UK & Europe Archives - Page 63 of 88

February 29, 2012

EconoMonitor : Note from Athens: Feeling on the Ground Has Palpably Changed

Despite the clear sense of despair and anger in Greece, politicians and members of the public continue to think that the alternative—default and EZ exit—would be even worse.

……Among the increasingly popular fringe left- and right-wing parties, the only party actually advocating a EZ exit is the communist party, or KKE. The KKE will have just over 10% of the vote in the election in April according to most estimates and refuses to cooperate with any other parties in a coalition. For now, the rest of the political establishment advocates doing whatever it takes to remain in the EZ.

….. most Greeks express desperation to stay in the EZ. This is reflected in recent opinion polls: according to a poll conducted in February for Skai TV and Kathimerini, 70% of respondents said a EZ exit and return to the drachma would make Greece’s situation worse and 61% said they viewed the euro favourably.

via EconoMonitor : RGE Analysts » Note from Athens: Feeling on the Ground Has Palpably Changed.

February 29, 2012

ECB Allots €529.5 Billion in Long-Term Refinancing Operation – WSJ.com

LONDON—The European Central Bank said it handed out €529.5 billion $712.7 billion in cheap, three-year loans to 800 lenders, the central bank’s latest effort to arrest a financial crisis now entering its third year. Wednesday’s loans were on top of the €489 billion of similar loans the ECB dispensed to 523 banks in late December. The ECB’s goal is both to avoid an escalating crisis as banks struggle to pay off maturing debts and to mitigate a sharp pullback in bank lending to customers across ailing European economies……about two-thirds of the loans went to banks in three euro-zone countries — two in the “periphery,” likely Spain and Italy, and one in the “core,” likely France or Germany.

via ECB Allots €529.5 Billion in Long-Term Refinancing Operation – WSJ.com.

February 28, 2012

The World from Berlin: ‘Europe is Pouring Money Into a Bottomless Barrel’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International

In an interview with SPIEGEL published on Monday, [Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich] said: “Greece’s chances to regenerate itself and become competitive are surely greater outside the monetary union than if it remains in the euro area.” He added that he did not support a forced exit. “I’m not talking about throwing Greece out, but rather about creating incentives for an exit that they can’t pass up.” It was the first time a member of the German government called on Greece to leave the currency.

via The World from Berlin: ‘Europe is Pouring Money Into a Bottomless Barrel’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

February 27, 2012

UK & Europe: Selling pressure

The FTSE 100 is running into resistance at 6000 — note the short weekly candles and bearish divergence on (medium-term) 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Expect retracement to test the new band of support between 5600 and 5700. The primary trend, however, remains upward; so the target of 6100 is unchanged.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX has also run into medium-term selling pressure, but remains in a strong primary up-trend with a target of 7500*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5500 ) = 7500

Italy’s MIB Index is not yet in a primary up-trend, but narrow consolidation below 17000 suggests an upward breakout. Medium-term selling pressure is evident, however, even on the long-term 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, and failure of support at 16,000 would warn of another test of the primary band at 13,000 – 13,500.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 14000 ) = 20000

February 23, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Yen and Rand

The euro broke medium-term resistance at $1.32, indicating a rally to test the descending trendline at $1.38*. Momentum is rising but the primary trend remains downward.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.38

Pound Sterling broke its descending trendline, but respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. A fall below $1.565 (the last two weeks low) would warn of another test of primary support at $1.530. Recovery above $1.590 is less likely, but would indicate a rally to test $1.620.

Index

The greenback broke through resistance at ¥80 and is now retracing to test its new support level. Respect would confirm a primary up-trend, signaled by the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum (and its recovery above zero).

Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

The Aussie Dollar consolidated against the South African Rand in recent months after a long appreciation. 63-day Twiggs Momentum is declining and breakout below R8.00 would warn of a correction to the rising trendline, with a target of R7.50*. Upward breakout, however, would offer an initial target of R9.00.

Index

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

February 21, 2012

Europe Reaches a Greek Deal – WSJ.com

Greece ended months of uncertainty as it secured a new bailout and debt-restructuring agreement during a marathon negotiating session of euro-zone finance ministers, but the deal leaves unanswered questions about whether Greece will be able to meet the terms of the accord……

Officials said the meeting, which lasted nearly 13 hours, produced a plan that would reduce Greece’s debt to just over 120% of gross domestic product by 2020.

via Europe Reaches a Greek Deal – WSJ.com.

February 15, 2012

Default Therapy

Why not let an insolvent debtor default and invite capitalism to do its work?

That’s the process an Austro-Hungarian economist by the name of Joseph Schumpeter used to call “creative destruction”…and it has worked pretty well over the years, believe it or not…….

Consider the divergent fates of two countries that came face-to-face with a financial crisis in 1990. One of these countries is still merely muddling along…20 years later! The other country is flourishing.

That’s because one of these countries, Japan, responded to its crisis by coddling its crippled corporations and by throwing monumental sums of taxpayer dollars at failing financial institutions. The other country, Brazil, responded to its crisis with relatively savage measures. It defaulted on its debts, devalued its currency (more than once) and did not stand in the way of corporate failure. Brazil’s responses were far from perfect, but they were much less imperfect than were Japan’s……

Too bad for Japan. Its economy has muddled along for two decades, while its stock market has produced a loss of 2% per year across that entire 20-year timeframe. By contrast, the Brazilian economy and stock market have both boomed during the last two decades, despite some very serious bumps along the way.

via Default Therapy.

February 15, 2012

Greek death spiral accelerates – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: This is what a death spiral looks like. It is what can happen if you join a fixed exchange system, then take out very large debts in what amounts to a foreign currency, and then have simultaneous monetary and fiscal contraction imposed upon you.

Germany discovered this on the Gold Standard when it racked up external debt from 1925 to 1929 (owed to American bankers) in much the same way as Greece has done.

When the music stopped – ie. when the Fed raised rates from 1928 onwards – Germany blew apart in much the same way as Greece is blowing apart. This is not a cultural or anthropological issue. It is the mechanical consequence of capital flows into a country that cannot handle it, as Germany could not handle it in the late 1920s.

via Greek death spiral accelerates – Telegraph Blogs.

February 15, 2012

How to Fix Europe’s Banks – WSJ.com

Francesco Guerrera: A simple solution is staring the likes of Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas SA and Banco Santander in the face: large, decisive, increases in capital through equity sales that would allay investor concerns and boost balance sheets. With the year-end results almost all out of the way, banks should start raising capital soon. The experience of the U.S. financial crisis shows that in stressed times capital infusions can cure or mask many ills and buy valuable time to restructure businesses.

via How to Fix Europe’s Banks – WSJ.com.

February 13, 2012

UK and Europe

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test the new support level at 5750. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 5600 would warn of a bull trap, while respect would confirm the primary up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5750 + ( 5750 – 5100 ) = 6400

Dow Jones Europe Index is consolidating below resistance at 260. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Breakout above 260 would signal a primary advance to 310*, while reversal below 240 and the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at 210.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310