Category: Countries & Regions

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Did Economy Really Create 500,000 Jobs? – WSJ

A recent study by economists Katharine Abraham and John Haltiwanger at the University of Maryland, Kristin Sandusky at the Census Bureau and James Spletzer at the Labor Department found “substantial discrepancies” between employee payrolls and the household survey used to calculate Unemployment.

Some 6.4% of people who showed up as holding jobs on employee records were recorded as unemployed in the household survey. Many of them were 65 and older — which suggests they were people who considered themselves retirees even as they continued to draw some sort of paycheck. An even larger 17.6% of people who counted as employed in the household survey didn’t show up on employee records. Many of them had demographic characteristics, such as low education levels, that suggested they were working off the books.

via Did Economy Really Create 500,000 Jobs? – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

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US Labor Force Participation Rates

The Chicago Fed attributes part of the decline in US labor force participation to the baby boomer phenomenon producing a growing number of retirees, but this chart from their newsletter excludes retirees and highlights the real problem.

Female LFPR are expected to fluctuate by about 1 percent (from 1987 to 2020) while male college graduates have fallen by about 2 percent. Male high school graduates, however, have fallen by 6 percent and do not look like recovering any time soon. The primary cause is the declining manufacturing sector and loss of construction, banking and real estate jobs as a result of the housing market crash.

US Labor Force Participation Rates, Ages 25 to 54

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Peter Schiff Speaks to James Rickards, Author of Currency Wars | Peter Schiff | Safehaven.com

James Rickards: The dollar is not necessarily on the road to ruin, but that outcome does seem highly likely at the moment. There is still time to pull back from the brink, but it requires a specific set of policies: breaking up big banks, banning derivatives, raising interest rates to make the US a magnet for capital, cutting government spending, eliminating capital gains and corporate income taxes, going to a personal flat tax, and reducing regulation on job-creating businesses. However, the likelihood of these policies being put in place seems remote – so the dollar collapse scenario must be considered.

via Peter Schiff Speaks to James Rickards, Author of Currency Wars | Peter Schiff | Safehaven.com.

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Westpac Economic Update: RBA leaves rates unchanged

The Board of the Reserve Bank surprised us with a decision to hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.25%. Whilst this indicates that for the time being the Bank is assessing the risks somewhat differently to ourselves we are not inclined to change our core view that a further 50bps in easing can be expected over the course of the first half of this year.

Bill Evans
Chief Economist

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Japan & South Korea

Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index. Breakout below the rising trendline would indicate another primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 8100 is broken.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

Seoul Composite Index, on the other hand, followed through above 1950 to strengthen the primary up-trend (signal). Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its late-2011 high would confirm the signal.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + (1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

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China & Hong Kong

Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at 2300 but there is no clear breakout from the trend channel to indicate a trend change. Respect would signal a down-swing to test the lower trend channel around 2000*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2300 – 2150 ) = 2000

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index followed through above 20000 to confirm the breakout signaling the start of a new up-trend. Target for the initial advance is 22500*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500

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Singapore breakout and Indian buying pressure

BSE Sensex broke out of its trend channel last week, signaling the primary down-trend is weakening. A sharp rise in 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms buying pressure. Breakout above 18000 would indicate the start of a new up-trend, with an initial target of 20500*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15500 ) = 20500

Singapore Straits Times Index held onto its gains, closing the week above 2900. Expect a primary advance with a target of 3200*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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ASX 200 weakly bullish

The ASX 200 breched its descending trendline, indicating that the primary down-trend is over. Breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a new up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (13 week) continues to oscillate around the zero line, however, suggesting weakness.

Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

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Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 index broke resistance at 715 to signal a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Target for the initial advance is 785*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 715 + ( 715 – 645 ) = 785

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Europe: UK and Germany signal bull market

The FTSE 100 broke through resistance at 5750 to signal a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Target for the initial advance is 6300*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5100 ) = 6300

Germany’s DAX also signals a primary up-trend, with a target of 7400* for the initial advance.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 5400 ) = 7400

Italy’s MIB index lags behind, but breakout above 17000 would give a similar signal, with a target of 20000*.

FTSE MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 14000 ) = 20000

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