The yield on 10-year US Treasury Notes has surged to test resistance at 2.40 percent. Breakout would indicate a rally to the long-term trendline at 3.00 percent on the Monthly chart. Rising treasury yields signal that investors are migrating out of bonds and into stocks, especially when the Fed is attempting to suppress long-term rates.
An Hourly chart shows the S&P 500 Index consolidating below 1400. Breakout above the narrow flag would signal an advance to 1450*. Reversal below the trend channel is unlikely but would warn of retracement to 1340.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450
The Nasdaq 100 exceeded its initial target of 2650, now revised to 2750, and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 2400.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 2750
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated Wednesday in response to a sharp fall in Shanghai. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of a correction, but as long as the lower trend channel at 20,000 is respected the primary up-trend remains intact.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500
Dow Jones Shanghai Index fell sharply to test support at 295. Failure of support would warn of a correction.
Shanghai Composite Index shows a similar fall. Follow-through below 2380 would signal a correction to primary support at 2150.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index gapped above resistance at 3000 today, confirming the primary up-trend, and is currently trading near 3020. Target for the initial advance is 3200*.
* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200
![Americas Petrogas [BOE]](https://i0.wp.com/www.incrediblecharts.com/images/2012/2012-03-12-ca-boe.png?w=1140&ssl=1)
![Americas Petrogas [BOE]](https://i0.wp.com/www.incrediblecharts.com/images/2012/2012-03-12-ca-cen.png?w=1140&ssl=1)
Carmen Reinhart marks the rise of financial repression. “Faced with a private and public domestic debt overhang of historic proportions, policy makers will be preoccupied with debt reduction, debt management, and, in general, efforts to keep debt-servicing costs manageable. In this setting, financial repression in its many guises with its dual aims of keeping interest rates low and creating or maintaining captive domestic audiences will probably find renewed favor and will likely be with us for a long time.”
The ASX 200 Index continues to signal medium-term selling pressure with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow respecting the zero line (from below). Reversal below 4180 would suggest (and below 4150 confirm) a correction to test primary support at 4000.
Canada’s TSX 60 index found support at 700. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow, holding above zero, continues to indicate buying pressure. Recovery above 720 would signal a primary advance to 790*.
* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790
Europe shows signs of a revival. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing resistance at 260. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Target for the advance would be 310*.
* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310
FTSE 100 Index shows even stronger buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect the correction to respect support at 5600, followed by an advance to 6100.
* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5200 ) = 6200
US markets are anticipating a quarter-end sell-off in the second half of March, driven by the tax season and Spring-cleaning of fund balance sheets. The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1370. Breakout would signal the start of another primary advance, with a target of 1450*. Reversal below 1350, however, would warn of a correction, testing support at 1300 and possibly 1250.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450
The Nasdaq 100 reached its initial target of 2650 and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 2400.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650
Dow Jones Transport Index has retraced over several weeks to test support at 5000. Respect would signal another attempt at 5600, while failure would indicate that momentum is slowing.
* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 6000 – 4500 ) = 5500
