European indices warn of another down-swing

The German DAX Index broke support at 5500 to warn of a down-swing to 4500*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates strong selling pressure.

German DAX index

* Target calculation: 5500 – ( 6500 – 5500 ) = 4500

In France, the CAC-40 Index reversed below support at 3000, led by a sell-off in French banks. Expect support at the 2009 low of 2500, though the calculated target is even lower. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow again signals strong selling pressure.

France CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3700 – 3000 ) = 2300

The FTSE 100 is consolidating above 5000, but is likely to be dragged lower if major European trading partners fall. Breach of support would offer a target of 4400*.

UK FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5600 – 5000 ) = 4400

Woes at French Banks Signal a Broader Crisis – WSJ.com

Greece will run out of money within weeks if it can’t end a standoff with the International Monetary Fund and the EU. In a last-ditch effort to overcome the impasse with its international lenders, Greece’s government said Sunday that it would impose a new property tax to cover a €2 billion shortfall in budget targets this year. Investors worry that if the dispute goes unresolved, Greece could suffer a messy default, with untold consequences for Europe’s banks.

French banks’ overall exposure to Greece is about €65 billion, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

via Woes at French Banks Signal a Broader Crisis – WSJ.com.

Good time to buy gold

With Europe awash with stories of the imminent default of Greece, and German banks told to prepare for a 50% haircut on Greek bonds [Bloomberg], this would be a good time to buy gold. Any rupture in current bailout arrangements would cause a flight to safety, driving Treasury yields even lower and gold even higher. Breakout above $1900 would confirm a fresh advance, with a target of 2100*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 2100

Added in response to question: Reversal below 1800 is unlikely but would warn that the ascending triangle formation has failed.

Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown – Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate

Europe doesn’t have months, much less years, to resolve its crisis. At this point, it has only days to avert the worst. It is critical that leaders distinguish what must be done now from what can be left for later.

The first urgent task is for Europe to bulletproof its banks. Doubts about their stability are at the center of the storm. It is no coincidence that bank stocks were hit hardest in the recent financial crash.

via Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown – Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate.

Dissecting the Lies in Obama’s $447 Billion ‘Shock-and-Awe’ Reelection Ploy | Mike Shedlock

Obama: And everything in this bill will be paid for. Everything.

Mish: That is lie number 3……. Obama’s stimulus plan is nothing but another spend now, make cuts later “sleight-of-hand” proposal.

Obama: The purpose of the American Jobs Act is simple: to put more people back to work and more money in the pockets of those who are working…….

Mish: That is lie number 4. The primary purpose of the American Jobs Act is simple: To keep one person (namely President Obama), in his job.

via Dissecting the Lies in Obama’s $447 Billion ‘Shock-and-Awe’ Reelection Ploy… | Mike Shedlock | Safehaven.com.

Dow acid-test

The Dow is headed for the band of support between 10600 and 10800 — a real acid-test. Support is likely to fail unless we see a substantial increase in volume, indicating buying support. Breach of 10600 would confirm another down-swing with a target of 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

European stocks threaten breakout

DJ Europe Index ($E1DOW) reversed below 230, threatening another down-swing — with a target of 200. Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 225 would confirm the bear signal.

DJ Europe

* Target calculation: 230 – ( 270 – 230 ) = 190

A New New Deal – Truthdig

Decades of experience, in nations across the globe, provide ample evidence that while the private sector plays an important role, it cannot by itself provide employment for all who want to work.

There is a way to do that:  The government could serve as the “employer of last resort” under a job guarantee program modeled on the WPA (the Works Progress Administration, in existence from 1935 to 1943 after being renamed the Work Projects Administration in 1939) and the CCC (Civilian Conservation Corps, 1933-1942). The program would offer a job to any American who was ready and willing to work at the federal minimum wage, plus legislated benefits. No time limits. No means testing. No minimum education or skill requirements.

……To avoid simple “make-work” employment, project proposals could be evaluated on the following criteria: (a) value to the community; (b) value to the participants; (c) likelihood of successful implementation of project; (d) contribution to preparing workers for employment outside the program.

via What the Country Needs Is a New New Deal – Truthdig.

Comment:

Infrastructure projects are one way to get the unemployed back to work and are to some extent offset by savings in unemployment benefits. I would add one qualifier to the selection of infrastructure projects: they must be selected in terms of return on investment (ROI) and not on the number of jobs created. Projects that earn a market-related return on investment—whether toll roads, high-speed rail, new port facilities or national broadband networks—will generate revenues that can be used to repay the debt incurred. At the right time, they can also be sold off to private investors in order to generate funds for further projects. Money invested in schools, libraries, universities and research should be funded out of revenue, and not from increased government borrowing, simply because they do not generate new revenues. Instead they require ongoing expenditure to staff, operate and maintain the new facilities. Read more in my discussion of Austerity and Infrastructure Spending.

What the Country Needs Is a New New Deal – Truthdig

The problem is that the president believes we can cure our jobless problem by providing the proper incentives to the business community. And here he is committing one of the few big policy blunders from Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty. Like Johnson, who focused on retraining the unemployed for jobs that did not exist, Obama has focused on incentivizing the businesses community to hire workers to produce for customers that do not exist.

……The truth is simple and contrary to these views. Business will not hire more workers until it has more sales. Consumers will not spend more until they’ve got more jobs.

via What the Country Needs Is a New New Deal – Truthdig.