Japan & Korea Archives - Page 14 of 31

August 13, 2013

EconoMonitor | Japan’s Three Arrows―Will They Fly?

Jerry Schiff writes:

We see encouraging signs that the desired changes to the economy are beginning to take place. Growth in the first quarter rose by an impressive 4¼ percent seasonally adjusted annual rate. Equity markets are up by some 40 percent for the year. Exports appear to be recovering. Credit growth has turned positive. Consumer and business confidence have picked up. And Inflation expectations are beginning to rise…… But the transformation is far from complete. In particular, higher investment and wages — two keys for ultimate success — are not yet observed.

August 13, 2013

China rally spurs ASX advance

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rallied from support at 1950 to test medium-term resistance at 2100 on the weekly chart. Breakout would indicate a test of the descending trendline at 2200. The primary trend is down, but penetration of the trendline would suggest that a bottom has formed.

Shanghai Composite Index

The Shenzhen Composite Index has been in a primary up-trend since May, but displayed weakness with a second, shaky test of support at 900. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above the last high at 1040 would confirm — a bullish sign for the Shanghai Composite.

Shenzhen Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing medium-term support at 13500. Breach would indicate a correction to primary support at 12500, but respect of the zero line by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would suggest the primary up-trend is intact. Recovery above 14500 would strengthen the signal.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex respected primary support at 18500. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate moderate buying pressure. Expect another test of resistance at 20500 (i.e. a test of 20500 is likely). Breach of support, while unlikely, would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if there is follow-through below 18000.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 5120, signaling an advance to the May peak at 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to at least 4850.

ASX 200 Index

Breakout above 5250 would indicate another advance, but high volatility, shown by the broadening formation of the last few months, will require further evidence to confirm this.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

August 5, 2013

Forex: Euro tests resistance, Aussie breaks support

The Euro broke medium-term resistance at $1.32 and is testing the next level at $1.34. Breakout would indicate a primary advance, while respect of resistance (indicated by reversal below $1.32) would warn of another test of primary support at $1.27. Close oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around the zero line reflects hesitancy.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Sterling is testing primary support at €1.135 against the euro. Long tails indicate buying pressure and recovery above €1.165 would suggest that a bottom is forming. Breakout above €1.19 would complete a double bottom with a target of €1.24. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

Against the greenback, Sterling is testing medium-term resistance at $1.54. Last week’s long tail suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of $1.575. Respect is less likely, but would indicate another test of primary support at $1.485. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

Sterling/Euro

The greenback is oscillating around resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98 remains as likely, however, and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.96 would test the primary level at $0.94/$0.945. Failure of primary support would offer a long-term target of $0.84*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

Against the Aussie Dollar, the Loonie remains in a strong up-trend .

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar also continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.90 suggests a decline to $0.87*, but the long-term target is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.90 – ( 0.93 – 0.90 ) = 0.87; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

July 29, 2013

Asia retreats but ASX 200 soldiers on

Japan opened sharply lower on Monday, with Dow Jones Japan Index testing its long-term rising trendline at 75. Failure of support at 69 would signal a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Japan Index

The Nikkei 225 is similarly testing its rising trendline. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate selling pressure. Failure of support at 12500 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely but would test 16000.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex found resistance at 20200, retreating toward its rising trendline. Penetration of the trendline would warn the trend is weakening, while failure of support at 18500 would signal a primary down-trend. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicate moderate buying pressure. Respect of support at 19000 would suggest another primary advance; confirmed if resistance at 20200 is broken.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow flag above the new support level at 5000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a test of the May peak at 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

The ASX 200 Volatility Index below 15 also indicates low market risk — a bullish sign.
ASX Volatility Index

July 25, 2013

Forex: Euro strengthens, Loonie and Aussie weaken

The Euro continues to test medium-term resistance at $1.32. Respect of primary support at $1.27 is likely, following bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Breakout above $1.32 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above $1.37 would confirm a fresh advance, offering a target of $1.50. Reversal below $1.27 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

The greenback continues to test resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie respected support at $0.94, suggesting a rally to test resistance at parity against the greenback. The monthly chart displays long-term selling pressure, however, and another test of primary support at $0.94 is likely. Breakout would warn offer a target of $0.84*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum already suggests a primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

A monthly chart of the Aussie Dollar displays a similar pattern against the greenback, with a broad top followed by breakout below primary support at $0.95. Support at $0.90 provides temporary respite, but the long-term target is $0.80*. Again, declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

The Aussie/Kiwi cross has exceeded its target of $1.15*, steady decline on the weekly chart reflecting the impact of falling commodity prices. Breakout above the descending trendline would indicate a rally to test resistance at $1.21, but that seems a way off with the decline in 13-week Twiggs Momentum accelerating.

