Merkel Rejects Rapid Action on the Euro – NYTimes.com

PARIS — Quashing recent speculation of a softening in Germany’s hard-line stance on the euro, Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated on Thursday her firm opposition either to bonds issued jointly by the euro zone countries or to an expansion of the role of the European Central Bank as quick responses to the sovereign debt crisis.

“Nothing has changed in my position,” she said at a news conference…..[but] The German newspaper Bild reported Thursday that the Merkel government was inching towards accepting so-called eurobonds, at least in some form, even if the public stance remained against them, and that some of her party said they could be a tradeoff for treaty changes.

via Merkel Rejects Rapid Action on the Euro – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs: ~ I am getting a sense that Angela Merkel already knows the outcome. As a consummate negotiator she is using the debt crisis to force her EU colleagues to make concessions that in normal times would be politically unthinkable. Germany does not want to abandon the euro which has served them well over the last two decades. They also does not want to risk inflation — so an ECB solution is ruled out. But euro-bonds may be acceptable to the German public — provided that there are strict controls throughout the EMU to ensure fiscal discipline. That, I suspect,  is her desired outcome — she just has to make her EU counterparts feel the heat long enough that they fully appreciate the concessions she makes — and do not start back-tracking on their commitments.

Euro Bonds: The Pros and Cons, According to the European Commission – Real Time Brussels – WSJ

A European Commission discussion paper on euro bonds to be released on Wednesday puts forward….three possible approaches for issuing common government bonds in the euro zone.Two would carry “joint and several” guarantees, making euro zone states responsible for repaying the debts of others. Option 1 envisions all national government bond issues in the euro zone being converted to common euro bonds, while option 2 envisages a partial replacement of national bonds with euro bonds. Option 3 would be for the partial replacement of national government bonds with euro bonds carrying ”several” but not joint guarantees, making each state responsible for its own share of euro bonds. The third approach would be easier to implement, in part because it wouldn’t require changes to European Union Treaties, but would carry fewer benefits.

via Euro Bonds: The Pros and Cons, According to the European Commission – Real Time Brussels – WSJ.

South African rand weakens

The US dollar broke out above its descending triangle, indicating another advance, with a (conservative) medium-term target of 8.80*.

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 8.10 + ( 8.40 – 7.70 ) = 8.80

Euro approaches key support

The euro is headed for a test of primary support at $1.32.  The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

Commodities drag Aussie and Canadian dollar lower

Commodities are weakening and dragging the Aussie and Loonie lower. The Aussie dollar shows a similar iceberg pattern on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a primary down-trend. Breakout below primary support at $0.94 would offer a long-term target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also headed for a test of $0.94 against the greenback. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support (0.94) would offer a target of $0.87*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

EUROPA – Press Releases – New action for growth, governance and stability

Extract from Press release regarding European Commission proposal for a common euro-zone bond market and tighter budgetary controls for members:

The proposed Regulation strengthening surveillance of budgetary policies in euro area Member States would require these countries to present their draft budgets at the same time each year and give the Commission the right to assess and, if necessary, issue an opinion on them. The Commission could request that these drafts be revised, should it consider them to be seriously non-compliant with the policy obligations laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact. All of this would be done publicly to ensure full transparency. The Regulation also proposes closer monitoring and reporting requirements for euro area countries in Excessive Deficit Procedure, to apply on an ongoing basis throughout the budgetary cycle. And euro area Member States would be required to have in place independent fiscal councils and to base their budgets on independent forecasts.

The proposed Regulation strengthening economic and fiscal surveillance of euro area countries facing or threatened with serious financial instability would ensure that the surveillance of these Member States under a financial assistance programme, or facing a serious threat of financial instability, is robust, follows clear procedures and is embedded in EU law. The Commission would be able to decide whether a Member State experiencing severe difficulties with regard to its financial stability should be subject to enhanced surveillance. The Council would be able to issue a recommendation to such Member States to request financial assistance.

The Green Paper on Stability Bonds analyses the potential benefits and challenges of three approaches to the joint issuance of debt in the euro area. The paper sets out the likely effects of each of these approaches on Member States’ funding costs, European financial integration, financial market stability and the global attractiveness of EU financial markets. It also considers the risks of moral hazard posed by each approach, as well as its implications in terms of Treaty change. Stability Bonds are seen by some as a potentially highly effective long-term response to the sovereign debt crisis, while others are concerned that they would remove the market incentive for fiscal discipline and encourage moral hazard. The Commission makes clear that any move towards introducing Stability Bonds would only be feasible and desirable if there were a simultaneous strengthening of budgetary discipline. The extent of this strengthening needs to be commensurate with the ambition of the approach chosen.

via EUROPA – Press Releases – New action for growth, governance and stability.

EU Sets Out Proposal on Euro-Zone Bonds – WSJ.com

BRUSSELS—The European Commission proposed Wednesday significantly tighter controls over euro-zone members’ budgets, alongside options for a common euro-zone bond market.

….The commission said the deteriorating economic climate requires greater reform efforts from member states.

If a government doesn’t comply with the EU’s demands, they could be locked out of European Union budget funding, which can amount to billions of euros a year.

….The proposals are designed to strengthen the way the euro zone is governed and they go as far as the Commission has said it can go without changing the European Union treaty. Closer integration would set the groundwork for issuing joint bonds among the euro currency’s 17 governments.

via EU Sets Out Proposal on Euro-Zone Bonds – WSJ.com.

Europe warns of another decline

Dow Jones Europe Index is headed for a test of the band of support between 200 and 205. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a strong primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 150*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 205 – ( 260 – 205 ) = 150

The credit crunch is coming – macrobusiness.com.au

The SMH has [a] very important story this morning on the funding crisis that is bearing down on the major banks:

Australian banks are preparing for a potential freeze in global funding markets as Europe’s worsening stresses threaten to send the world’s financial markets into a tailspin. Renewed funding pressures for the big banks, which need to raise $16.3 billion over the next two months, are likely to make it tougher for business and some consumers to access credit.

via The credit crunch is coming – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

Bovespa disappoints

Brazil’s Bovespa index disappointed after promising a breakout above 60000. The index failed to break through resistance, instead falling through support at 58000 to warn of another test of 48000. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum and Twiggs Money Flow, however, continue to indicate that the index is forming a bottom.

Bovespa Index