Countries & Regions Archives - Page 290 of 372

April 11, 2012

Fedex warns of economic slow-down

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal, breaking through the neckline at $88. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow already warns of strong selling pressure. Follow-through below medium-term support at $85 would confirm a primary down-trend. A declining Fedex is associated with lower transport volumes and slowing activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 7, 2012

"The Big Easing" by Daniel Gros | Project Syndicate

The banks that are parking their money [about €1 trillion] at the ECB receiving only 0.25% interest are clearly not the same ones that are taking out three-year loans [€1.15 trillion] at 1%. The deposits come largely from northern European banks mainly German and Dutch, and LTRO loans go largely to banks in southern Europe mainly Italy and Spain. In other words, the ECB has become the central counterparty to a banking system that is de facto segmented along national lines. The real problem for the ECB is that it is not properly insured against the credit risk that it is taking on. The 0.75% spread between deposit and lending rates yielding €7.5 billion per year does not provide much of a cushion against the losses that are looming in Greece, where the ECB has €130 billion at stake.

via “The Big Easing” by Daniel Gros | Project Syndicate.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 5, 2012

Australia's Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com

Cynthia Koons: Not only were [Australian] exports down, but imports declined too. Imports of goods for consumption fell 7%, reflecting caution in Australian households. Capital goods imports fell by 5%, a number that should be a particular concern for policy makers: A slowdown in purchases of machinery and equipment could be an early sign that investment in Australia’s resources boom is weakening.

via Heard on the Street: Australia’s Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 5, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling & Yen

The Euro continues in a primary down-trend, with 63-day Twiggs Momentum respecting the zero line from below. Failure of medium-term support at $1.30 would indicate another test of primary support at $1.26. And breach of $1.26 would warn of a decline to $1.18*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.34 – 1.26 ) = 1.18

The rise above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests that Pound Sterling commenced a primary up-trend. But respect of resistance at $1.60 indicates another test of $1.56. Respect of $1.56 would signal another advance, while failure would warn of a primary decline with a target of $1.46*.

Pound Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

The Greenback is retracing against the Japanese Yen after a strong rally. A short correction is likely and would signal another strong advance; breakout above ¥84 would offer a target of ¥88*. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm the primary up-trend.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 80 ) = 88

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 4, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar & Canada's Loonie

The Aussie Dollar broke medium-term support at $1.04 — in response to lower than expected resources exports to China and RBA hints at further rate cuts. Expect a strong correction, testing parity and possibly primary support at $0.97. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate trend weakness but suggests a ranging market, with the indicator oscillating around zero, rather than a primary down-trend.

Australian Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie is more resilient because of stronger crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal an advance to $1.06. Reversal below $0.995 is less likely but would warn of another correction — especially if crude oil weakens.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Brazil & South Africa

Brazil’s Bovespa Index is in a primary up-trend but currently undergoing a correction. Respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line would strengthen the signal.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 50 ) = 70

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index indicates medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. A correction that respects support at 33000 would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 36000*.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 34.5 + ( 34.5 – 33 ) = 36

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

UK & Europe correction

Dow Jones Europe Index respected resistance at 260, suggesting another correction. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure; but a trough that respects the zero line would signal a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 240 would also suggest an up-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test of support at 5600. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend, as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5700 – 5100 ) = 6300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Canada: TSX 60 resistance

Canada’s TSX 60 index is testing medium-term support at 695/700. Another large 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend — as would breakout above 730. Initial target for the advance would be 790*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Bearish divergence for US indices

Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 – 1150) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 index encountered resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow over the last two weeks warns of a correction. Breach of the secondary, rising trendline would indicate a correction to the long-term trendline at 2500.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 -2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex warns of a double-top reversal. Longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at 88 would signal a primary down-trend — and declining activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 98 – 88 ) = 78

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex Index continues to test support at 17000. A trough above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong buying pressure. Recovery above 18000 would confirm a primary advance to 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

The Nifty Index displays a similar pattern. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Recovery above 5400 would signal an advance to 6200*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

Singapore Straits Times Index is already in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3040 would confirm an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.