UK & Europe Archives - Page 19 of 89

November 20, 2014

ASX under pressure

The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 2050, the upper bound of the broadening wedge. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 2250*. Reversal below 2000 is less likely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1850 ) = 2250

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing resistance at 3140. Breakout would indicate an advance to 3300. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero suggests indecision. Respect of 3140 would test primary support at 3000.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The Shanghai Composite Index retraced to test support at 2440, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below the rising trendline at 2400 would warn of a correction, while respect would suggest trend strength.

Shanghai Composite

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is weaker. Reversal below 23000 would warn of a test of primary support at 21200/21500. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) reversal below zero would also be a strong bear signal.

HSI

The ASX 200 is undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate reasonable trend strength, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure. With both Energy and Metals & Mining sectors under pressure, a test of primary support at 5120/5150 is likely.

ASX 200

The Aussie Dollar is also falling, having reversed below primary support at $0.8650 to signal a decline to $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

November 17, 2014

Russian policy follows “organized unpredictability”

From Der Spiegel:

….Russian policy, says [German diplomat Gernot Erler], is currently following the “principle of organized unpredictability.

“Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who sought to establish a “positive agenda” with Moscow when he took office, is particularly frustrated. In recent weeks, Steinmeier has complained several times of significant breaches of trust perpetrated by the Russians and says he doesn’t foresee relations with Moscow normalizing any time soon. Merkel is of the same opinion….

One official at Merkel’s Chancellery says that in some ways the situation is even more difficult than it was during the latter phases of the Soviet Union. Back then, the official says, Moscow at least adhered to agreements.

November 16, 2014

A quiet week in the markets

US stocks continue their bull-trend
European stocks strengthen
China likewise
ASX retraces to test support

The S&P 500 is testing the upper border of a broadening wedge formation. Retracement that respects support at 2000 would enhance the bull signal and offer a target of 2280*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buyers are in control. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2040 + ( 2040 – 1820 ) = 2280

Dow Jones Industrial Average has already broken above a similar broadening wedge formation, offering a long-term target of 19000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 16000 ) = 19000

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9400/9500, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak. Reversal of TMF below zero would warn of another correction. Reversal below 9000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Follow-through above 9500 is less likely, but would suggest another test of 10000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie proved more robust, breaking resistance, at 6500/6560 to signal a test of 6900. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow is rising strongly, signaling buyers are in control.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling an advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below its rising trendline, however, would warn of (medium-term) selling pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 retraced to test support at 5440/5450. Respect would signal another test of the August high at 5650/5660. Failure of support would indicate a test of 5250/5300 and a weaker up-trend. Reversal below 5250 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal long-term buying pressure.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

November 13, 2014

Henry Kissinger Looks Back on the Cold War

Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of State joins CFR President Richard Haass to discuss the Cold War. Kissinger reflects on the events, personalities, and thinking that characterized the United States and Soviet Union’s leadership.

November 8, 2014

S&P 500 bullish but Europe and China encounter resistance

Retracement of the S&P 500 respected its new support level at 2000, confirming a primary advance with a target of 2150*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the declining trendline indicates buyers are back in control. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1850 ) = 2150

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX found resistance at 9400 and retracement to test support at 9000 is likely. Failure of the former primary support level at 8900/9000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also indicate that sellers dominate.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie also encountered resistance, at 6500/6560. Respect of this level would warn of a primary down-trend, but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2013 high of 2440. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of (medium-term) resistance.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also found resistance, at 24000. Reversal below 23000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Hang Seng Index

The ASX 200, influenced by both the US and China, is testing resistance at 5550. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of 5650/5660. Reversal below 5380/5400 is less likely, but would warn that sellers have resumed control. I have lowered the target to 6000* because of constant back-filling in recent months.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

