Maajid Nawaz used to be a recruiter for an extreme Islamist group in the United Kingdom. NPR’s Scott Simon speaks with Nawaz about how the recruiting process works, and how it can be thwarted.
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From Ivan Mikloš (former Minister of Finance and deputy Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic):
…Twenty-five years ago Slovakia produced antiquated Soviet tanks and another heavy military equipment but not one car. Today we are the number one producer of cars in the whole world, per capita. The most important reason for that success is reforms. Let me illustrate this by comparing convergence success of the Visegrad countries from 2004 until 2008. Over those four years, GDP per capita in PPP in comparison with the EU average improved in Hungary by 1%, Czech Republic by 3%, Poland by 5% and Slovakia by 16%. These were the first four years of EU membership for all of these countries, therefore the big difference among their convergence progress has to have had different reasons. This reason is reforms.
Slovakia during 2003 prepared, and from the beginning of 2004 implemented, a very bold and complex package of deep structural reforms. In 2004 Slovakia was named the most reformist country globally by the World Bank. I am not writing this in order to praise my country or myself. I am writing this because of two main reasons. Firstly, it shows that reforms work. It shows that if country is able to implement a deep and comprehensive package of reforms it will bring relatively quick results. Secondly, I think that our experience shows Ukraine now has a real chance to achieve similar success and progress if necessary reforms are implemented.
Read more at VoxUkraine.
Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania plan to form a common brigade:
Agreement on a joint Ukraine-Poland-Lithuania military brigade signed in Warsaw – v @DefenceU https://t.co/12beNEuXrU pic.twitter.com/20f1x2z800
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) September 19, 2014
Ben Judah, author of Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In And Out Of Love With Vladimir Putin observes:
“This emerging military alliance between Ukraine and Poland/Lithuania is a sign that the US/EU ability to control it allies decreasing fast.”
Lack of leadership from their Western allies is forcing Eastern NATO states to form their own alliances, which could drag NATO into a conflict with Russia. Garry Kasparov in an interview with Maria Bartiromo sums up the situation:
“If you try to lead from behind no one will follow you….Obama shows unwillingness to engage the challenges that are there.”
Click on image to play video
Obama is no Ronald Reagan and his reluctance to confront Putin is encouraging further risk-taking. As Petro Poroshenko told the House:
We appreciate the blankets and night-vision goggles that you sent us….but we cannot fight a war with blankets.”
The ceasefire in the East is tenuous and likely to collapse at any time.
Picture and video from artillery fire tonight in #Mariupol http://t.co/MZ1NMmSibR @InfoResist |EMPR #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/DyPONpCb5N
— Euromaidan PR (@EuromaidanPR) September 19, 2014
If the ceasefire does collapse, Putin will continue to escalate, destroying Obama’s and NATO credibility with their allies in the East. Sanctions have not worked as a deterrent. Brent crude is falling
But the impact on Russia is cushioned by the falling Rouble.
In the long-term this will cause inflation. But the immediate deterrent effect is negligible.
Scots voted “No” to independence, with a clear 55% to 45% majority. Alex Salmond has announced he will resign as First Minister and SNP leader, with the words: “For me as leader my time is nearly over, but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die.” Like Bruce’s spider of legend, I doubt he will give up after failing at the first attempt.
Weekly highlights:
Dow Jones Europe Index is retracing after a weak rally that reached 335. Failure of support at 320 would signal a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 315 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 320 – ( 340 – 320 ) = 300
Dow Jones Asia Index is testing primary support at 3200 despite bullishness on the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a test of 3100. Breach of 3200 would signal a primary down-trend, while follow-through below 3100 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2800 ) = 3400
The S&P 500 recovered above 2000 to signal a fresh advance. Follow-through above 2010 confirms a target of 2100*. Reversal below 1980 is unlikely. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, typical of a bull market.
The ASX 200 correction found support at 5300/5350. But 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, after a long-term bearish divergence, warns of further weakness. Breach of 5300 would indicate a test of 5000. Recovery above 5550 is unlikely, but would suggest a fresh advance.
* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5350 ) = 5950
From Chris at Defence with a C:
Russia has spent the last decade talking about programs to upgrade its armed forces and spend more money on things like training, logistics and maintenance. The fruits of this investment, or even just the investment itself, appear to be taking a very long time to actually materialise.
This is not to say that NATO shouldn’t sleep with one eye open, or that NATO should stop investing in its collective defence. Vigilance is the first stage of preparedness after all. But to say that Russia is an imminent threat to NATO is over egging the pudding I feel….
Read more at Defence With A "C": The Russian Bear Cometh!.
Germany’s DAX is retracing in a flag pattern after several weeks of healthy advance. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Continuation is likely and breach of resistance at 9800 would indicate another test of 10000. Reversal below 9300 is unlikely.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 retreated from its recent high of 3300. Respect of 3200, however, would suggest an advance to 3600*; confirmed if the index breaks above 3300. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate medium-term buying pressure, while reversal below zero would be bearish.
Long tails on the Footsie indicate support at 6800. A “no” vote in the Scottish independence referendum may precipitate another test of long-term resistance 6900, while a “yes” outcome would most likely cause a correction. But any losses are likely to be short-lived as any negotiations settle into a long, drawn-out process.
* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000
Weekly highlights:
The tenuous ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine appears to be holding, but Europe faces another challenge this week, with a Scottish referendum on independence. Predictions of financial mayhem in the event of a “Yes” vote are, I feel, exaggerated in an attempt to influence the outcome. The official position of the UK government is:
“If a majority of those who vote want Scotland to be independent then Scotland would become an independent country after a process of negotiations.”
The “process of negotiations” is likely to be comprehensive and would resolve most outstanding uncertainties in an orderly fashion. There has been much debate over economic issues, but it is no coincidence that the referendum is being held in the same year as the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, when Scots under Robert the Bruce defeated an English army led by Edward II to regain their independence.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 remains hesitant, retreating from resistance at 3300. Consolidation above 3200 would be a bullish sign, while breach of 3100 would threaten primary support at 3000. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but reversal below zero would warn of a down-trend.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600
The S&P 500 is edging lower and follow-through below 1980 would indicate another correction. Respect of support at 1950, however, would suggest that the up-trend is intact. Sideways movement on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, reflects further consolidation.
* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 is typical of a bull market.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index breakout above 2250 signals a primary up-trend. The monthly chart, however, reflects further resistance at 2450/2500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates accelerating buying pressure. Reversal below 2250 is most unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation between 2000 and 2250.
* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500
The ASX 200 broke support at 5540/5560, warning of a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of support at 5440/5460 would indicate that the primary up-trend is intact, while a fall below 5360 would warn of a down-trend.
* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850
Germany’s DAX found resistance at 9700/9800. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates short-term buying pressure, but the long-term signal remains bearish. Reversal below 9300 would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing resistance at the recent high of 3300. But declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow again warns of long-term selling pressure. Breakout above 3300 is unlikely but would suggest another advance, while reversal below 3200 — or Twiggs Money Flow below zero — would warn of another correction.
The Footsie appears unfazed by threats of Scottish independence, testing long-term resistance at 6850/6900. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate healthy buying pressure, but there is a major psychological barrier at the 1999 high of 6900/7000. Narrow consolidation below this level would be a bullish sign, while a correction to test primary support at 6500 would suggest further hesitancy.
* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000
Dollar strength is affecting not only gold and commodities, but even the strongest of the currency crosses.
The Aussie Dollar broke support at $0.92 against the greenback, warning of a correction. Expect support at $0.89. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero, however, suggests a primary down-trend — confirmed if primary support at $0.87 is penetrated. Recovery above $0.925 is unlikely, but would indicate a false break.
The greenback similarly broke through resistance at ¥105.50 against the Japanese Yen. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend. Reversal below ¥105 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of ¥104.
* Target calculation: 105.5 + ( 105.5 – 101 ) = 110
The Euro is already in a primary down-trend against the Dollar. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, confirms a strong down-trend. Expect support at $1.2750/$1.2800, but a rally is unlikely to break the descending trendline and resistance at $1.31.
* Target calculation: 1.35 – ( 1.40 – 1.35 ) = 1.30