S&P 500 and Europe cause ASX 200 to hesitate

Mildly bearish sentiment in the US and Europe is causing hesitancy on the ASX 200, while China continues to consolidate above long-term support.

The S&P 500 retreated below resistance at 1700, indicating a test of support at 1675. Longish tails on the last two candles are indicative of buying.  Recovery above 1700 would signal continuation of the advance to 1800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, reflects selling pressure and breach of 1675 is more likely, testing the stronger support level at 1650. Primary support is some way off at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

Recovery of Dow Jones Europe Index above 290 indicates an advance to 310*. Follow-through above 295 strengthens the signal, but divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests that a top may be forming. Reversal of TMO below zero would strengthen the warning.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 290+ ( 290 – 270 ) = 310

China’s Shanghai Index holds steady above long-term support at 1950. Breakout above 2100 would suggest a rally to the downward trendline, but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure and breach of support at 1950 would offer a target of 1750*.

Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 1950 – ( 2150 – 1950 ) = 1750

Australia’s ASX 200 found support at 5000 after falling sharply on Wednesday. Recovery above 5100 would indicate another test of 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow close to zero suggests hesitancy. Breach of 5000 is as likely, and would test the stronger support level of 4850, providing a more robust foundation for further advances.

ASX 200 Index

The Magical World Where McDonald’s Pays $15 an Hour? It’s Australia | The Atlantic

Jordan Weissmann compares wages paid to McDonalds workers in Australia and the US, raising four interesting points.

Firstly, McDonalds (or “Maccas” if we use its colloquial name in Australia) is profitable in both low-wage and high-wage countries:

The land down under is, of course, not the only high-wage country in the world where McDonald’s does lucrative business. The company actually earns more revenue out of Europe than it does from the United States. France, with its roughly $12.00 hourly minimum, has more than 1,200 locations. Australia has about 900.

They achieve this partly through higher prices, but also through adjusting their staff structure in Australia.

The country allows lower pay for teenagers, and the labor deal McDonald’s struck with its employees currently pays 16-year-olds roughly US$8-an-hour, not altogether different from what they’d make in the states. In an email, Greg Bamber, a professor at Australia’s Monash University who has studied labor relations in the country’s fast food industry, told me that as a result, McDonald’s relies heavily on young workers in Australia. It’s a specific quirk of the country’s wage system. But it goes to show that even in generally high-pay countries, restaurants try to save on labor where they can.

They also focus on increased productivity.

It stands to reason that in places like Europe and Australia, managers have found ways to get more mileage out of their staff as well. Or if not, they’ve at least managed to replace a few of them with computers. As Michael Schaefer, an analyst with Euromonitor International, told me, fast food franchises in Europe have been some of the earliest adopters of touchscreen kiosks that let customers order without a cashier. As always, the peril of making employees more expensive is that machines become cheaper in comparison.

That is one of the primary dangers of high minimum wages: automation is used to improve employee productivity and shrink the required workforce. Shrinking the national wage bill might seem like good business sense, but if we look at this on a macro scale, reduced incomes lead to reduced consumption and falling sales.

Finally, McDonald’s have attempted to add value to their product range, moving slightly more up-market in order to capture higher prices.

McDonald’s has also helped its bottom line abroad by experimenting with higher margin menu items while trying to court more affluent customers. Way back in 1993, for instance, Australia became home to the first McCafe coffee shops, which sell highly profitable espresso drinks. During the last decade, meanwhile, the company gave its European restaurants a designer make-over and began offering more localized menus meant to draw a higher spending crowd.

If we take McDonald’s as a microcosm of the entire economy, the trade-offs and benefits (or lack thereof) are evident. Funding wage hikes out of increased prices (for the same quality products) is futile. It adds no benefit: the increased wage is eroded by higher prices. Reduced wages for younger workers simply disadvantages older workers, excluding them from certain jobs. Increased productivity — higher sales per employee — on the other hand, can benefit the entire economy.

Improved training or increased automation may increase output, but run the risk of shrinking the jobs pool — unless new jobs created in training or manufacturing are sufficient to offset this. Product innovation, on the other hand, is an immediate win, raising sales while encouraging job growth in new support industries.

How do we encourage product innovation? Higher minimum wages is not the answer. Nor, on its own, is increased investment in research and education. What is needed is a focus on international competitiveness: reducing red tape, ensuring basic goods and services such as electricity, water, shipping and transport are competitively priced, lowering taxes and stabilizing exchange rates. That would encourage the establishment of new industry locally rather than exporting skills and know-how to foreign shores. We need a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, rather than lip-service from politicians.

Read more at The Magical World Where McDonald's Pays $15 an Hour? It's Australia – Jordan Weissmann – The Atlantic.

