UK & Europe Archives - Page 29 of 88

April 15, 2014

Europe hesitant

The Euro is retracing to test support at $1.37 on the monthly chart. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of medium-term weakness, and penetration of the rising trendline/support at $1.35 would warn of a bull trap. Follow-through above $1.40 is unlikely at present, but would signal an advance to $1.46*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.28 ) = 1.46

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 found support at 3100. Recovery above 3180 would signal another advance, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests weakness. Failure of 3100 would warn of a correction to test 2900/3000.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The DAX found support at 9200 and recovery above 9400 would suggest another test of 9800. Breakout above 9800 is unlikely, but would offer a target of 10600*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate medium-term selling pressure, until the descending trendline is broken. Further consolidation between 9000 and 9800 is the most likely outcome. Breach of primary support at 9000 is unlikely, but would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

DAX

DAX Volatility is rising, but continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

DAX

The Footsie similarly found support at 6500. Recovery above 6750 would signal another attempt at 6850. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero continues to indicate healthy (long-term) buying pressure. Reversal below 6400 (and the rising trendline) is unlikely, but would signal a primary reversal. Breakout above 6850 is also unlikely at this stage, so again further consolidation is the most likely outcome.

FTSE 100

April 9, 2014

Are we in a bull market?

A simple reflection of the weekly trend on major markets using Ichimoku Cloud. Candles above the cloud indicate an up-trend, below the cloud indicates a down-trend, while in the cloud reflects uncertainty. From West to East:
S&P 500
S&P 500
Footsie
FTSE 100
DAX
DAX
ASX 200
ASX 200
Nikkei 225 is testing primary support at 14000 and looks a bit weaker

While China is holding above primary support at 1950/2000 but shows no clear trend
Shanghai Composite

Overall, there is a strong case for a bull market.

April 7, 2014

Europe rebounds

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke through resistance at 3180, signaling an advance to 3350*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 3150 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 2950 ) = 3350

DAX breakout above 9800 would signal an advance to 10600* — though there is bound to be some resistance at 10000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would suggest that medium-term selling pressure is easing. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

DAX Volatility at 15 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

DAX

The Footsie is testing medium-term resistance at 6700. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates healthy (long-term) buying pressure. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would test primary support at 6400. Breakout above 6850 is not yet likely, but would offer a target of 7200*.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

March 31, 2014

DAX bounces back

The DAX rallied strongly off primary support at 9000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would suggest that medium-term selling pressure is easing. Breakout above 9800 would signal an advance to 10600. Breach of primary support is unlikely at present.

DAX

DAX Volatility retreated below 20, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

DAX

March 27, 2014

Vladimir Putin’s irrational behavior: Why the Russian president wins if we think he is crazy.

Scott Radnitz suggests that Vladimir Putin is not crazy — just deliberately acting that way.

….consider strategic theorist Thomas Schelling’s concept of the “rationality of irrationality.” This can be illustrated through the game of chicken, in which two drivers are heading for each other at full speed, and the first to swerve is the chicken. A driver who appears crazy enough to prefer dying over chickening out will always have the advantage. It is therefore rational for a player to convince his opponent that he is actually irrational.

March 27, 2014

Andreas Dombret: What is going on in Europe? The view from within

From a speech by Dr Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the New York Stock Exchange, New York, 26 March 2014:

How do we get to the end of the tunnel?

At the European level, the most important project is the banking union. The banking union is most certainly the biggest step since the introduction of the euro. And it is the most logical step to take. A single currency requires integrated financial markets and this includes the supervision of banks.

Consequently, one of the pillars the banking union rests upon is a Single Supervisory Mechanism – that is European bank supervision for the largest banks. Centralising supervisory powers in such a way can foster a comprehensive and unbiased view upon banks. It also enables policy action that is not held hostage by national interests. Thus, it will contribute to more effective supervision and better cross-border cooperation and coordination.

March 25, 2014

Europe under pressure

Bearish (Twiggs Momentum) divergence on Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 suggests that a top is forming. Breach of support at 2950 or reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 3100, however, would suggest another advance and follow-through above 3180 would confirm.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 2950 ) = 3350

Germany’s DAX respected primary support at 9000, but may be headed for a second test. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a primary down-trend.

DAX

A DAX Volatility rise above 20 would signal moderate risk.

DAX

The Footsie is at short-term support at 6500. Failure is likely, and would test the primary level at 6400. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

March 23, 2014

George F. Kennan’s Prediction On NATO Expansion Was Right

Interesting argument against further expansion of NATO on Moon of Alabama:

George Kennan was the U.S. diplomat and Russia specialist who developed the cold war strategy of containment of the Soviet Union, though he later criticized its militaristic implementation. In 1998, when the Senate voted to extend NATO to include Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, Kennan was asked to comment. He responded:

“I think it is the beginning of a new cold war,” said Mr. Kennan from his Princeton home. “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever.”

…..”It shows so little understanding of Russian history and Soviet history. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are — but this is just wrong.”

Read a full report of the 1998 interview with George Kennan at NY Times: Foreign Affairs | Thomas L Friedman.

March 17, 2014

Europe: Tensions rising

Moscow’s MICEX index plunged over the last two weeks as tensions rise over the fate of Crimea and the Ukraine.

MICEX

Countries neighboring Ukraine, such as Poland, have also suffered from increased uncertainty. The Warsaw WIG index is testing primary support at 50,000. Follow-through below 49,500 would signal a primary down-trend.

Warsaw WIG

Germany’s DAX is also testing primary support, at 9000. Failure would signal a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure.

DAX

Rising DAX Volatility, above 20, reflects moderate risk.

DAX

The Footsie is headed for another test of primary support (6400) after breaking 6700. Breach would signal a down-trend, but respect of support remains as likely.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

A monthly chart shows the Euro testing its long-term descending trendline at $1.39. Follow-through above $1.39 seems incongruous at present, but would signal an advance to $1.44*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of medium-term weakness, however, and reversal below $1.37 would indicate another correction.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.36 + ( 1.36 – 1.28 ) = 1.44

March 11, 2014

Euro strong but European stocks retreat

The Euro broke through resistance at $1.38, signaling an advance to $1.43*. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of medium-term weakness, however, and reversal below $1.38 would suggest another correction.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.33 ) = 1.43

Germany’s DAX retreated below 9500 to warn of another correction. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of primary support at 9000 — and the rising trendline — would confirm a healthy up-trend. Breach of support is unlikely, but would signal reversal to a down-trend.

DAX

DAX Volatility at 20 reflects moderate risk.

DAX

The Footsie retreated to support at 6690/6700 on the daily chart. Breach would indicate another test of primary support at 6400. The primary trend is upward and a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would reflect medium-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200