Aussie/Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.21 – ( 1.27 – 1.21 ) = 1.15

July 22, 2013

ASX 200 finds resistance, China tests support

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 found resistance at 15000, but the primary trend is upward and retracement that respects the rising trendline would suggest another advance. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate selling pressure. Follow-through above 15000 would test the earlier high at 16000.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its May peak indicates buying pressure. Respect of resistance at 20200 is unlikely, but would re-test the rising trendline.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow band below resistance at 5000 — a bullish sign suggesting a test of the May peak at 5250. Highs of 5000 in 2010 and 2011 give this level additional significance and breakout would indicate an advance to 5850*. Follow-through above 5250 would confirm. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero merely indicates short-term selling pressure. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 21, 2013

Forex: Euro rallies, Yen weakens, Aussie consolidates

The Euro continues to test medium-term resistance at $1.32 on the weekly chart. Breakout above $1.32 would suggest a primary advance, with a target of $1.40* — confirmed if resistance at $1.34 is broken. But oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero does not indicate a strong trend and respect of resistance remains as likely.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

The greenback recovered above long-term support at ¥100 against the Yen, indicating continuation of the advance, with a target of ¥114*. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would confirm. Reversal below ¥100 is unlikely, but would warn of a test primary support at ¥94; confirmed if support at ¥98.50 is broken.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at $0.96, suggesting a rally to the descending trendline and resistance at $0.98 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.96, however, would warn of another test of support at $0.9450. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum declining while below zero reflects a healthy primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar is consolidating below medium-term resistance at $0.93 against the greenback. Breakout would signal a rally to the primary trendline at $0.96. But the primary trend remains downward and respect of $0.93 would re-test $0.90. The long-term target remains at $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA favors a softer dollar to cushion the impact of falling commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

The impact of the declining resources sector is reflected in the primary down-trend on the Aussie/New Zealand Dollar cross. AUDNZD is approaching its target of $1.15 and breakout above the descending trendline would indicate a rally to test resistance at $1.21. But respect of $1.21 would be likely, suggesting another downward leg on the Aussie/Kiwi cross.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.21 – ( 1.27 – 1.21 ) = 1.15

July 15, 2013April 18, 2024

ASX 200 consolidates while Asia rallies

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continued its rally on Monday, headed for a test of 2150. Last week’s tall shadow (or candlewick) indicates selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and reversal below 1950 would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1700. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

Last week’s dragonfly doji on Japan’s Nikkei 225 also indicates selling pressure, but the higher close hints this may have been resolved. Monday’s open is flat and reversal below last week’s low would warn of another test of primary support at 12500. Penetration of the rising trendline or a lower peak on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would warn of trend weakness, while breach of primary support at 12500 would signal reversal. But that is some way off and follow-through above 15000 would suggest another advance; confirmed if resistance at 16000 is broken.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for another test of resistance at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its May peak would indicate healthy buying pressure. Respect of resistance at 20200 is unlikely, but would re-test the rising trendline.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating below resistance at 5000. Narrow consolidation is a bullish sign, but reversal below 4850 would warn of another test of primary support at 4650. Breakout above 5000 remains likely and would indicate an advance to 5850* — confirmed if resistance at 5250 is broken. Breach of primary support is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate healthy buying pressure.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

July 11, 2013

Forex: Dollar falls sharply against Euro, Aussie, Loonie and Yen

The dollar fell sharply against the Euro and Sterling. The Euro jumped from primary support at $1.28 to medium-term resistance at $1.32. Breakout above $1.32 would suggest a primary advance, with a target of $1.40* — confirmed if resistance at $1.34 is broken. But oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero does not indicate a strong trend and respect of resistance is just as likely.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Pound Sterling is weakening against the euro, breach of medium-term support at €1.16 suggesting a test of primary support at €1.1350 on the weekly chart. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate a strong primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of the 2011 low at €1.10.
Pound Sterling

The greenback retreated below support at ¥100 against the Yen. Recovery above ¥100 would indicate continuation of the advance, with a target of ¥114*. Respect of the new resistance level, however, remains as likely and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at $0.96, suggesting a rally to the descending trendline and resistance at $0.9850 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.96, however, would warn that all bets are off and another test of support at $0.9450 is likely. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar penetrated its secondary descending trendline, suggesting a rally to test the primary trendline at $0.96. But first we need a break of resistance at $0.93, while follow-through above $0.94 would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance, however, would warn of another test of immediate support at $0.90, while the long-term target remains at $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA is not averse to this: they need a softer dollar to cushion the impact of falling commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

July 9, 2013

ASX 200 rallies despite weakness in Asia

An outside day reversal on Japan’s Nikkei 225 warns of retracement to test support at 13500. Respect of support — or a trough above the zero line on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate a healthy up-trend. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 12500.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing long-term support at 1950 — as shown on the monthly chart. Failure of support is likely and would warn of a test of the 2008 low at 1700. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Respect of support at 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 2400/2500.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

India’s Sensex respected its rising trendline and is likely to test resistance at 20000. Breach of resistance would signal a primary advance, with a target of 22000*. Reversal below 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index remains weak after finding support at 3100. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero after bearish divergence would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 3100 would confirm. Recovery above 3300, while unlikely, would signal a fresh primary advance.

Straits Times Index

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 4860, indicating the correction is over. Follow-through above 4900 would strengthen the signal. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates healthy medium-term buying pressure. Breach of resistance at 5000 would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850