banks each reported declines of at least 10% in the quarter that ended Sept. 30.

via EU Banks Struggle to Attract Deposits – WSJ.com.