The S&P 500 found support at 1775, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns the correction is not yet over. Breach of 1775 would indicate a test of the ascending trendline and medium-term support at 1730. Recovery above 1810 is less likely, but would suggest an accelerating up-trend — with sharper gains and shorter retracements.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings below 20 are indicative of a bull market.
The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1780; breakout would warn of a correction. Initial support is at 1710, with primary support and the long-term trendline at 1630. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 1810 is now unlikely.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
The ASX 200 is already undergoing a correction after breaking support at 5300. Failure of support between 4900 and 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates far more severe selling pressure. A fall below zero would suggest reversal to a primary down-trend, but only breach of 4650 would confirm.
From Houses & Holes
at 9:01am on December 10, 2013:
While the nation continues to debate whether we should let this business go or bail out that business, the real issue continues to be ignored. Indeed it is so far off the radar that cheap shot commentators like Michael Pascoe can make wise cracks about it while the economy burns.
But it’s not funny. It’s not even a little bit amusing. Australians are being slaughtered by emerging markets; gutted by the Japanese; truncated by the Americans and butchered by the Europeans.
I am talking about the global currency war that we are comprehensively losing while having our backs turned.
Qantas, Graincorp, Holden, Electrolux. These are all iconic Australian businesses that have absolutely no reason to fail. Two are virtual monopolies that should be making money on a conveyor belt. The third and fourth are high tech industries that should be tailor made for a smart, developed economy.
But instead all four are failing because they can’t compete with leaner and meaner foreign operations.
Qantas can’t get cheap enough finance and has no access to cheap fuel the way Middle Eastern airlines do. Graincorp is saddled with out-dated infrastructure and can’t seem to raise the capital to renovate itself despite a supposed “dining boom”. Detroit has confessed that Holden is being pulled out owing to a structurally higher dollar and labour costs. Electrolux is the same.
Metals refining, surely an area in which we should have a distinct advantage, is also failing, with last week’s Gove refinery the latest casualty. Processed food exports haven’t grown since 2005 while raw agricultural foodstuffs have jumped. We’ve already lost half of our petrol refining capacity. The Productivity Commission nails all three for dragging down productivity growth owing to high wages, low investment and idle capacity (read the dollar):
As these various businesses pack up their kits, our manufacturing sector is headed for an unbelievable 5% of GDP, by far the lowest in the OECD (making Luxembourg look like an industrial powerhouse) and approaching or past a point at which the inability to produce material for ourselves is also a strategic risk.
Most disconcerting of all is that this is transpiring as we head into a great reckoning in the wider economy. The mining boom is ending, its fabulous capital wave is subsiding, its huge ramp up in employment is ebbing, and over the next three years it will recede as fast as any business investment correction in the last one hundred years. We’ve plenty more gas but are too expensive to extract it. Perth’s Magnolia LNG is headed to Louisiana to produce gas there instead.
The plan to build more unproductive houses to fill the void is a classic kick of the can, adding to capex briefly but adding nothing to productive capacity. In the mean time it keeps our wages and interest rate structure temporarily high and makes the underlying problem worse.
The prospects for productive Australian industry are waning daily. Yet the dollar is still sitting at 90 cents, boosted by the same countries’ central banks that are feasting on our production, and pouring Dutch disease into our ears while we sit back and debate which business is worth saving.
The issue is not who do we bail out. It is how do we reverse the trend of uncompetitiveness that is sweeping everything offshore that is not buried in, or cemented into, the ground. The currency must be actively lowered or it will only drop when the economy does, leaving us bereft of a rebound.
Australian disease is entering its terminal phase, and boy, is it going to be one for the text books.
Reproduced with permission from Macrobusiness.com.au
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 retreated below the first line of support at 3000, warning of a correction to the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum above zero continues to suggest a primary up-trend. A trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above 3100 is now unlikely, but would signal an advance to 3500*.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500
Germany’s DAX continues a primary advance with a long-term target of 10000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Reversal below 9000, however, would warn of a correction.
* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 5000 ) = 10000
France’s CAC-40 also displays long-term buying pressure, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, but retreat below the new support level at 4200 warns of a correction. Recovery above 4200 is now unlikely, but would indicate an advance to 4400*.