November 6, 2014

The Menace of Unreality: Combatting Russian Disinformation in the 21st Century

Hosted in cooperation with the Atlantic Council and the US Department of State, this panel discussion examined the extent of Russia’s disinformation campaign and its impact on Ukraine and Europe. In particular it looked at why this effort has been a success, how it is undermining European democracy and what possible solutions may exist. Speakers included: Geoffrey Pyatt, US Ambassador to Ukraine; Oleksander Scherba, Ambassador at Large, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine; Michael Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, The Interpreter and Peter Pomerantsev, Journalist and Documentary Producer. LI’s Anne Applebaum served as moderator. #RussiaVsReality

This is Vladimir Putin’s response to the wave of democracy movements that spread through the Arab world and Eastern Europe. Totalitarian states are particularly vulnerable to these movements. Their response is to attack the vector on which the “virus” is borne — mainstream and social media — in order to destroy its effectiveness.

November 4, 2014

DAX and Footsie weakness

Having signaled a primary down-trend with a break below 8900, Germany’s DAX recovered above 9000 to warn of a potential bear trap. After finding resistance at 9400, reversal below 8900 would confirm the down-trend, while follow-through above 9400 would suggest another test of 10000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow recovered above zero, but reversal (below) is likely and would indicate long-term selling pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie found resistance at 6550. Reversal below 6200 would confirm a primary down-trend, while follow-through above 6550 would indicate another test of 6900. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow largely above zero, however, suggests long-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6500 – ( 6900 – 6500 ) = 6100

November 3, 2014

Europe’s Energy Essentials by Ana Palacio | Project Syndicate

Ana Palacio on Europe’s energy challenge:

Energy’s emergence as a focal point for European leaders makes sense, given that it lies at the confluence of the three existential threats facing the European Union: a revisionist Russia, the declining competitiveness of European businesses, and climate change.

….The most tangible element of the EU’s emerging energy-policy framework is the internal energy market, which, once completed, will allow for the unimpeded flow of energy and related investments throughout the EU. Such an integrated energy market would lead to significant savings – estimates go as high as €40 billion ($51 billion) annually by 2030 – thereby providing a much-needed competitiveness boost.

The internal energy market would enhance Europe’s energy security as well…. individual countries are often excessively dependent on a single source and, more dangerously, a single supplier: Russia. Unrestricted energy flows within the EU would mitigate the risks of supply disruptions or shocks.

November 1, 2014

Dow and S&P 500 make new highs

US stocks have reaffirmed their bull market
European stocks are recovering
China and Japan signal up-trends
ASX is rising

The new reporting season is under way and fund managers are now looking for opportunities rather than selling off under-performers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new high, above 17300, signaling a primary advance. Reversal below 17000 and the rising trendline is most unlikely, but would warn of another correction. Target for the advance is 18000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 16000 ) = 18000

The S&P 500 similarly made a new high, signaling a fresh advance. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2150*. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1850 ) = 2150

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 14 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 continues to advance above its former primary support level at 3000. Long tails on the weekly candlesticks and recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicate buying pressure. Expect another test of 3300. Reversal below 3000 is less likely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 2700

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rallied above its recent high at 2400, confirming a primary up-trend. Target for the new advance is 2500*. and the rising trendline, warning of a correction. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure; completion of a trough high above zero would signal trend strength.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke resistance at 16300, signaling an advance with a long-term target of 18000*. Reversal below 16000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5660. Brief retracement at 5440 and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) both indicate medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 5440 is unlikely, but would indicate a test of 5250. I have lowered the target to 6000* because of constant back-filling in recent months.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

October 30, 2014

Poland Prepares for Russian Invasion | The XX Committee

A top Polish MoD official, a man of “sober and strongly pro-American views” opines about Barack Obama and his national security staff:

“…You have no idea how many promises we’ve been given, even by the President himself, but there’s never any follow-up, it’s all talk. He thinks he’s on Oprah.” When I asked if he thought America would come to Poland’s aid in a crisis, he said laconically, “I’d flip a coin.”