Category: Countries & Regions

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Aussie Dollar and Canada’s Loonie encounter resistance

The Aussie Dollar is testing short-term support at $1.06, the lower peak at $1.08 warning of selling pressure. Breach of the secondary rising trendline (and support at $1.06) would warn of a correction to the long-term trendline around $1.02. Recovery above $1.08, however, would signal a fresh primary advance with a long-term target of $1.20*.

Australian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

Canada’s Loonie continues to consolidate below $1.01 on the weekly chart, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would confirm, offering an initial target of $1.06*.

Canadian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Both the Aussie and the Loonie are strongly influenced by commodity prices. If the CRB Commodities Index breaks resistance, expect both currencies to follow — though Canada will benefit more from higher oil prices.

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Canada: Potential breakouts

A quick follow-up on the three stocks mentioned earlier in the week.

You can run the screen yourself on Incredible Charts:

  1. Open the Stock Screener
  2. Click the Shared tab
  3. Click the Edit link next to #48895 TMX Potential Breakouts
  4. Review the filters then click the Run Screen button.

Here is what to look for:

Husky Energy (HSE) broke through resistance at 26.00. 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillator rises above zero, confirming a primary up-trend. 21-day Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero indicates buying pressure.

HSE: Husky Energy

Crew Energy (CR) broke resistance a few weeks ago and is now retracing to test the new support level.  Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend.

CR: Crew Energy

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is testing resistance at 55.00. Breakout would confirm the strong buying pressure and 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero.

BNS: Bank of Nova Scotia

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Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 index respected its rising trendline on the weekly chart, indicating continuation of the advance to test 4400. Breakout above 4400 would indicate the start of a primary up-trend, while recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

Bullish divergence on the daily chart shows medium-term buying pressure signaled by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Breakout above 4300 would indicate a test of 4400.

ASX 200 Index

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China & Hong Kong

The Shanghai Composite Index broke out of its descending trend channel, indicating that a bottom is forming. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum, however, remains a long way below zero, indicating weakness. Look for a retracement to test support at 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index displays a strong up-trend since breaking resistance at 20,000. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but buying pressure, best illustrated by the strong rise on (medium-term) 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, is likely to prevail.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

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Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke through resistance at 9000 to offer a weak primary up-trend signal: there is no higher trough on the weekly chart. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero supports the trend change, but wait for retracement to test the rising trendline.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9000 + ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 10000

The Seoul Composite Index is stronger, having already completed a higher trough. Target for the primary advance is 2150*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough that respects the zero line would further strengthen the signal.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

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Canada: TSX 60 and potential breakouts

The TSX 60 index is consolidating in a narrow band between 700 and 715. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Target for the initial advance is 790.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

A screen of stocks with low Momentum but high buying pressure, as indicated by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, reveals a list of 93 potential breakouts (after filtering out stocks with daily Value/Turnover traded of less than $1 million). Husky Energy [HSE], Crew Energy [CR] and Bank of Nova Scotia [BNS] are three that look interesting.

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India Singapore breakout

India’s Nifty Index broke through resistance at 5400, following breakout from its downward trend channel, to signal the start of a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal.

NSE/S&P Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

The Sensex Index broke through 18000 to confirm the Nifty signal, following an earlier bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Target for the advance is 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

Singapore Straits Times Index cleared resistance at 2900, signaling a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new support level.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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Europe Reaches a Greek Deal – WSJ.com

Greece ended months of uncertainty as it secured a new bailout and debt-restructuring agreement during a marathon negotiating session of euro-zone finance ministers, but the deal leaves unanswered questions about whether Greece will be able to meet the terms of the accord……

Officials said the meeting, which lasted nearly 13 hours, produced a plan that would reduce Greece’s debt to just over 120% of gross domestic product by 2020.

via Europe Reaches a Greek Deal – WSJ.com.

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