Countries & Regions Archives - Page 344 of 358

September 8, 2011

Aussie Dollar weakens

The Aussie Dollar is testing support at $1.045 against the greenback; failure would warn of another down-swing to parity*. Breakout above $1.075, however, would re-visit $1.10.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.05 – ( 1.10 – 1.05 ) = 1.00

AUDUSD is strongly influenced by commodity prices and closely tracks the CRB Commodities Index. $CRB is rising and breakout above 350 would indicate a primary advance to 385* — suggesting increased support for the Aussie Dollar.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 350 + ( 350 – 315 ) = 385

September 8, 2011

GBP tests support

The Pound is testing support at $1.60/$1.59 against the greenback, dragged down by rising calls for another round of quantitative easing to assist the flagging UK economy. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with a target of $1.53*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.60 – ( 1.67 – 1.60 ) = 1.53

September 8, 2011

Swiss Franc weakens on SNB action

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) threw a similar lifeline to Swiss exporters and tourist industry, pledging to support their currency at 1.20 Swiss Francs against the euro with “utmost determination” and to “buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities” to achieve this. [Bloomberg]

The euro jumped from 1.10 to 1.20 CHF on Tuesday and has been trading in a narrow range between 1.20 and 1.21 since then. Further speculation is inadvisable unless you have deep enough pockets to take on the SNB.

EURCHF

September 8, 2011

Euro tests support

Germany’s high court threw Chancellor Merkel a lifeline, ruling that bailouts of struggling euro-countries are legal in terms of the German constitution. But they also created an obstacle to further assistance, requiring that parliament vote on any future bailout decisions. [WSJ]

The euro continues to test support at $1.40 against the greenback. Failure would signal a primary down-trend with a target of $1.30*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30

September 7, 2011

$1.2 Trillion Is Not Enough

Budget experts from both political parties warned at a Business Roundtable forum on Tuesday that the congressional Super Committee preparing for its first meeting later this week needs a long-term vision that goes beyond cutting $1.2 trillion from the federal deficit over the next decade.

“These guys have only a 10-year window. They can get $1.2 trillion fairly easily. But don’t think that’s success,” said Alice Rivlin, founding director of the Congressional Budget Office and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Success is putting in place longer-term reforms that are going to stabilize the debt… it means a lot more than $1.2 trillion, and it means ultimately what would come out of this would be more like $4 trillion or $5 trillion.”

via Super Committee Told $1.2 Trillion Is Not Enough.

September 7, 2011

Europe consolidates

Dow Jones Europe Index ($E1DOW) recovered above 230 and is expected to consolidate between 230 and 250. The bear market remains strong, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicating selling pressure. Reversal below 230 would test the 2010 low of 205, though the calculated target is lower*.

Dow Jones Europe Index $E1DOW

* Target calculation: 230 – ( 265 – 230 ) = 195

September 7, 2011

Denial is not a river in Egypt

Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied, suggesting a second higher low above primary support at 10600/10800. Expect a test of 11900/12000, but this does not mean the bear market is about to reverse. We are still in the early “denial stage” of the bear market, identified by sporadic bargain-hunting, high volatility and a general lack of direction. Declining volume indicates a lack of enthusiasm from buyers and sellers. Failure of primary support would change that, leading to a sharp fall to 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

September 6, 2011

Number for the day is 45.0%

The percentage of containers that were shipped empty from the Port of Los Angeles during the 2011 financial year was 48.42% (or 1.8 million twenty-foot units). Incoming containers received empty were a mere 3.42%. Our number for the day is the net 45.0% of incoming containers that are returned empty to their port of destination.

Shippers attempt to fill containers on their return journey, even at super-low rates, in order to offset the cost of completing the round-trip. Empty containers indicate failure to locate manufactured goods that can compete in these export markets. This affects not only the shipper, but the entire economy. You see, those containers leaving the West Coast are not really empty. They contain something far more valuable than the goods being imported. They contain manufacturing jobs — and the infrastructure, skills and know-how to support them.

In 2012, if you need an independent gauge of how successful the President’s jobs program has been, check this number.

September 6, 2011

ASX 200 threatens support

The ASX 200 is headed for another test of support at 4000. Declining volume displays no evidence of bargain-buying. Failure of support is likely and would offer a target of 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

September 6, 2011

Flight to safety

10-Year Treasury yields fell to a new low on Friday, warning of further falls in the stock market as investors seek save havens in Treasurys and precious metals.

10-Year Treasury Yields