Europe & Asia: Widespread selling pressure

Germany’s DAX respected support at 8000 on its recent retracement. Follow-through above 8500 would confirm a fresh primary advance. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of strong selling pressure. Retreat below 8000 would test the rising trendline around 7500.
DAX Index

The FTSE 100 also encountered resistance at its 2007 high, bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 6000. Recovery above 6750 is unlikely but would signal a fresh primary advance.

DJ Europe Index

The Nikkei 225 found support at 12500. Reversal below this level would warn of a decline to 10000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. I was interested to read that George Soros was buying Japanese stocks. To me it seems premature.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of medium-term support at 19000. Breach would test primary support at 18000. Respect would indicate another advance, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 18000 would confirm.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index reversed below its new support level at 3300, warning of a bull trap. Follow-through below last week’s low would indicate a test of the long-term trendline around 3000.

Straits Times Index

The Shanghai Composite Index retreated sharply last week and is headed for another test of support at 2150. Breach would signal a fall to 1950. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. A weakening Shanghai Index is bearish for Australian resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 found support at 4750, while bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. The falling Aussie Dollar is forcing a retreat of offshore investors from the market, but the eventual boost to export earnings is likely to present a buying opportunity later. Expect a weak rally followed by decline to 4500.

ASX 200 Index

Why Sweden Has Riots | Cato Institute

Johan Norberg explains why Sweden, with the lowest poverty rate (1.2%) in Europe, still experiences riots amongst disaffected, largely immigrant youth in parts of Stockholm:

……there is serious inequality in Sweden, but the divide is not so much between the rich and the poor as between those with jobs and those without. And frequently this is an ethnic divide. As the author Fredrik Segerfeldt points out in a new study, Sweden has the largest employment gap between natives and foreign-born of all the rich countries where data is available. Only 6.4 per cent of native Swedes are unemployed, but almost 16 per cent of the immigrants are…….. In Husby, where the riots started, 38 per cent of those under 26 neither study nor work.

So what’s to blame? The aspect of the Swedish social model that the government has not dared to touch: strong employment protection. By law, the last person to be hired must be the first person to be sacked. And if you employ someone longer than six months, the contract is automatically made permanent. A system intended to protect the workers has condemned the young to a succession of short-term contracts. Sweden’s high de facto minimum wage — around 70 per cent of the average wage — renders unemployed those whose skills are worth less than that. Sweden has the fewest low-wage, entry-level jobs in Europe. Just 2.5 per cent of Swedish jobs are on this level, compared to a European average of 17 per cent.

This highlights the paradox of strong labor laws intended to protect employment. They discourage permanent employment and create a two-tier society: those with permanent jobs and “permanent” casual-workers. High minimum wages, again do not guarantee that those with low skill-levels earn a decent wage. It guarantees that they will be unemployed and dependent on social welfare. Australia should take note.
Read more at Why Sweden Has Riots | Cato Institute.

Forex: Aussie falls but Euro and Yen unfazed

After a weak rally to $0.98, the Aussie Dollar broke primary support at $0.96, signaling a strong down-trend. Long-term target for the decline is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also likely to break support at $0.96, offering a long-term target of $0.82*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.06 – 0.94 ) = 0.82

The euro, however, broke resistance at $1.30 and is headed for a test of $1.32. Breach of that level would offer a target of $1.36*. But respect of $1.32 would warn of a head and shoulders reversal — completed if support at $1.27 is broken.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

The greenback reversed sharply against the Yen in the last week, falling from ¥104 to ¥99. But the scale of the reversal is placed in its proper perspective on a monthly chart. The primary up-trend is unfazed, and recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥110*. The 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 – 99 ) = 109; (b) 100 + ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

The U.S. Health Care System Doesn’t Need Price Controls. It Needs Price Signals | Reason.com

Peter Suderman discusses two articles which attack the high cost of health care in the USA:

Both pieces offer essentially the same thesis: The U.S. spends too much on health care because the prices Americans pay for health care services are too high. And both implicitly nod toward more aggressive regulation of medical prices as a solution.

…..most Americans don’t actually know much of anything at all about the prices they pay for health services. That’s because Americans don’t pay those prices themselves. Instead, they pay subsidized premiums for insurance provided through their employers, or they pay taxes and get Medicare or Medicaid……

What that means is that, in an important sense, the “prices” for health care services in America are not really prices at all. A better way to label them might be reimbursements—planned by Medicare bureaucrats and powerful physician advisory groups, negotiated by insurers who keep a watchful eye on the prices that Medicare charges, and only very occasionally paid by individuals, few of whom are shopping based on price and service quality…..

This is the real problem with health care pricing in the U.S.: not the lack of sufficiently aggressive price controls, but the lack of meaningful price signals.

The US spends about two-and-a-half times the OECD average for healthcare, while life expectancy at 79.7 years is lower than the OECD average of 79.8 years, according to PBS News Hour.

The Lombardy region of Italy offers the best health care solution I have come across, using price signals to control cost and quality of service in both state and private medical facilities.

Margherita Stancati at WSJ online writes:

Like other European countries, Italy offers universal health-care coverage backed by the state. Italians can go to a public hospital, for example, without involving an insurance company. The patients are charged a small co-pay, but most of the bill is paid by the government. As a result, the great majority of Italians don’t bother to buy private health insurance unless they want to seek treatment from private doctors or hospitals, which are relatively few.

Offering guaranteed reimbursements to public hospitals, though, took away the hospitals’ incentive to improve service or rein in costs. Inefficiencies were rampant as a result, and the quality of Italy’s public health care suffered for years. Months-long waiting lists became the norm for nonemergency procedures—even heart surgery—in most of the country.

Big changes came in 1997, when Italy’s national government decentralized the country’s health-care system, giving the regions control over the public money that goes to hospitals within their own borders…..