* Target calculation: 4000 + ( 4000 – 3600 ) = 4400
Bearish divergence on the FTSE 100, 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicates selling pressure and breach of support at 6600 signals a correction. Follow-through below the lower border of the flag formation (6500) would confirm. Failure of primary support at 6400 and breach of the rising trendline would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000
Despite bullish signs in Japan, China and the US, the ASX 200 is undergoing a correction. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of medium-term support between 4900 and 5000 would indicate a test of primary support at 4650. Respect of medium-term support seems as likely, however, and would signal a healthy primary up-trend — as would a Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.
The ASX 200 VIX index recovered above 15, but continues to indicate low market risk.
The S&P 500 has reached its target of 1800 for the current advance, suggesting the market is due for a correction. But there is no sign of selling pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Follow-through above 1820 would suggest an accelerating up-trend — with sharper gains and shorter retracements. Reversal below short-term support at 1780 is less likely, but would warn of a correction.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to indicate a bull market, with readings below 15.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is retracing to test its new support level around 15000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the base of the formation at 12500.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500
China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 2250. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 2450. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index retreated from resistance at 24000. Expect short-term support at 23500. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a correction. Breakout above 24000 is less likely, but would signal a primary advance to 24500, with a long-term target of 25500*.
* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500
India’s Sensex also warns of selling pressure, with a bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Respect of resistance at 21000/21200 would strengthen the warning. And reversal below 20200 would signal a correction. Breakout above 21200 is less likely, but would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000
The Euro is rallying for another test of resistance at $1.37 after finding support at $1.3350 against the greenback. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggest a healthy up-trend. Breakout above $1.37 would signal an advance to $1.40*. Respect of resistance, indicated by reversal below the secondary rising trendline, would, however, warn of a correction to the primary trendline at $1.31.
* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.34 ) = 1.40
Sterling breakout above resistance at €1.20 signals a primary up-trend. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Target for the advance is €1.23*. Reversal below €1.19 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of €1.1650.
* Target calculation: 1.20 + ( 1.20 – 1.17 ) = 1.23
The Greenback is likely to retrace to test the new support level at ¥101 Japanese Yen. Respect would confirm an advance with a target of ¥108*. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal. Reversal below ¥101 is unlikely, penetration of the rising trendline warning of trend weakness.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 1.08
Canada’s Loonie broke primary support at $0.94, signaling another decline with a target of $0.915*. A peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal. Recovery above $0.945 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.
* Target calculation: 0.945 – ( 0.975 – 0.945 ) = 0.915
The Aussie Dollar is heading for a test of primary support at $0.89. The peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum signals continuation of the down-trend. Breakout below $0.89 would offer a long-term target of $0.81*, while respect of support would suggest a rally to $0.93. The RBA needs a weaker Aussie Dollar, without lowering interest rates, and will do all it can to assist the decline.
* Target calculation: 0.89 – ( 0.97 – 0.89 ) = 0.81
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is likely to retrace to test its new support level at 15000. Respect would negate the bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow and confirm the long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline, however, would warn of a correction to 13000.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500
China’s Shanghai Composite is consolidating between 2100 and 2250. Upward breakout would suggest a test of the descending trendline at 2450 on the monthly chart. Momentum remains weak and reversal below 2100 is as likely, which would test primary support at 1950.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing this year’s high of 24000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 24000 is likely and would signal a primary advance to 24500, with a long-term target of 25500*. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500.
* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500
India’s Sensex is headed for a test of 21200 after respecting support at 20200. Breakout above its 2007/2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 18000.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000
The ASX 200 is undergoing a correction after breaching the rising trendline and support at 5290/5300. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate a healthy (primary) up-trend. There are plenty of support levels evident on the chart, but I would expect strongest support around 4900 and the 2009/2011 highs of 5000.
The ASX 200 VIX index, below 15, continues to indicate low market risk.
The FTSE 100 continues to test support at 6600. Upward breakout from the recent flag formation would signal an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure, but a trough above zero would be a long-term bull signal. Breach of 6600 would warn of a correction to primary support and the rising trendline at 6400.
* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 continues its test of resistance at 3100 on the monthly chart. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 3100 would signal an advance to 3500*. Reversal below 3000 is unlikely, but would indicate a correction to the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500
Germany’s DAX leads the way with a strong advance to 9500*. Steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals strong buying pressure. Respect of the target at 9500 would suggest a correction to the rising trendline and support at 8500.
* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500
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