Countries & Regions Archives - Page 305 of 380

March 12, 2012

Europe: Signs of a revival

Europe shows signs of a revival. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing resistance at 260. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Target for the advance would be 310*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

FTSE 100 Index shows even stronger buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect the correction to respect support at 5600, followed by an advance to 6100.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5200 ) = 6200

March 12, 2012

US markets pause in anticipation of March sell-off

US markets are anticipating a quarter-end sell-off in the second half of March, driven by the tax season and Spring-cleaning of fund balance sheets. The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1370. Breakout would signal the start of another primary advance, with a target of 1450*. Reversal below 1350, however, would warn of a correction, testing support at 1300 and possibly 1250.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 reached its initial target of 2650 and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 2400.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650

Dow Jones Transport Index has retraced over several weeks to test support at 5000. Respect would signal another attempt at 5600, while failure would indicate that momentum is slowing.

Dow Jones Transport Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 6000 – 4500 ) = 5500

March 8, 2012

Forex: Euro and Yen weaken while Rand recovers

The Euro is retreating to test medium-term support at $1.30 on the weekly chart. Failure would mean a fall to primary support at $1.25/$1.26. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reinforces the primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.25 – ( 1.35 – 1.25 ) = 1.15

Pound Sterling is ranging between $1.5650 and $1.6000 against the greenback. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of the opposite.

GBPUSD

The dollar respected the new support level at 80 Japanese Yen. Breakout above ¥82 would confirm the primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥85.

USDJPY

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

The Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00 South African Rand. Failure would offer an initial target of R7.50, at the rising trendline. Momentum is falling sharply and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUDZAR

March 8, 2012

Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and commodities

The CRB Commodities Index retreated from resistance at 325. Failure of medium-term support at 310 would signal a test of primary support at 295. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

Lower commodity prices weakened the Aussie Dollar, with a fall below $1.06 warning of a correction to the long-term (green) rising trendline. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains strong, however, and recovery above $1.08 would confirm a primary up-trend.

Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie was helped by rising crude prices and recovery above $1.01 would confirm the primary advance to $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

March 7, 2012

Fed Weighs ‘Sterilized’ Bond Buying if It Acts – WSJ.com

JON HILSENRATH: Federal Reserve officials are considering a new type of bond-buying program designed to subdue worries about future inflation if they decide to take new steps to boost the economy in the months ahead. Under the new approach, the Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates. The aim of such an approach would be to relieve anxieties that money printing could fuel inflation later, a fear widely expressed by critics of the Fed’s previous efforts to aid the recovery.

Transactions like those under the third scenario are called “reverse repos.” A related program called “term deposits” also ties up short-term money held by banks. The effect of this approach is the same as Operation Twist: The Fed would hold more long-term bonds and investors and banks would get more short-term holdings in exchange.

via Fed Weighs ‘Sterilized’ Bond Buying if It Acts – WSJ.com.

March 7, 2012

ASX 200 breaks support

Australia’s ASX 200 index broke medium-term support at 4175/4180, warning of another test of primary support at 4000. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. The broad band of support between 3800 and 4000 is likely to hold, but failure would signal a decline to 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4300 – 3900 ) = 3500

March 7, 2012

US Momentum stocks to watch

I set up a stock screen for strong Momentum stocks on Incredible Charts Shared tab (#49419) to run every weekend. Here is a list of the most promising:

Arctic Cat [ACAT]

Arctic Cat [ACAT]

Cheniere Energy [LNG]
DXP Enterprises [DXPE]

DXP Enterprises [DXPE]

Healthstream [HSTM]

Healthstream [HSTM]

Lion’s Gate Entertainment [LGF]
Liz Claiborne [LIZ]
Pharmacyclics [PCYC]
Regeneron Pharm [REGN]
Select Comfort [SCSS]
Sourcefire [FIRE]
United Rentals [URI]
Vocaltec Comm [CALL]

Bear in mind that the market is starting a correction and suitable entry opportunities may only present themselves in 3 to 6 weeks, but I have added them to my watchlist and will re-visit weekly.

March 7, 2012

S&P 500 retreats

Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac predicted that we would see an adjustment in the second half of the month. It looks like it may have started a few days early.

Failure of short-term support at 1350 on the S&P 500 index indicates retracement to test medium-term support at 1300. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but this is not mirrored on the long-term (13-week) indicator. Respect of support at 1300 would confirm the primary up-trend — presenting a buying opportunity. Target for the advance is 1450*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

March 5, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX60 index is headed for another test of support at 700. Respect of support would present a buying opportunity, with confirmation from recovery above 720.

TSX60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

March 5, 2012

Trader’s Almanac’s Hirsh says “more of the same”

Jeffrey Hirsch, president of the Hirsch Organization and editor of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” sees “more of the same” for U.S. stocks markets, with solid performance for the year. But first expect an adjustment (of 5 to 15 percent) starting in the second half of March because of:

tax season;
end of quarter sell-off; and
triple witching.

That should present buying opportunities for investors.

The outlook for 2013 is not as good. The first two years of a new presidential term are when bear markets are prevalent. They try to do the hard stuff in the first two years and then prime the pump in the two years leading up to the next election.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/87510666/