Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for a test of 10,000 after breaking resistance at 9,000 three weeks ago. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow rising strongly indicates good buying pressure. Expect some retracement or consolidation at 10,000, but the primary trend is up and breakout above 10,000 would offer a target of 11,000*.
* Target calculation: 10,000 + ( 10,000 – 9,000 ) = 11,000
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3000 would confirm the advance to 3200*. Any retracement is likely to encounter support at 2900.
* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200
The Seoul Composite Index shows a similar pattern, running into medium-term resistance between 2000 and 2050. Expect good support at 1950. Breakout above 2050 would confirm the advance to 2200.
* Target calculation: 1950 + (1950 – 1750 ) = 2150
The Euro is in a primary down-trend despite the latest rally, headed for a test of the descending trendline. Expect retracement to test support at $1.32; breach of $1.30 would warn of another test of primary support (at $1.26).
* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22
Pound Sterling broke its descending trendline several weeks ago and is headed for a test of resistance at $1.62. Upward breakout is unlikely at present, but recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.
The US Dollar is retracing to test the new support level after breaking long-term resistance at 80 Japanese Yen. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero, after a long-term bullish divergence, indicates a primary up-trend. Expect a test of the 2011 high at ¥85.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Another long-term (monthly) chart. This time of Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index, which has rallied off support at 8,000. Expect resistance at 10,000 but a breakout would signal that a bottom is forming. Recovery above 11000 would indicate a new primary up-trend.
TOKYO—As the yen finally buckles versus the dollar, Japan’s exporting manufacturers are sitting on potential operating-profit gains that could be worth billions of dollars on paper, likely triggering some higher earnings forecasts if current trends persist.
….Like many of Japan’s biggest companies, the big three auto makers—Toyota Motor Co., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co.—are heavily exposed to exchange-rate fluctuations. Estimates by the three show that every ¥1 variation in the dollar exchange rate has an impact of ¥67 billion on their combined operating profit. That means the dollar’s gains since the central bank’s easing could notionally assist the three auto makers’ annual operating profit to the tune of ¥165 billion, or more than $2 billion at recent exchange rates.
The euro broke medium-term resistance at $1.32, indicating a rally to test the descending trendline at $1.38*. Momentum is rising but the primary trend remains downward.
* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.38
Pound Sterling broke its descending trendline, but respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. A fall below $1.565 (the last two weeks low) would warn of another test of primary support at $1.530. Recovery above $1.590 is less likely, but would indicate a rally to test $1.620.
The greenback broke through resistance at ¥80 and is now retracing to test its new support level. Respect would confirm a primary up-trend, signaled by the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum (and its recovery above zero).
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The Aussie Dollar consolidated against the South African Rand in recent months after a long appreciation. 63-day Twiggs Momentum is declining and breakout below R8.00 would warn of a correction to the rising trendline, with a target of R7.50*. Upward breakout, however, would offer an initial target of R9.00.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke through resistance at 9000 to offer a weak primary up-trend signal: there is no higher trough on the weekly chart. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero supports the trend change, but wait for retracement to test the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 9000 + ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 10000
The Seoul Composite Index is stronger, having already completed a higher trough. Target for the primary advance is 2150*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough that respects the zero line would further strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150
The US Dollar broke its 5-year down-trend against the Japanese Yen. Penetration of the descending trendline from 2007 indicates that a bottom is forming. Breakout above resistance at ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥86, confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing resistance at 9000 but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of long-term sellers. Breakout would offer a target of 10000, while reversal below 8000 would signal a decline to 7000.
* Target calculation: 9000 + ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 10000
Seoul’s Composite Index broke through resistance but is now retracing to test the new support level at 1950. Respect of the rising trendline on the weekly chart, and respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, would both strengthen the bull signal. Target for the advance is 2150*.
* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150
Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index. Breakout below the rising trendline would indicate another primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 8100 is broken.
* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000
Seoul Composite Index, on the other hand, followed through above 1950 to strengthen the primary up-trend (signal). Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its late-2011 high would confirm the signal.
* Target calculation: 1950 + (1950 – 1750 ) = 2150
