Category: Countries & Regions

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Euro Sterling rally

The euro respected primary support at $1.32. Recovery above $1.36 would signal another attempt at $1.42. But the primary trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, is downward and breakout below $1.32 would signal a decline to $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

The Pound also rallied but again 63-day Twiggs Momentum is weak. Follow-through above $1.57 would suggest another attempt at $1.615. But the primary trend remains downward and failure of primary support at $1.53 is more likely, offering a target of $1.45*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.61 – 1.53 ) = 1.45

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Loonie rallies

Canada’s Loonie also responded to rising commodity prices with a rally to test resistance at $1.01. Breakout remains unlikely, but would offer a long-term target of $1.07. The probability would increase if 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovers above zero.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 1.07

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Aussie dollar strengthens

The Aussie dollar recovered above parity, breach of the declining trendline indicating that the correction is over. Breakout of the CRB Commodities Index above 325 would be a bullish sign, suggesting another test of $1.08 against the greenback. Breakout above $1.08 remains unlikely, but would offer a long-term target of 1.20*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

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Dow in strong bear rally

Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied strongly in response to news of a European rescue by major central banks. Sharp rallies are typical of shorts covering in a bear market. Strong volume indicates resistance — if you look back over the last few months (ignore triple-witching at [W]) volume above 200 million normally precedes a reversal. Expect selling pressure at 12000 to 12300, leading to a reversal. Breakout above 12300 is unlikely but would be a strong bull signal, indicating that buyers have overcome resistance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

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Europe’s big banks need a bailout

David Weidner, Marketwatch: “Give me a swap line on currency and I will bet the farm….I am shocked that the market is rallying this much today on this news [European markets up about 10pc in dollar terms].”

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David Weidner interviewed by Evan Newmark of Mean Street.

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Clinton warning over aid from China – FT.com

Hillary Clinton has urged developing nations to be “smart shoppers” when accepting foreign aid from China and other new donors, as she became the first US secretary of state in more than 50 years to visit Burma on Wednesday.

In Rangoon, Mrs Clinton warned that powerful emerging economies may be more interested in exploiting natural resources than promoting real development.

“Be wary of donors who are more interested in extracting your resources than in building your capacity,” she said. “Some funding might help fill short-term budget gaps, but we’ve seen time and again that these quick fixes won’t produce self-sustaining results.”

via Clinton warning over aid from China – FT.com.

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Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night? | ZeroHedge

Need a reason to explain the massive central bank intervention from China, to Japan, Switzerland, the ECB, England and all the way to the US? Forbes may have one explanation: “It appears that a big European bank got close to failure last night. European banks, especially French banks, rely heavily on funding in the wholesale money markets. It appears that a major bank was having difficulty funding its immediate liquidity needs. The cavalry was called in and has come to the successful rescue.”

via Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night? | ZeroHedge.

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China, in Surprising Shift, Takes Steps to Spur Bank Lending – NYTimes.com

HONG KONG — Faced with an economy that appears to be slowing faster than economists forecast even a month ago, the Chinese government on Wednesday unexpectedly reversed its yearlong move toward tighter monetary policy and took an important step to encourage banks to resume lending.

The central bank said that commercial banks would be allowed to keep a slightly lower percentage [0.5pc] of their deposits as reserves at the central bank. The change, which will take effect on Monday, means that commercial banks will have more money to lend, which could help to rekindle economic growth and a slumping real estate market.

via China, in Surprising Shift, Takes Steps to Spur Bank Lending – NYTimes.com.

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Central Banks Take Coordinated Action – WSJ.com

WASHINGTON — The world’s major central banks launched a joint action to provide cheap, emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe and elsewhere, a sign of growing alarm among policy makers about stresses in Europe and in the global financial system. The Fed, ECB and other central banks took coordinated action to support the global financial system as Europe’s rolling debt crisis continues to trouble markets. The coordinated action doesn’t directly address Europe’s government-debt and budget woes. Instead, it is aimed at alleviating the impact of those troubles on global markets. Moreover, it raises the prospect of other steps by central bankers to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

via Central Banks Take Coordinated Action – WSJ.com.

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