Countries & Regions Archives - Page 93 of 373

November 19, 2016

ASX 200 runs into a hammer

The ASX 200 is again running into resistance, signaled by a hammer after the recent rally. In terms of Dow Theory, the primary down-trend is intact but retracement that respects the former primary support level of 5200 would suggest a bear trap. Recovery above 5500 is still in doubt but would offer a bull signal.

ASX 200

ASX 300 Banks Index broke out above 8000 but this week’s short candlestick body warns of hesitancy. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Failure of support would warn of a bull trap. Respect of support is as likely, however, and would confirm a primary up-trend with a target of 8800*. Recovery of Twiggs Money Flow above zero is still tentative at this stage.

ASX 300 Banks

* Target medium-term: 8000 + ( 8000 – 7200 ) = 8800

November 19, 2016

Fedex surges

Bellwether transport stock Fedex surged to a new high this week, signaling an expected rise in economic activity in the US. A Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero also indicates strong buying pressure.

Fedex

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 19000. The doji star indicates indecision rather than a reversal. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term selling pressure but completion of a trough above zero would negate this. A fall below 18500 would warn of a correction. Follow-through above 19000 is less likely but would indicate a fresh advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target medium-term: 18000 + ( 18500 – 17000 ) = 19500

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 2200. The evening star pattern again indicates indecision rather than reversal. Breakout would complete a bullish inverted scallop pattern, which commenced in early July, signaling an advance to 2300. Declining Twiggs Money Flow remains bearish, favoring another retracement.

S&P 500 Index

* Target medium-term: 2100 + ( 2200 – 2000 ) = 2300

November 19, 2016

Shanghai rally runs out of steam

Shanghai Composite Index ran into resistance at 3200 after its recent breakout. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 3100. Respect would confirm the target of 3400* for the advance.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target medium-term: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2800 ) = 3400

November 19, 2016

DAX hesitates

Germany’s DAX is consolidating below 10800 but Twiggs Money Flow still reflects selling pressure. Breakout above 10800 would signal a primary advance with a target of 11500* but another test of 10200 looks equally likely.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500

November 19, 2016

Hollow Trees | Peggy Noonan

Great metaphor from Peggy Noonan:

You don’t know a tree is hollow until you push hard against it and it falls. The establishments of both parties did not know, a year ago, that they were hollow trees. They thought themselves strong because they always had been, and people think what has been true will continue. Then suddenly the tree is pushed and falls. To me that is the symbol, the image of 2016: the hollowed trees and how easily they fell.

Election night 2016 was not like 1980. That year produced an outcome fully within the political norms: a former two-term governor won the presidency. This year’s outcome went beyond all previous norms. Twenty-sixteen was like nothing in our lifetimes. In the future people will say, “Where were you that election night?” the way they do for other epochal moments.

Much of the mainstream, legacy media continues its self-disgrace. Having failed to kill Donald Trump’s candidacy they will now aim at his transition. Soon they will try to kill his presidency. Any journalists who are judicious toward Trump, who treat him fairly or even as a human being, are now accused of “normalizing” him. This is a manipulation: It is a way of warning your colleagues to approach the president-elect with the proper hostility or be scorned. None of this will do our country any good…..

Source: What to Tell Your Children About Trump – WSJ

November 19, 2016

Footsie under selling pressure

The Footsie (FTSE 100) is testing support at 6700. Narrow candlestick bodies for the last two weeks signal indecision, while declining Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of 6700 would warn of a correction to 6500. Respect of support is less likely but would indicate another test of 7100.

FTSE 100

November 19, 2016

India: Sensex rally overwhelmed by selling pressure

Last week’s rally exhausted itself and India’s Sensex is again testing support at 26000. Decline of Money Flow below zero reflects selling pressure. Breach of 26000 is likely and would indicate a test of 25000. Support levels are fairly weak all the way down to 23000 because of the absence of strong corrections during the March to September 2016 advance.

Sensex Index

November 17, 2016

Platinum’s Kerr Neilson slams ‘naive’ Western-centric view of the world

[Kerr Neilson, the founder of $23 billion Platinum Asset Management] said China “absolutely smashes America” when measured by physical goods, producing more motor cars, eight times more steel and 10 times more cement.

“We’re just comatose. We have no idea, particularly in the West, what’s really changing. So we have all this debate, that’s the politicians’ hard sell. You can no longer make these silly promises and say ‘we’ve got to be more equitable’,” he said.

“Sure, it’s a great idea, but in fact the place we’re competing against, these other teams … they play a very hard game. It’s no good complaining about the referee.”

Source: Platinum’s Kerr Neilson slams ‘naive’ Western-centric view of the world

November 17, 2016

Bonds fall after US Fed chair Janet Yellen comments

In her first public statements about the economy since Donald Trump’s victory in the US election last week, Ms Yellen told a congressional hearing that an increase in short-term interest rates “could well become appropriate relatively soon”, comments that sent Treasuries lower and yields on the 10-year note toward 2.25 per cent.

She said delaying a rate hike for too long could be detrimental for monetary policy and the economy….

Source: US stocks, dollar gain, bonds fall after US Fed chair Janet Yellen rate comments

November 16, 2016

Donald Trump vs. AT&T | WSJ

Other businesses watch to see if the phone giant can push its planned merger with Time Warner through a still-undefined presidency

By Thomas Gryta,John D. McKinnon and Keach Hagey:

Few companies had more at stake in the presidential election than AT&T, which made an $85 billion wager last month that would turn the giant telephone company into one of the world’s biggest media companies by swallowing Time Warner.

When the news was announced, Donald Trump told supporters in Gettysburg, Pa., he would block the deal if elected president. “It’s too much concentration of power in the hands of too few,” he said, calling the merger “an example of the power structure I am fighting.”

How the deal fares has become a test how of the Trump administration balances its deregulatory impulses with its populist aversion to large, powerful companies. Many other businesses are watching the merger as a signal of what’s to come…..

Source: Donald Trump vs. AT&T: A Signal Test of How Business Will Fare in New Washington – WSJ