Germany’s DAX is testing support at 10500. Declining Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Follow-through below recent lows would warn of a correction to the rising long-term trendline.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
May Looks Beyond Brexit | Bloomberg
Robert Hutton at Bloomberg discusses Theresa May’s speech, Wednesday, at the Conservative Party’s annual conference:
….May’s comments mark a change of emphasis from the views of her predecessor. In his 11 years as Tory leader, David Cameron argued that the party needed to show that it was in touch with modern Britain by focusing on climate change and gay rights. May, by contrast, argues that the party needs to reach “ordinary working-class people.”
She’ll say she sees the role of the government as providing “what individual people, communities and markets cannot.” And she’ll argue that this means “providing security from crime, but from ill health and unemployment too. Supporting free markets, but stepping in to repair them when they aren’t working as they should. Encouraging business and supporting free trade, but not accepting one set of rules for some and another for everyone else.”
….three senior figures in May’s administration said financial-services companies would get no special favors. The extracts of May’s speech suggest she thinks Cameron was too focused on that sector. “If we act to correct unfairness and injustice and put government at the service of ordinary working people,” she’ll say, “we can build that new united Britain in which everyone plays by the same rules, and in which the powerful and the privileged no longer ignore the interests of the people.”
Source: May Looks Beyond Brexit to Portray Herself as Workers’ Tribune – Bloomberg
Europe: DAX & Footsie on the mend
Germany’s DAX is testing support at 10500. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend. This week’s long tail and a Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicate buying pressure. Follow-through above 10800 would complete a bear trap — a bullish signal with a target of 11500*.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
The FTSE 100 is also rallying, to test long-term resistance at 7000/7100. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money flow signal long-term buying pressure.
UK: Footsie rallies
The Footsie rebounded after a short retracement — a bullish sign. Expect strong resistance at 7000/7100 but completion of another trough on Twiggs Money Flow, high above zero, would signal strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5900 ) = 7100
DAX bear trap
Germany’s DAX recovered above the former support level of 10500, confirming the primary up-trend. A Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal long-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 10800 would complete a bear trap — a bullish signal with a target of 11500*.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
Niall Ferguson: The “age of debt” has come to an end
Apologies for the sub-titles but this Hard Talk interview has an important message.
UK: Footsie buying pressure
Footsie retracement continues to look promising. Twiggs Money Flow high above zero suggests long-term buying pressure. Respect of support at 6400/6500 would establish a solid base for another attempt at 7000/7100*.
* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5900 ) = 7100
Niall Ferguson: The West and the Rest – The Changing Global Balance of Power
Niall Ferguson is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University.
I would love to see Ferguson re-visit this 2011 talk every five years. One certainty about the future: it isn’t what we think it’s going to be. China’s economic rise seems to be slowing far more rapidly than was expected. Foreign reserves have declined by $800 billion in the last two years (from a peak of $4 trillion) through PBOC efforts to prevent the collapse of the Yuan in the face of rising interest rates from the Fed. China’s growth-through-infrastructure-investment model seems to have run its course and is now facing diminishing returns. Transition to a consumer society is not going to be easy. And China’s property bubble has created an extremely fragile banking system with massive bad debts.
On the plus side, Ferguson seems to have been right about rising Chinese nationalism — to deflect the population’s attention from enormous inequality in the distribution of wealth — and the CCP’s ability to maintain tight political control. Let’s hope that he is also right about China’s inability to suppress personal and political freedom in the long-term if it wants to maintain stable growth.
Bayer, Monsanto in $88b deal that could reshape the world’s food supply
From Drew Harwell:
The German chemical company Bayer said it will take over US seed giant Monsanto to become one of the world’s biggest agriculture conglomerates.
The $US66 billion ($88 billion) deal – the largest corporate mega-merger in a year full of them – could reshape the development of seeds and pesticides necessary to fuelling the planet’s food supply…..
Bayer in the US is known largely for its pharmaceuticals, with scientists who developed modern Aspirin and Alka-Seltzer. But the deal would pivot the 117,000-employee company more towards its farm-targeting business in agriculture chemicals, crop supplies and compounds that kill bugs and weeds.
Monsanto is the world’s largest supplier of genetically modified seeds, which now dominate American farming but are still a major source of environmental protests in Europe and abroad. The 20,000-employee company also develops Roundup, the weed-killing herbicide.
This is a merger of two giants in the agricultural and chemicals sectors and could lead to some interesting new developments in the future.
Source: Bayer, Monsanto in $88b deal that could reshape the world’s food supply
Europe on the mend
Germany’s DAX is holding above its new support level at 10500. Respect, with follow-through above 10800, would confirm the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
France’s CAC-40 Index is consolidating in a narrow band between 4400 and 4500. Upward breakout would suggest a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 4600, completing a broad double bottom, would confirm. Rising Twiggs Money Flow reflects buying pressure.
The Footsie retreated from resistance at 7000 but short candles and strong Twiggs Money Flow, high above zero, suggest long-term buying pressure. Expect strong resistance between 7000 and 7100. Correction to 6500 would establish a more stable base for further advances.
* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5900 ) = 7100