In much of the country, regions have continued to use the standards of care and reimbursement rates recommended by Rome. Some also give preferential treatment to public hospitals, making it more difficult for private hospitals to qualify for public funds.

Lombardy, by contrast, has increased its quality standards, set its own reimbursement rates and, most important, put public and private hospitals on an equal footing by making each equally eligible for public funds. If a hospital meets the quality standards and charges the accepted reimbursement rate, it qualifies. Patients are free to choose between state-run and publicly funded private hospitals at no extra cost. Their co-pay is the same in either case. As a result, public and many private hospitals in Lombardy compete directly for patients and funds.

…..Around 30% of hospital care in Lombardy is private now—more than anywhere else in Italy. And service in both the private and public sector has improved.

Read more at The U.S. Health Care System Doesn’t Need Price Controls. It Needs Price Signals. – Hit & Run : Reason.com.

Bearish signs for stocks

10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.05/2.10% with a key reversal (or outside reversal) on Friday, signaling a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. The tall shadow on Friday’s candle, however, warns of another test of the new support level before the trend gets under way. Only breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of the lower trend channel at 1600,  declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support at 1600 would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index
The VIX is rising, but only breakout above 20 would indicate something is amiss.

S&P 500 Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index ran into huge selling pressure, falling to 13400 by midday Monday. Expect a test of support at 11500, but the primary trend remains upward. Rising industrial production indicates that Abenomics is starting to take effect.

Nikkei 225 Index

The UK’s FTSE 100 also ran into selling pressure — at its 2007 high of 6750 — with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a correction to test 6000, but the primary trend remains upward.
FTSE 100 Index

Bearish divergence on the Shanghai Composite Index (21-day Twiggs Money Flow) indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of primary support at 2170. Penetration of the rising trendline would confirm. Breakout above 2460 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend, but that appears some way off.

Shanghai Composite Index

Sir Mervyn King: Public are right to be angry at banks | BBC News

From BBC News:

People have “every right to be angry” with banks for the UK’s financial crisis, the outgoing Bank of England (BoE) governor Sir Mervyn King says…..”But this crisis wasn’t caused by a few individuals, it was a crisis of the system of banking we had allowed to grow up. “It’s very important we don’t demonise the individuals but we do keep cracking on with changing the system.”

Read more at BBC News – Sir Mervyn King: Public are right to be angry at banks.

Forex: Aussie, Yen and Euro find support

The Aussie Dollar broke support at $0.96 against the greenback before retracing, the long tail indicating buying pressure. Expect a weak bear rally to test resistance at parity before another decline breaches primary support, offering a target of $0.90*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 0.90

The euro has so far respected primary support at $1.27. Breakout above resistance at $1.30 would suggest a primary up-trend; confirmed if the euro follows through above $1.32. Breach of support is unlikely, but would offer a target of $1.20/$1.22*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.27 – ( 1.32 – 1.27 ) = 1.22

The greenback retreated sharply against the yen as Japanese investors repatriate offshore bond and stock investments — see Mrs Watanabe Brings Home the Bacon. But the longer term trend is unchanged. Respect of support at ¥100 would signal a fresh primary advance. Breach of the long-term declining trendline indicates the 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

Shanghai rising but Nikkei, ASX selling pressure

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test the new support level at 8000. Respect would confirm a primary advance, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure — a fall below zero would warn of a reversal. Breach of 8000 would test the rising trendline around 7500.
DAX Index

Dow Jones Europe encountered strong resistance at 290, but remains in a primary up-trend. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn that the trend is losing momentum, while failure of support at 270 would signal a reversal.

DJ Europe Index

The Nikkei 225 ran into massive selling between 15000 and 16000. The gravestone on the monthly chart, supported by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warns of a reversal.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of long-term resistance at 21000, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would indicate another test of primary support at 18000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Shanghai Composite Index respected support at 2150 and is headed for another test of resistance at 2500. Breakout above 2500 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend. That is still some way off but would be good news for Australia’s beleaguered resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of primary support at 4900. Breach would also penetrate the rising trendline, indicating reversal to a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow has been warning of strong selling pressure. The falling Aussie Dollar is forcing a retreat of offshore investors from the market, but the boost to export earnings is likely to present a buying opportunity for Australian investors when the correction is over.

ASX 200 Index

China hints at bottom while S&P 500 reverses

10-Year Treasury yields are testing resistance at 2.05/2.10%. Breakout above 2.10% would signal a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. Only breakout above 4.00%, however, would end the 31-year secular bear-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 completed a key reversal (or outside reversal), indicating selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel at 1600.

S&P 500 Index
There is no great movement in the VIX and this so far looks like a normal retracement. A June quarter-end below 1500 looks unlikely, but would present a long-term bear signal.

S&P 500 Index

The UK’s FTSE 100 Index is headed for a test of its year 2000 high at 7000. Expect a correction or consolidation below this level. Breakout remains doubtful but would signal a long-term primary advance.
FTSE 100 Index

Penetration of its descending trendline indicates correction on the Shanghai Composite Index has ended and we can expect another test of resistance at 2500. Breakout above 2500 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend. That would be good news for Australia’s beleaguered resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

As traders we follow the trend, but in times like this it is important to remain vigilant.

Market Insight: Central bankers turn deaf ear on balance sheets – FT.com

John Plender at FT observes:

The sheer size of the move in US Treasuries is striking. From the beginning of May to the end of last week, yields on the 30-year Treasury bond rose by nearly 40 basis points while the 10-year yield rose around 30bp. That is a measure of the market’s sensitivity to assumptions about an exit from the era of central bank balance sheet expansion. It is also an indication of how far we are from a return to normality.

Read more at Market Insight: Central bankers turn deaf ear on balance sheets – FT.com.