The ASX 200 rallied after a strong showing in US and Chinese markets. Recovery above 5550 would suggest an advance to 5750. Completion of another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below the rising trendline now appears unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 5050.
* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5350 ) = 5750
Retreat of the ASX 200 VIX below 15 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index overcame resistance at 2150/2200 and is headed for a test of 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2250 would confirm a primary up-trend. Reversal below 2150 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1990/2000. Stimulatory measures by the PBOC may lift China’s economy in the medium-term, but are likely to prove unsustainable in the long-term.
* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500
Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow on India’s Sensex continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of support at 25000 would indicate a correction to the primary trendline. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, would suggest another advance. Breakout above 26000 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 15000 ) = 27000
Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke support at 15000, but Monday’s recovery warns of a bear trap. Recovery above 15500 would suggest a rally to 16000*. Reversal below 15000, however, would warn of a test of primary support at 14000. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 16000
Germany’s DAX respected primary support at 9000. Follow-through above last week’s high at 9250 would suggest another attempt at 9750. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of primary support at 8900/9000, however, would signal a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 9750 + ( 9750 – 9000 ) = 10500
Canada’s TSX 60 continues to test support at 865/870. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Respect of the primary trendline would suggest another primary advance. Breakout above the 2008 high of 900 would confirm. Penetration of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness and a correction to 800/820.
Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to test medium-term support at the December high of 16500. Breach of support would warn of a correction to the primary trendline — at 16000 — while respect of support would indicate another attempt at 17000. Failure of primary support at 15400/15600 remains unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a down-trend. Completion of another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would suggest long-term buying pressure and another primary advance.
* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500
The S&P 500 found support at 1900. Recovery above 1950 would suggest another advance. Breach of primary support at 1750 remains unlikely. Completion of a higher trough on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, with recovery above 32%, would indicate that buyers are back in control.
* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated from its recent high, suggesting continuation of the bull market.
Joe Weisenthal quotes Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics:
For Euroland, the big picture is that the economy is in its seventh year of depression. On our estimate of a 0.7% contraction in the second quarter, GDP was still 3.2% lower than it was in the first quarter of 2008, when the depression began. Euroland’s economy actually contracted in the first quarter of this year when you exclude Germany’s unexpected surge to a 3.3% annualized rate of growth. Only people who were misled by Markit’s untested and unproven PMIs believed that such growth was real and sustainable. Our estimate of second quarter GDP for the Euro Zone includes a contraction of Germany’s economy at a 2% annualized rate, reversing the windfall in the unexplained and inexplicable first quarter spurt. If our forecast proves correct, average GDP growth for Germany in the first half of 2014 will work out to 0.7% at an annualized rate, clearly less than potential but very much in line with the experience over the last few years. Our estimate for France’s economy is a more horrible contraction of 1.1% for the quarter, or 4.3% at an annualized rate.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been shrinking its balance sheet since 2012 while the Fed has been expanding. Not hard to figure out why the Monetary Union (EMU) is undergoing a contraction.
Especially when private (nonfinancial) credit is contracting.
Read more at European Depression – Business Insider.
Nicholas Kristof writes in the New York Times:
ONE delusion common among America’s successful people is that they triumphed just because of hard work and intelligence. In fact, their big break came when they were conceived in middle-class American families who loved them, read them stories, and nurtured them with Little League sports, library cards and music lessons. They were programmed for success by the time they were zygotes.Yet many are oblivious of their own advantages, and of other people’s disadvantages.
….This crisis in working-class America doesn’t get the attention it deserves, perhaps because most of us in the chattering class aren’t a part of it.
There are steps that could help, including a higher minimum wage, early childhood programs, and a focus on education as an escalator to opportunity. But the essential starting point is empathy.
Read more at Is a Hard Life Inherited? – NYTimes.com.
From Greg McKenna:
The AFR reports ….the Australian Bankers Association CEO Steven Munchenberg said the banks are “concerned that if some of the statements in the interim report – that Australia’s capital is middle of the road, that housing is a systemic risk – are allowed to remain unchallenged and are then taken out of context that is going to cause us a lot of future grief”.
Munchenberg says the Inquiry hasn’t calculated the capital ratios correctly.
“The approach was simplified and didn’t take into account the complexities and nuances of how capital is determined in Australia, including deductions required by APRA and some of the areas where APRA has adopted a more conservative approach, and as a result underestimated the amount of capital in Australia relative to overseas”, he told the AFR.
Forget the nuances and comparisons to the plight of other banks. Australian banks need to almost double their capital and adopt a more conservative approach to home mortgage lending if they are to withstand future shocks. 3 to 5 percent capital against total exposure doesn’t get you very far. The history of low mortgage failures over the last 3 decades, in an expansionary phase of the credit market, is unlikely to be repeated during a contraction.
Read more at Australia's Major Banks Say The Murray Enquiry Used The Wrong Numbers To Calculate Capital | Business Insider.
Interesting view from Cullen Roche:
Most fixed income traders view long rates as a function of the economy and short rates as a function of the Fed’s views on the economy. So, when the Fed increases rates it means that the Fed thinks the economy is improving and needs some tightening so it doesn’t cause the Fed to create too much inflation and overheat the economy. But fixed income traders account for this and front-run the Fed’s thinking by trying to anticipate their views on the economy. Said more simply – long rates are a function of short rates for the most part. And the fact that long rates are remaining low means that fixed income traders increasingly believe that we’re in a permanent state of low interest rates.
Read more at Why is the Yield Curve Flattening? | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.
Summary:
Dow Jones Europe Index is testing the primary trendline and support at 315. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 315 would confirm. Respect of primary support and recovery above 330, however, would suggest that the primary trend is intact.
Germany’s DAX continues to test primary support at 9000. A long tail on Friday suggests short-term support. Failure of support would warn of a decline to 8000*, while respect would suggest another test of 10000.
* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000
The S&P 500 found support at 1900 and recovery above 1950 would indicate another advance. The latest decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is relatively small and recovery above its July high would suggest that buyers have taken control. Failure of 1900, however, would warn that the primary trend is slowing.
* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked upwards, to between 16 and 17, but remains low by historical standards and continues to suggest a bull market.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index encountered selling pressure below resistance at 2250, with tall wicks/shadows on the last two weekly candles and a sharp fall in 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below 2150 would warn of another test of primary support at 1990/2000. Follow-through above 2250, however, would confirm a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
The ASX 200 is heading for a test of support at 5350/5400 and the primary trendline. Direction will largely be influenced by the US and Chinese markets, but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero — after long-term bearish divergence — would warn of strong selling pressure. Recovery above 5550 is unlikely at present, but would suggest another advance. Reversal below 5050 is also unlikely, but would signal a trend change.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