Henry Thornton | The recession we did not need to have

Henry Thornton expresses his opinion on the grim state of the Australian economy:

The Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates today. The economy is facing such a grim future that one can support such an outcome. But no-one, not even the Reserve Bank, is facing the main problem facing Australia, which is double-digit cost disequilibrium – a severe lack of international competitiveness.

Just like Treasury’s failure to be ahead of the curve in forecasting, the Reserve Bank’s apparent failure to understand our most important economic problem is bad news for all Australians….

Read more at Henry Thornton – The recession we did not need to have.

Hat tip to Houses & Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au.

Forex: Euro tests resistance, Aussie breaks support

The Euro broke medium-term resistance at $1.32 and is testing the next level at $1.34. Breakout would indicate a primary advance, while respect of resistance (indicated by reversal below $1.32) would warn of another test of primary support at $1.27. Close oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around the zero line reflects hesitancy.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Sterling is testing primary support at €1.135 against the euro. Long tails indicate buying pressure and recovery above €1.165 would suggest that a bottom is forming. Breakout above €1.19 would complete a double bottom with a target of €1.24.  Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

Against the greenback, Sterling is testing medium-term resistance at $1.54. Last week’s long tail suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of $1.575. Respect is less likely, but would indicate another test of primary support at $1.485. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

Sterling/Euro

The greenback is oscillating around resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98 remains as likely, however, and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.96 would test the primary level at $0.94/$0.945. Failure of primary support would offer a long-term target of $0.84*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

Against the Aussie Dollar, the Loonie remains in a strong up-trend .

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar also continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.90 suggests a decline to $0.87*, but the long-term target is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.90 – ( 0.93 – 0.90 ) = 0.87; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

ASX 200 completes flag

The ASX 200 broke out of its narrow flag, indicating an advance to 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow supports the signal. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would test medium-term support at 4850. The ASX 200 Volatility Index ($XVI) remains below 15 — a bullish sign.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

 

S&P 500 follows through

The S&P 500 followed through above resistance at 1700, indicating an advance to 1800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow  suggests selling pressure, but this is not as pronounced on the weekly chart and a peak above the May high would negate this. Reversal below support at 1675 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 82.50. Breakout would indicate the correction is over, suggesting an advance to 84.50. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Dollar Index

We received some bad data for gold from our Forex & Precious metals data supplier. Here is the corrected chart and our revised comments:

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1350 – 1200 ) = 1050

Gold continues to test support at $1300/ounce. Breach would suggest another test of primary support at $1200, while failure of primary support would offer a target of $1050*. Dollar Index breakout above 82.50 would strengthen the bear signal. Recovery above 1350 is less likely, but would indicate continuation of the rally to $1400/ounce.

China exports

Shipping rates for container vessels remain at depressed levels, close to the lows of 2009, according to the The Harper Petersen Index from ship brokers Harper Petersen & Co. This reflects the depressed level of global trade in manufactured goods. Major exporters like China are the most severely affected.

Harper Petersen Index

Asia retreats but ASX 200 soldiers on

Japan opened sharply lower on Monday, with Dow Jones Japan Index testing its long-term rising trendline at 75. Failure of support at 69 would signal a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Japan Index

The Nikkei 225 is similarly testing its rising trendline. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate selling pressure. Failure of support at 12500 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely but would test 16000.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex found resistance at 20200, retreating toward its rising trendline. Penetration of the trendline would warn the trend is weakening, while failure of support at 18500 would signal a primary down-trend. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicate moderate buying pressure. Respect of support at 19000 would suggest another primary advance; confirmed if resistance at 20200 is broken.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow flag above the new support level at 5000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a test of the May peak at 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

The ASX 200 Volatility Index below 15 also indicates low market risk — a bullish sign.
ASX Volatility Index

Europe: DAX and FTSE hesitant

Germany’s DAX is retracing, but as long as it respects medium-term support at 8000, the primary advance is intact. Breakout above resistance at 8500 would offer a long-term target of 9500*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

The FTSE 100 displays selling pressure, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow retreating below zero. Reversal below 6500 would warn of another correction. Respect of 6500 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to 6900/7000.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6750 + ( 6750 – 6000 ) = 7500

Italy’s MIB Index is heading for a test of 17500 after breaking resistance at 16000. Repeated troughs above zero on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow suggest a healthy up-trend.
MIB Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index broke resistance at 800, indicating a rally to 900. Long-term 13-week Twiggs Money Flow recovered above zero but remains weak. Reversal below 760 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of the 2012 low at 600.
Madrid General Index

How urban Chinese workers helped cause the great recession | Quartz

Hillary Rosner describes how the inflow of savings from China contributed to the US sub-prime crisis:

“The foreign reserve holdings of U.S. Dollars,” the researchers write, “which had been at less than 11% of U.S. GDP prior to 2000, grew rapidly after 2002; in fact they almost doubled over the 5-year period from 2002 to 2007.”

Read more at How urban Chinese workers helped cause the great recession – Quartz.