Europe’s Debt Crisis: ECB Hints at Help Pending Euro-Zone Integration – SPIEGEL ONLINE

[ ECB chief Mario Draghi] seemed to hint at a possible way out of the downward spiral, saying that the ECB could be prepared to take additional steps to halt the crisis. First, however, Europe needed to move quickly toward greater economic integration.

“Other elements might follow,” he said, in reference to the coordinated central banks’ action taken on Wednesday. “But the sequencing matters.” He added that “a new fiscal compact would be the most important signal from euro-area governments for embarking on a path of comprehensive deepening of economic integration.”

via Europe’s Debt Crisis: ECB Hints at Help Pending Euro-Zone Integration – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

Euro Sterling rally

The euro respected primary support at $1.32. Recovery above $1.36 would signal another attempt at $1.42. But the primary trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, is downward and breakout below $1.32 would signal a decline to $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

The Pound also rallied but again 63-day Twiggs Momentum is weak. Follow-through above $1.57 would suggest another attempt at $1.615. But the primary trend remains downward and failure of primary support at $1.53 is more likely, offering a target of $1.45*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.61 – 1.53 ) = 1.45

Europe’s big banks need a bailout

David Weidner, Marketwatch: “Give me a swap line on currency and I will bet the farm….I am shocked that the market is rallying this much today on this news [European markets up about 10pc in dollar terms].”

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David Weidner interviewed by Evan Newmark of Mean Street.

Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night? | ZeroHedge

Need a reason to explain the massive central bank intervention from China, to Japan, Switzerland, the ECB, England and all the way to the US? Forbes may have one explanation: “It appears that a big European bank got close to failure last night. European banks, especially French banks, rely heavily on funding in the wholesale money markets. It appears that a major bank was having difficulty funding its immediate liquidity needs. The cavalry was called in and has come to the successful rescue.”

via Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night? | ZeroHedge.

Central Banks Take Coordinated Action – WSJ.com

WASHINGTON — The world’s major central banks launched a joint action to provide cheap, emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe and elsewhere, a sign of growing alarm among policy makers about stresses in Europe and in the global financial system. The Fed, ECB and other central banks took coordinated action to support the global financial system as Europe’s rolling debt crisis continues to trouble markets. The coordinated action doesn’t directly address Europe’s government-debt and budget woes. Instead, it is aimed at alleviating the impact of those troubles on global markets. Moreover, it raises the prospect of other steps by central bankers to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

via Central Banks Take Coordinated Action – WSJ.com.

China manufacturing exports shrink

The Harper Petersen Index shows a fall in container shipping rates in the last few months, reflecting a sharp decline in manufacturing exports.

Harper Petersen Index

Bloomberg (hat tip to macrobusiness.com.au) now reports that “the cost of hauling goods to Europe from China (its largest export market) is falling faster than rates for deliveries to the U.S. The price for shipments to Europe is down 39 percent to $511 per twenty-foot box since Aug. 31, according to figures from Clarkson Securities Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. That’s more than double the 18 percent slide in the cost to the U.S. West Coast, measured in 40-foot units.”

Quick Overview

Looks like something positive is brewing in Europe, but I don’t want to jump the gun. China looks weak, US probably through its worst, Europe still faces plenty of pain even if fiscal reform and euro-bonds introduced. Game changer would be QE/asset purchases by Fed and ECB.

ECB Expected to Unleash QE Money Printing after Launching of Euro-Bonds :: The Market Oracle

In return for surrendering fiscal policy to Brussels, – Berlin and Paris, the key paymasters of the Euro-zone, would agree to the creation of a common Eurobond that would pool the credit ratings and collateral of all participating Euro-zone countries into a single fixed income instrument. Chancellor Merkel says that German borrowing costs will jump higher because of the creation of a Eurobond, though she is prepared to consider Eurobonds, if the legal framework is in place to ensure all countries in the zone observe the rules.

…..Once fiscal integration is agreed upon, Berlin is expected to agree to the creation of Eurobonds issued by member states that could be purchased in massive quantities (monetized) by the ECB. Countries would be liable for each others’ debts, but the ECB could make much of their debt disappear with its electronic printing press. Eurobonds would either be financed with higher taxes on the working class, through austerity measures, or through the inflationary effects of the ECB’s money printing machine. With French banks alone holding more of their debts than the entire €440-billion European Financial Stabilization Fund, a default by these countries would likely bankrupt the French financial system. Thus, Paris has been pushing hard for the ECB to monetize debt on a massive scale.

via ECB Expected to Unleash QE Money Printing after Launching of Euro-Bonds :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.

The German Hour – Jean Pisani-Ferry – Project Syndicate

Germany should be bold and use its leverage to offer a new contract to its eurozone partners: mutual guarantee of part of their public debt in exchange for strict debt limits and a new legal order in which a eurozone authority can veto an enacted budget even before it is implemented. Only such boldness will deliver the certainty that markets need – and it is Germany’s responsibility to be bold.

via The German Hour – Jean Pisani-Ferry – Project Syndicate.